Daily Thread - Sunday 4th August

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B

Brough Tiger

Well-Known Member
Jan 24, 2011
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Really fancy Moonlight Cloud over at Deauville tomorrow. Getting weight off the rest and has a touch of class about her. Can't see her getting beat.

Also think First Mohican will win his first group race over in France too
 
I'm with you Brough. This will be my only bet tomorrow, and i'll be having my maximum stake on it. Good luck to both of us!
To clarify, Moonlight cloud that is.
 
Definitely go along with First Mohican

Moonlight Cloud is one I never like to go against and were it 7f I would not hesitate. Over 6f I would just side with the fast improving Lethal Force. But this is an intriguing 6f+. I say + because RP has it at 6f110y whilst ATR and SL have it as 6f 101y . It's actually 1300m = 6fur 101.69yd (not 6.5f as some advertise). Does Lethal Force have any more improvement to come? Will he be feeling the effects of 2 hard races? Does he travel? (down the field in last visit to France but that was 7f in heavy going). Moonlight Cloud has won this race 2 years running so obviously loves the course and was impressive on reappearance this year. Very difficult but everything seems to favour Moonlight Cloud so she gets my narrow vote, for what that's worth.
 
Good morning all bad day for me yesterday a few 4ths and out of the places but thats often the case when you go for good odds,
I have been up since 6 deliberating on the chester 230 not a race I would normally try to pick apart and put back together but one horse stands out currently a 12s-14s with value stamped on it . The favourite ascription currently 4s or less does have a chance at this but 4s is to small in a race that could go anyway . This race has three strong front runners so under normal rules I would look at the likes of the mid division and hold up horses which however is jockey dependant to make it even harder!
Able master usually likes the front looks to weighted for todays race although a very good horse and in form
Lord of the dance weighted
Chosen charecter could run from the front or mid division looks slightly weighted
Ascription hold up or tracker (tracker I would asume today if the front runners are given to much it will stand no chance)
Gramercy weighted /unknown distance
Shebebi front runner weighted
Tellovi unproven
Ortack rock nicely weighted but mid division horse
Day of the eagle weighted
Green park weight plus distance questionable
One scoop or two is another that could place depending on how the race is run
The horse that got my attention had a mind blowing run three or four weeks ago from the front if I remember right (take note if you asked me who I backed yesterday I wouldn't be able to tell you ) . There is the burn out chance still but it wont change my mind as VERSES OF LOVE is well weighted for a hard front run race.
At the odds I will trust my instinct ew as usual this has all the chance of getting unclecracker doing the fat boy shuffle .
Back at your own risk these are my 1hr plus efforts at this race.
Good luck all
 
Been told that DALIANCE should win the last at Market Rasen today. They think its well treated and have the conditional on to take an extra few pounds off.
 
Am I the only one on Lethal Force today- granted its the 1st time i shall be backing him but he has showed his true class and turn off foot and surely will have to much for this field!!
 
The horse that gallop put up a few weeks back - Saddaqa, is racing again today in the 5.25 at Newbury. Was still incredibly green on her second run but looks to have a lot of ability. Hoping today is the day she gets off the mark
 
woolcombe-folly007 said:
Me :D I like the look of Intibaah- Impressed me greatly at Ascot earlier in the year when second to Ninjago stayed on well, hasnt been seen since but is definately up to the task in hand today and goes well fresh!
Click to expand...

Risky but at 11/2 could be worth an ew saver personally Cincinnati kit looks big at 25s ew dominating lately and the longer trip may bring out some improvement
 
hi people-- rain is forecast for the chester area all afternoon-- so that will make a huge difference-- uncle, that 2 30 is a very tricky race, i am going for The day of The Eagle, and at market rasen going to oppose your selection Stick, with alan king's Danehil Dante- first run in a handicap, stable's last two runners have won at 14/1 and 12/1 in handicaps--good luck all.....
 
I gave the last day of not-so-Glorious Goodwood a miss. Rather annoyingly I missed the first winner at Doncaster (Green Monkey at 4/1) because it was 9/4 in the morning betting, which was too short, but the Tyke dunces on Town Moor obviously did not fancy it.

One that will be worth watching for in the future is Godolphin’s Newmarket winner Urban Dance, now unbeaten in three starts and blessed with an impeccable pedigree.

