1.45 Chester
Blithe Spirit 9/1
After this filly won on her 2nd outing, trainer Eric Alston said it was at least 5 years since his last juvenile winner and I certainly feel that shows that this is a well above average horse. After an educational introduction at Wolverhampton at the start of April, Blithe Spirit clearly came on a lot for that experience when making all to win in good style at Ripon a couple of weeks later. From a high enough draw in stall 7, Blithe Spirit absolutely pinged out of the gates and showed some excellent early speed to move across to the near side rail and grab the overall lead. From there, she never saw a rival and she powered to a convincing 2.5L success. She didn't look anywhere near the finished product that day and seemed quite raw but her natural ability saw her win and I think she'll have improved greatly for that run. The 4th home has come out and won since to solidify the form and it was an effort that I thought was full of promise. This looks a very competitive contest but Eric Alston always targets his runners at the Chester Festival which he always does very well at and although he certainly isn't renowned with his 2 year olds I think its very interesting that he sends this filly here. Perhaps even more telling is that this filly's Dam Damalis, who was trained by Alston, absolutely loved Chester where she won 5 times including 4 times at this meeting. Blithe Spirit's breeding suggests that she could excel at this very sharp track which could be crucial on this unique course. Although she could have been drawn a lot better than stall 9, if she pings the start like she did at Ripon then I am confident enough she has enough pace to get to the front. If she can get a lead without using too much energy early on, I think she could take quite a bit of pegging back and if she can last home then I think she can definitely land this contest at a nice price.
2.25 Southwell
Amenable 8/1
It would not surprise me in the slightest if there was a flood of money around for this one tomorrow and this could very much be another plot from trainer Violet Jordan. Having joined current connections from David Nicholls back in December, Amenable has had 9 starts where he has been very poor in a mixture of Claimers, a Seller and handicaps but resultantly this 6 year old's mark has plummeted from a mark of 77 to a career low mark of 52 and he is ridiculously well handicapped on old form. You don't have to go an awful long way back for Amenable's last win which came at Hamilton off a mark of 78 last August for his former trainer but his first start on the Fibresand surface at Southwell is something I've been waiting to see happen as he clearly goes very well here. From 3 starts at the track, all over this C+D, Amenable has registered 2 wins including off a mark of 77 back in 2010 and he clearly goes extremely well here and this could be a right old plot. Although form figures are not at all desirable, the yard landed a massive punt with Brown Pete back in December who had a similar profile and Amenable has had 49 days since his last run which will hopefully have seen connections getting him spot on for this. Owned by Steve Arnold's rakebackmypoker.com (same ownership as Brown Pete), if the money is down then I'd be extremely confident of collecting. This 0-55 handicap is about as low a grade event as your likely to find at Southwell and I'd be pretty surprised if Amenable isn't trying. There is a negative though as Cathy Gannon takes the ride and although I'm a big fan of hers her 0-17 record for the stable is definitely disconcerting. Moreover, job jockey for Brown Pete William Carson is at the track for the first two races but doesn't stick around for this and I'd be supremely confident if he was on board. However, Carson hasn't ridden for Jordan since March and perhaps they've had a falling out? Who knows, but Cathy is also on the favourite for Jordan in the opener and I'm more than confident of her ability in the saddle. From a decent draw in stall 4, I'd expect Amenable to bounce out and try to make all and if he does so then I'd be very confident. If this is the plot it looks to be as opposed to the horse regressing (which I very much doubt), Amenable is handicapped to piss all over the rest of this field in what looks an extremely average contest on a surface where he goes really well. If the handbrake is off and money is down, I think there is an incredibly strong chance that you'll be collecting from the bookies.
3.15 Chester
Foxy Music 16/1
Stall 10 is far from ideal for this front running gelding but he has clearly been aimed specifically at this race having finished runner up in this contest off a 9lb higher last year and I strongly believe that an absolutely huge run is on the cards. Now off a mark of 81, Foxy Music is on his lowest mark for a few years and this 9 year old makes his seasonal reappearance at a track where he goes very well. Looking at last years contest, Foxy Music broke extremely well from stall 7 to get to front with not too much trouble as he went customarily blitzed from the front. Despite hanging right throughout the contest, Foxy Music led the field until deep inside the final furlong before being headed by Confessional as he went down by 0.75L. It was an excellent effort off a mark of 90 for this double C+D winner and if replicating that effort then I think he'll come out victorious. He ran a couple of excellent races in defeat later last season when going down by 2L off a mark of 93 and just over a length off a mark of 91 last Summer before his form tailed off which saw him drop to a really nice mark of 81. Although his route to this race last year was different (had two runs prior), he goes extremely well fresh and Eric Alston should have him spot on for this after last years narrow defeat and its a race that the trainer has had some very good success with having 2 winners in the past 10 renewals. Looking at the contest, the only other horse in the field that looks an out and out front runner is Silvanus (who also has a bad draw) and that could be hugely beneficial to Foxy Music. Although it will be tough to get to the front from his wide birth, he has won from stall 10 at the course before and he certainly has the early speed to get across to the rail in front. David Probert looks an eye catching booking and is one of the best jockeys who can make a weight as low as 8-2 and Foxy Music has been very lucky to have creeped in here as bottom weight. Eric Alston has his horses in good order at the moment and I'm 100% sure that Foxy Music will be absolutely spot on for this contest. Clearly a well handicapped horse, if Foxy Music can get to the front early without too much hassle and Probert can set the right fractions then I think this enthusiastic 9 year old could take quite a bit of pegging back and I feel he has a great chance of going one better than he did last year. 16/1 is an absolutely huge price in my eyes (which could easily get bigger tomorrow) and if all goes to plan then I'm hoping Foxy Music can earn a well deserved victory in this race.
8.30 Newcastle
Ersaal 6/1
Keeping this very short but I think an opening handicap mark of 70 could be very lenient for Roger Varian's handicap debutant and I think it looks very telling that this 3 year has stayed in training and remained a Colt for this Hamdan Al Maktoum owned horse. The first foal of the Listed place Makaaseb, this son of Dubawi showed some smart form in 3 pretty decent Maidens which have thrown up a lot of winners and I definitely feel a mark of 70 could prove very workable. A horse who had a lot of decent entries at the end of last season which he didn't fulfil, Ersaal was clearly a horse that was well thought of before making his racecourse debut and although he probably didn't live up to those expectations as a 2 year old he must have grown quite a bit over the winter to be kept in training as a 3 year old from his powerful connections and they must surely feel there are races to be won with him. The excellent Andrea Atzeni takes the ride for the bang in form Varian yard and this represents a rare visit to Newcastle for the trainer who is 2-5 at the track. Ersaal makes the 500 mile round trip with promising stablemate Huffoof and Andrea Atzeni is also coming a fair distance from Southwell to ride these two. I think Ersaal could prove very popular amongst punters tomorrow and he could easily start half his current price and I'm pretty confident that this 3 year old could take quite a bit of beating on his handicap debut.
