Saturday Racing Thread 3rd August

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Bostonbob

Bostonbob

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Nov 6, 2012
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The Nassau is the highlight at Goodwood and i'm looking forward to it.

At first glance Sky Lantern looks like she just has to turn up to win even though there's plenty of quality in the field. I don't see why Just The Judge would have a reason to turn the Newmarket or Ascot form around even with an extra 2 furlongs to run.

We all got excited by Hot Snap after her Nell Gwyn win and if she returns to that form she could challenge Sky Lantern but i'd be put off by her lack of a recent run following reported problems and the relative levels of experience.

Integral is the most interesting non classic running filly in the race for Stoute who seems to target the race. 11/2 though about a horse that is facing really good horses for the first time seems a little stingy doesn't it? She won the Sandown race well but there was nothing of any note in that contest so she really does have a lot to prove albeit she's highly likely to enjoy the trip.

Of the 4 year olds and older I am not interested in Sajjhaa. Form from Meydan, for me, isn't anything to write home about and big figures can get generated from relatively poor runs so, even at 12/1, i'm looking elsewhere.

The one i think is interesting given her price and proven form over the trip is the Roger Varian trained Ambivalent. 16/1 each way for a horse that won the Pretty Polly a month ago from an Oaks winner seems a little generous. It seems fairly evident that for her to win the 3 year olds will have to fail to stay the extra distance but at those prices there's a little margin for error so i'll take a small bet on her each way.

Have at it chaps...



See dedicated thread for the Stewards Cup
 
Hot Snap 15/2 and Integral 11/2 for me Bob. 2 points on each. Sky Lantern should stay 10f but this is a stiff ask on her first attempt at it, so 2/1 looks too skinny for me. Interesting ew selection; can't see that getting in the first 3.
 
It's only for my minimum stake each way Ron. Agree it's not a likely winner but it's the only group one winner over 10 in that field I think so 16/1 was too big and it's an interesting little angle into an otherwise tough decision on whether to lump the favourite or not.
 
Good luck with that Bob. Interesting it's the only G1 winner over 10f; didn't realise that. As you probably know my mine is not real money.
 
What do people think of the bottom John Gosden horse in the Nassau?? Tried over a trip of 1m 4f that seemed to stretch stamina too much but time before he won nicely over 1 mile 2f. I dont know much about the horse but it doesnt look a no hoper to me and Gosden won the race last year...
 
Just The Judge has been crying out for 1m2f, whereas Sky Lantern has looked every inch a miler, so there is some hope of a turnaround in form. 8/1 is way too big for the Hills filly.

Sky Lantern will probably win though. So I've backed them both.
 
Its a race for three year olds Bob. MIDDAY ruined the trends but she was exceptional. Its between the front four in the market and all have question marks. Sky Lantern's is will she get the trip?
Just The Judge and Hot Snap will be my pair in the QIPCO comp but I wont be betting on the race.
 
olivier peslier coming over for one ride in the Nassau - Beatrice Aurore for Ed Dunlop...long way to come for a 25/1 shot...a small each way play for me..won over C&D and decent 2nd over 1m2f last year.

I also see lady cecil could have a good day across the UK tomorrow...short priced favourites at each course.
 
Goodwood
5.00 Intermath 25-1 EW
This horse represents huge each way value in my opinion. He ran well to win on his first start only to unseat his rider on his second when a well fancied 2nd fav for a decent conditions race, a race won by Miracle of Medina who won a listed race next time out by 3 1/2 lengths, beating the odds on Big Thunder who turned around the form in the Richmond (G2) on Thursday. Intermath's third run was in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket, a race in which he finished down the field but only beaten 8 lengths By Anjaal, Figure of Speech and Sir John Hawkins. This form has to say he has every chance back down in to handicap company.

I feel the bookies have got this horse's price all wrong as they have Art Official at 6-1 second favourite, yet Intermath has already beaten this horse off of level weights on his first run when art official had the benefit of a previous run, plus he now gets 3lb from Art Official. Another big pointer is that David Evans is a shrewd man and he does not waste ammunition, for him to have put this horse into a group 2 on his third run potentially messing up a handicap mark tells you he sees this horse to have a future outside of handicaps. Now we have to be sensible and take into account that this is a decent handicap with unexposed horses and so we cannot say it's a certainty, at 25-1 however I have to say it looks like the value EW bet of the week in my book.
 
Bluesky9 said:
Goodwood
5.00 Intermath 25-1 EW
This horse represents huge each way value in my opinion. He ran well to win on his first start only to unseat his rider on his second when a well fancied 2nd fav for a decent conditions race, a race won by Miracle of Medina who won a listed race next time out by 3 1/2 lengths, beating the odds on Big Thunder who turned around the form in the Richmond (G2) on Thursday. Intermath's third run was in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket, a race in which he finished down the field but only beaten 8 lengths By Anjaal, Figure of Speech and Sir John Hawkins. This form has to say he has every chance back down in to handicap company.

I feel the bookies have got this horse's price all wrong as they have Art Official at 6-1 second favourite, yet Intermath has already beaten this horse off of level weights on his first run when art official had the benefit of a previous run, plus he now gets 3lb from Art Official. Another big pointer is that David Evans is a shrewd man and he does not waste ammunition, for him to have put this horse into a group 2 on his third run potentially messing up a handicap mark tells you he sees this horse to have a future outside of handicaps. Now we have to be sensible and take into account that this is a decent handicap with unexposed horses and so we cannot say it's a certainty, at 25-1 however I have to say it looks like the value EW bet of the week in my book.
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Sounds pretty convincing Blue. Good luck.
 
