6.50 Sandown
Muhdiq 16/1
Although the draw in stall 14 could have been kinder, Mike Murphy's unexposed 4 year old Muhdiq ran a much better race than his finishing position of 11th suggests on his seasonal reappearance and I think the handicapper dropping him 2lb for his latest run to a mark of 78, which he was successful off just two starts ago, is a huge overreaction. Average in 3 starts for Brian Meehan in Maiden's as a 2 year old, Muhdiq has been progressive since switched to handicaps for his new trainer and got off the mark at the 3rd time of asking in handicaps (6th career start) when winning by nose (more comfortable than the margin suggests). Off a mark of 75 over 5f at Lingfield on the AW last October, Muhdiq came from last to first under Pat Dobbs who looked pretty confident in winning the head bobber and that race has worked out very strongly. It is also very interesting that the 3rd that day Rebecca Romero is only 1lb better off today and given that she is the clear 5/1 2nd favourite I think the price difference between the pair doesn't make sense. Raised 3lb to a mark of 78, Muhdiq scored for the 2nd consecutive time at Lingfield upped to 6f when scoring by a head under Neil Callan (again value for more than the winning distance) and although that race isn't overly good form it certainly showed he was going the right way. He was then put away for the winter and made a much better reappearance than his 11th place finish suggests as he was raced on the stands side at Ascot last month which was hugely disadvantaged by the draw and he was actually 2nd home in his group. Moreover, Dobbs crossed Muhdiq over from the far side group to the stand side mid race which surely cost him a couple of lengths and I think the handicapper has been very kind to drop him 2lb for that run back to his last winning mark. Additionally, he shaped if he'd improve for the run and I think he'll be spot on for a big run in this. Although the draw from stall 14 isn't ideal, Dobbs may drop him out for a late run which should definitely suit as there seems an abundance of pace in the race. Although probably better over 6f, Sandown's stiff 5f coupled with a strong pace should definitely be in Muhdiq's favour and he showed he's got the pace for 5f when winning at Lingfield over the trip 3 starts ago. With conditions in his favour, Muhdiq is very unexposed with only 8 starts to date and I certainly don't think we've seen the best of this 4 year old yet and I think 16/1 is a great each way price and far bigger than I thought he'd be. In what looks a very open contest, I'm having a saver on Solemn 16/1 who won this race eased down by 6L last year off a 4lb higher mark and with Matthew Lawson taking a further 5lb off his back and this being his lowest mark in over 3 years it wouldn't surprise me if a big run was on the cards.
Muhdiq 16/1
Although the draw in stall 14 could have been kinder, Mike Murphy's unexposed 4 year old Muhdiq ran a much better race than his finishing position of 11th suggests on his seasonal reappearance and I think the handicapper dropping him 2lb for his latest run to a mark of 78, which he was successful off just two starts ago, is a huge overreaction. Average in 3 starts for Brian Meehan in Maiden's as a 2 year old, Muhdiq has been progressive since switched to handicaps for his new trainer and got off the mark at the 3rd time of asking in handicaps (6th career start) when winning by nose (more comfortable than the margin suggests). Off a mark of 75 over 5f at Lingfield on the AW last October, Muhdiq came from last to first under Pat Dobbs who looked pretty confident in winning the head bobber and that race has worked out very strongly. It is also very interesting that the 3rd that day Rebecca Romero is only 1lb better off today and given that she is the clear 5/1 2nd favourite I think the price difference between the pair doesn't make sense. Raised 3lb to a mark of 78, Muhdiq scored for the 2nd consecutive time at Lingfield upped to 6f when scoring by a head under Neil Callan (again value for more than the winning distance) and although that race isn't overly good form it certainly showed he was going the right way. He was then put away for the winter and made a much better reappearance than his 11th place finish suggests as he was raced on the stands side at Ascot last month which was hugely disadvantaged by the draw and he was actually 2nd home in his group. Moreover, Dobbs crossed Muhdiq over from the far side group to the stand side mid race which surely cost him a couple of lengths and I think the handicapper has been very kind to drop him 2lb for that run back to his last winning mark. Additionally, he shaped if he'd improve for the run and I think he'll be spot on for a big run in this. Although the draw from stall 14 isn't ideal, Dobbs may drop him out for a late run which should definitely suit as there seems an abundance of pace in the race. Although probably better over 6f, Sandown's stiff 5f coupled with a strong pace should definitely be in Muhdiq's favour and he showed he's got the pace for 5f when winning at Lingfield over the trip 3 starts ago. With conditions in his favour, Muhdiq is very unexposed with only 8 starts to date and I certainly don't think we've seen the best of this 4 year old yet and I think 16/1 is a great each way price and far bigger than I thought he'd be. In what looks a very open contest, I'm having a saver on Solemn 16/1 who won this race eased down by 6L last year off a 4lb higher mark and with Matthew Lawson taking a further 5lb off his back and this being his lowest mark in over 3 years it wouldn't surprise me if a big run was on the cards.