Highlight of the Sunday racing is across the Channel at Deauville: the Prix Maurice de Gheest. British champion sprinter elect Lethal Force is chasing the big Group 1 pot over six-and-a-half furlongs on ground that will not be riding fast. The home defence is led by the horse that has won the race the last two years, Freddie Head’s Moonlight Cloud. Punters should take heed: if you fancy Moonlight Cloud take the price with the British bookies because on the PMU in Normandy she is likely to start short odds. Whoever does the betting forecast in the Racing Post has incorrectly surmised that Lethal Force will be favourite – the French do not back foreign raiders.

Nearer to home, in the six furlong sprint at Chester (3:05), I am interested by Cincinnati Kit, who I opposed last time over five. The step up to six is a bit of a concern on the turn at this track. If it gets beat out of sight today, you will know that I decided to risk it!

The Listed race at Newbury (3:50) appears to largely revolve around favourite Songbird, unbeaten in two starts but not seen out for nearly two months. She holds an entry in the Yorkshire Oaks so she would be expected to win this comfortably if she is going to keep an appointment at the Ebor meeting. Last time she collected a three-runner event at Yarmouth without turning a hair and the extra furlong will be no problem. I am, however, going to oppose her. Luca Cumani’s filly Kikonga easily collected a nine-runner Ascot handicap last time and I see no reason to believe that she is not up to Listed class if Lady Cecil’s filly disappoints.
 
Good day to you all!

Uncle, thanks for your lengthy comments above, will take a good look at those you mention, as I need a lot of help on the Flat especially! Thanks too for the paragraphing; usually I require oxygen assistance to complete reading your posts! <laugh> Just kidding!
 
I put this up yesterday only for the selection to be a non runner. The outcome of the race was that Art Official, the horse Intermath had already beaten at levels on his first run won the race easily, suggesting that a first three finish would have been ever so likely at least.

Intermath runs today instead now at Chester and is still a reasonably priced 8-1, I do fear the Hagges horse but after the franking of the form on top of everything written yesterday I have to go back in again today.

Chester
3.40 Intermath 8-1


Goodwood
5.00 Intermath 25-1 EW
This horse represents huge each way value in my opinion. He ran well to win on his first start only to unseat his rider on his second when a well fancied 2nd fav for a decent conditions race, a race won by Miracle of Medina who won a listed race next time out by 3 1/2 lengths, beating the odds on Big Thunder who turned around the form in the Richmond (G2) on Thursday. Intermath's third run was in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket, a race in which he finished down the field but only beaten 8 lengths By Anjaal, Figure of Speech and Sir John Hawkins. This form has to say he has every chance back down in to handicap company.

I feel the bookies have got this horse's price all wrong as they have Art Official at 6-1 second favourite, yet Intermath has already beaten this horse off of level weights on his first run when art official had the benefit of a previous run, plus he now gets 3lb from Art Official. Another big pointer is that David Evans is a shrewd man and he does not waste ammunition, for him to have put this horse into a group 2 on his third run potentially messing up a handicap mark tells you he sees this horse to have a future outside of handicaps. Now we have to be sensible and take into account that this is a decent handicap with unexposed horses and so we cannot say it's a certainty, at 25-1 however I have to say it looks like the value EW bet of the week in my book.
 
uncle cracker said:
Good morning all bad day for me yesterday a few 4ths and out of the places but thats often the case when you go for good odds,
I have been up since 6 deliberating on the chester 230 not a race I would normally try to pick apart and put back together but one horse stands out currently a 12s-14s with value stamped on it . The favourite ascription currently 4s or less does have a chance at this but 4s is to small in a race that could go anyway . This race has three strong front runners so under normal rules I would look at the likes of the mid division and hold up horses which however is jockey dependant to make it even harder!
Able master usually likes the front looks to weighted for todays race although a very good horse and in form
Lord of the dance weighted
Chosen charecter could run from the front or mid division looks slightly weighted
Ascription hold up or tracker (tracker I would asume today if the front runners are given to much it will stand no chance)
Gramercy weighted /unknown distance
Shebebi front runner weighted
Tellovi unproven
Ortack rock nicely weighted but mid division horse
Day of the eagle weighted
Green park weight plus distance questionable
One scoop or two is another that could place depending on how the race is run
The horse that got my attention had a mind blowing run three or four weeks ago from the front if I remember right (take note if you asked me who I backed yesterday I wouldn't be able to tell you ) . There is the burn out chance still but it wont change my mind as VERSES OF LOVE is well weighted for a hard front run race.
At the odds I will trust my instinct ew as usual this has all the chance of getting unclecracker doing the fat boy shuffle .
Back at your own risk these are my 1hr plus efforts at this race.
Good luck all
Click to expand...

I'm on Able Master 8/1 in this backed it a few times and going to stick with it
 
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