Daily Thread Monday 7th October

Good evening - I have started the thread for tomorrow early as I wanted to get a decent priced selection up early as the price may be gone by morning, or not if the bookies realise I am tipping it up.

Wolverhampton
4.30 Arctic Lynx 14-1
Basically the price is way too big, The horse is well drawn and if starting well and getting to the front will have a great advantage as the new surface at Wolverhampton is pretty terrible for kick back and horses can be seen reacting to it in every race. They are promising it will bed in soon but I am not so sure how soon.

The horse ran at Wolverhampton twice last October finishing 3rd and 1st running both times off 80, the mark he runs off once again tomorrow. I fully expect him to gain a place at least and with a little luck could win the race. I personally think he should start around 8-1 which makes him a win bet only in my book and of less interest, but at 14-1 there is a decent profit even if he only manages a place and so represents a great bet at the price.

Good luck all

 

Really nasty fall at full pelt at Ascot last time mate, hope it hasn't left a mark mentally.

 

4.40 Pontefract

Hurry Home Poppa 6/1

The very well bred Hurry Home Poppa ran an eye catching 3rd on stable debut for John Mackie on the back of a 9 month absence and I think he looks to be on favourable opening mark of 69 on his first foray into a handicap today. Picked up for €35,000 as a foal, this 3 year old is a full brother to Jim Bolger's excellent mare Banimpire who was a 5 times Group winner as a 3 year old and beaten a short head in the Irish Oaks and Hurry Home Poppa is certainly bred to be better than his initial rating. Hurry Home Poppa started off his career with Tom Dascombe last December with an ok debut run over 7f at Lingfield on the AW and his 2nd career start came at the same venue upped to a mile in a Novice event and although that was a very decent contest (front 3 rated 95+) he was still a little disappointing as he finished tailed off in last place. For one reason or another, owner David Ward decided a change of scenery was needed and he moved Hurry Home Poppa to Jamie Mackie's yard. Hurry Home Poppa made his 3 year old debut for Mackie about a month ago and it was undoubtedly his best start to date as he finished a very decent 3rd at Beverley upped to 10f. Under todays jockey Dale Swift, Hurry Home Poppa sat in mid division on the fence throughout the contest and about the 4f pole he got slightly outpaced and was about 7-8L off the eventual first 2 home who were prominent throughout. Under a drive from Swift, Hurry Home Poppa was given two stern smacks of the whip between the 3 and 2 poles before really starting and there was certainly a response forthcoming from this gelding as he seemed to really get the hang of things as he stayed on strongly under a hands ride to finish a never nearer 2.75L beaten 3rd. Dale Swift certainly didn't give him an excessively hard time and I think he'll have learnt a lot for the run and come on fitness wise as it was his first run for 262 days.

The winner My History looks a useful prospect and was very well backed (8/13) to score at the 2nd time of asking whilst the runner up Response is the model of consistency having finished in the money all 6 starts with an official rating of 75 and given he is a very solid yardstick it certainly makes Hurry Home Poppa's mark of 69 look workable judged on that run and I definitely feel he'll have come on both mentally and physically for the run. For this handicap debut, Hurry Home Poppa is upped to 12f for the first time which looks certain to suit both on breeding and his last run and he's well berthed in stall 4 which is important at Pontefract's sharp and testing track. In addition to being bred for this sort of trip, Hurry Home Poppa's pedigree certainly suggests he'll get better with age and his full sister Banimpire and half brother Dream On Buddy would certainly confirm that and I think he could have a good handicap career ahead of him. Although John Mackie is winnerless on the flat since May which is a bit of a concern, he's had a couple of winners over jumps in the past couple of weeks and I'm definitely he can translate that good form to the flat today. Dale Swift, who is 1-6 for the yard, retains his partnership with this gelding and this represents his only ride at a track he rides particularly well and where the trainer has had a couple of winners in the past. Looking at the make up of the race, there looks set to be a fair bit of pace which should definitely suit Hurry Home Poppa and hopefully he can grab a nice mid division sit on the rail from his good low draw. Clearly looking to have come on quite a bit now a 3 year old, I thought there was an awful lot to like about his first run for John Mackie and if stripping fitter for the run and improving for the step up in trip I think he's got an excellent chance of making a winning handicap debut off a mark of 69 on what will hopefully be the start of a successful handicapping career.