Sky Lantern is by Red Clubs and the dam side doesn't offer much hope either, I have to take her on at 7/4 even though its a sharp 10f. Integral looks smart but the form of that Sandown race isnt worth much and I dont think she should be second fav on that. Not convinced the track will suit Just The Judge but the trip is no problem and she will run a big race. Hot Snap is crying out for a trip and I would have fancied her if she had a better preparation. Taking a chance on Just Pretending 14/1 e/w, probably an unlikely winner but I thought the Irish Oaks was quite strong and she always runs her race. She is second highest rated in the field after that Oaks run and might even improve again, you never know with those in form Obrien 3yo fillies. Hot Snap could romp it, but she could also need it and im more confident about Just Pretending making the 3.
 
" The Art of Racing " e/w in the last at goodwood tomorrow, 14/1. Should win but nailed on for a place, Enjoy lads <ok> 1 loser, 2 20/1 2nds, 33/1 winner 13/2 winner out of the 5 info info bets, so here's hoping we make it another profitable one and 5/6
 
Had a good word for Lancelot du lac in the 2.20 Newmarket. I don't normally receive news such as this so thought I would pass it on. I notice someone else mentioned him on yesterday's daily thread. My info could well be useless tho so I wouldn't put your faith in me like you would do stick et al <laugh>
 
Unfortunately those of us stuck in the northern wasteland that is called Yorkshire found that our laptop wi-fi was not working at all yesterday during office hours (and only worked for ten minutes on Thursday), so I was not able to post my notes on Goodwood. Quoting part of them, I was right to bypass the opener:

Aiken and Masterstroke (holds Arc entry, remote third last year) both make their seasonal debut, so this looks one just to watch as it may dry up too much for Aiken and Godolphin&#8217;s imports from Andre Fabre have not been a great success in Newmarket and Masterstroke may be a mudlark too.
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What I would have said about the Thoroughbred Stakes:

The second appears to be an excellent opportunity for Richard Hughes to cement his lead in the Top Jockey race on his father-in-law&#8217;s Montiridge, although I will only be watching now the price has gone. He will be hoping that he has picked the right one because Ryan Moore is on the yard&#8217;s other runner.
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The day&#8217;s bet was:

The best horse in the King George sprint is Tickled Pink but this is a bit different to the straight five at Sandown. As she has no course form, I will be hoping she inherited some as I read in the Racing Post that her dam won this in 2000! I will be really annoyed if Moviesta upsets her as I have backed it the last twice when it has been touched off in valuable handicaps.
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How annoying &#8211; balloted out of the Stewards&#8217; Cup and wins over shorter when I opposed it. Tickled Pink gambled down but squeezed out when beaten. A good price about a loser still pays nothing.

It became a really annoying day when Annecdote &#8211; well beaten in a handicap at Ascot a week ago carrying my money &#8211; won the Oak Tree Stakes at 4:50.

I have tipped three winners at Goodwood so far this week, not had a penny on any of them and backed four losers, so this ought to be a no bet day!

No point bothering with events at Old Trafford. The numpties have produced a flat batting wicket that even the Aussies can score five hundred on so they will avoid the whitewash with a draw and England will retain the Ashes. The Lancashire groundsman should be shot for producing a no result wicket &#8211; the punters have wasted their money on tickets to a non event. In twenty-eight Ashes Tests completed to date at Old Trafford, there have been fourteen draws. They should never have a game there again; it is pointless. If Man United versus Man City was 0-0 fifty per cent of the time, nobody would watch.

Most of today&#8217;s Goodwood card is of no interest because it is large field handicaps giving the punter next to no chance. The Nassau Stakes should be between the first two fillies from the Guineas on form. Just The Judge and Sky Lantern should both stay on pedigree, although a concern is that the race may not be run to suit either and overnight rain is bad news; so I will just be watching. If there is an &#8220;upset&#8221; it will either be the potential of unbeaten Integral (Sandown form dodgy; let down by several runners this week) or the dropping-back-in-trip Winsili (did not stay Ascot mile and a half when favourite last time); however, both have ten pounds to find with the big two. It will be fascinating to see how Hot Snap goes, having not been seen since her Guineas flop and the passing of Sir Henry.
 
ChelseaCOE2012 said:
" The Art of Racing " e/w in the last at goodwood tomorrow, 14/1. Should win but nailed on for a place, Enjoy lads <ok> 1 loser, 2 20/1 2nds, 33/1 winner 13/2 winner out of the 5 info info bets, so here's hoping we make it another profitable one and 5/6
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You have put some decent stuff on here since you started tipping but maybe you could flag up which ones are "info" from now on as your record overall sure isn't 5/6. Good job you get good info though huh!
Best of luck with this one, its a nice type!
 
I fancy the outsider of the field Benbane Head @ 22s Newton Abbot 4.30. Handicapped to be competitive, his form on good to firm ground is 3 wins and a creditable 4th from 4 attempts. The only slight concern is the threat of showers softening the ground later on. Each way bet for me. At Goodwood I reckon The consistent Prodigality @ 25s will give me a run for my money. Good luck all.
 
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