 

Exellent write up as usual roto shame i missed yesterdays mind you id picked a few that didnt place so being busy saved the pocket.
I will be using hurry home poppa in a RF on the strength of your vast knowledge i have looked at the race a few times now and cant for the life of me see past the fav first secretary so at 5s and 6s it could be a nice rf i will bac fs ew while the odds are there as he looks the strongest on form and if a place returns the stake i will be happy not to lose money . I hope im not shooting myself in the foot but most candidates in this race had big lines put straight through them.
Good luck all on what looks a poor day of racing.

 

Morning all

Wolverhampton 4.30 Walking Warrior 12/1 E/W

Blinkers on, N Callan jocked up and returns to the AW.

Good luck all

 

Morning, pinstickers. Hope everyone well. It was a year ago today that we witnessed one of the training performances of our age when Mr Henderson introduced Lieutenant Miller, to the level, and in a conditions race against 100 rated rivals the old boy triumphanted amid glorious acclaim. Don’t miss the Lieutenant in Saturday’s Ces by the way. I’m already looking forward to the congratulatory interview between the lovely Ems Spencer and Mr Henderson as both stride towards the old ‘winners enclosure’ at approximately 4 o’clock. Expect lots of incessant giggling and hair flicking from one of them!

Nothing of Lieutenant Miller class amongst the horses or Mr Henderson’s amongst the trainers today but BE SEEING YOU should oblige in the 2YO maiden at Royal Windsor (2.20). This old boy was very slowly away and as green as the grass he ran on at Newbury last month but still ran managed to finish a respectable 4th on that occasion. With that experience behind him and some fining tuning by old boy Charlton expect a much more polished performance today against a bunch of rivals who don’t look the greatest ever assembled. Furthermore, he will relish the extra furlong and the yard are in sound form as 3 out of their last 10 charges to run have won and Thistle Bird came close to bagging them a Group 1 yesterday. 9/4 a fair price.

Good luck, pilgrims.

 

I saw that Stick and it is an obvious worry, I had to take a view that either the trainer knows he is ok and otherwise would not be running him or that the trainer is going to give him a gentle run to regain his confidence, I came down on the former.

I took the 14's with Bet365 last night and they must have had quite a bit of money for it as they are now the lowest and showing the 8's that I thought he should be from the start, Betvictor are still as high as 11's however. I would be a lot more confident however if you fancied him with the form you have been in of late, well done and long may it last.

 

I fancy him enough to have had a small each way at 14's last night. He was placed in the race last year but I am concerned because of the fall last time. Very lucky not to be seriuosly injured.

 

Because I seem to like wasting my money I'm opposing both Uncle and Roto and am backing Darakti 12/1 in the 4:40 at Pontefract

 

Last Instalment should be back on the racecourse around Dec/Jan time. Stan James will give you 50/1 about him winning this terms CGC.

 

Cor blimey, over half the field taken out of Saturday’s Ces! Entries fall from 105 to 42. Lieutenant Miller guaranteed a run therefore.

14 left in the ‘Dewhurst’ of which 8, I say 8, are trained by Mr O’Brien!

 

16s to 20s are available on daraki mate its last run at track / distance was a little slow if i remember right and as roto mentioned this may be a good pace so it may leave daraki with too much to do but one has to win so good luck

 

Cracking card Barney...I was rather taken with Godolphin's Be Ready lto and the second gave the form the form an element of solidity yesterday.

No bet today again....very poor racing.

GL anyone having a go.

 

Cracking episode of "Are You Being Served?" on BBC2

 

Sad indeed Oddy...I remember having a quite a good sum on him when he won a h'cap hurdle at Catterick...great old boy.

 

Good shout bucks I didnt bet bu a return for you