Saturday 13th Daily Thread

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King Shergar

King Shergar

Well-Known Member
May 9, 2011
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Shergars Shoo in tommorow is HAAR 5.20 Stratford @ 6/1 BPG! He hasn't won over fences yet, but I feel tommorow will be his day. He ran a nice race last time out at Huntingdon off a mark of 105, finishing 3rd. 4 lengths behind the winner Five Rivers, who has gone on to win again since off a 4 pound higher mark. The 2nd placed horse Croco Mister, who beat him 3 lengths has gone on to finish 2nd again since, off a 3 pound higher mark. Haar is still on 105 so looks to be well handicapped here. Croco Mister re opposes again, but Haar is 3 pounds better off with him, plus he has the benefit of a 5 week break, were as Croco Mister had a tough race 12 days ago. Haar likes it round Stratford having run his best races over fences there, finishing runner up twice off much higher marks of 120 and 124. He's pretty versatile when it comes to ground having won on the soft, and finished runner up on good to firm, so good to soft ground should be fine, and 20 furlongs looks to be his optimum trip. Andy Turrel had a winner yesterday, which is another positive. So everything looks in place for a big run from him tommorow :biggrin:
 
3:15. Lilly Angel 4/1. Step down in class should help her back to winning ways after a 4 timer earlier this year.

Also backing Jack Dexter in the 3:30 donny.
 
SMP said:
3:15. Lilly Angel 4/1. Step down in class should help her back to winning ways after a 4 timer earlier this year.

Also backing Jack Dexter in the 3:30 donny.
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I love Lily's Angel I may look at the race in more depth to decide if i will back her yet though. Goodluck nonetheless.
 
Having a lazy one tonight so not bothering with extensive write ups.

ROTO said:
1.20 Doncaster

Colonel Mak 10/1

I'd have preferred if he had come here with a run under his belt but I think David Barron's 6 year old has a tremendous chance of landing this event for the 2nd year running. Colonel Mak comes here on the back of a 140 day absence and he was out of form at the end of last season but he comes here looking a well handicapped horse off a mark of 95 which is 3lb below the mark he was successful in this last year. He took a very different path before last years renewal as he was fit from the all weather but he ran out a very impressive winner that day off a mark of 98. Sitting just in behind the pace that day, tomorrow's pilot Luke McNiff took up the running with about 1.5f left to go and nothing in behind could muster a challenge as he ran out a ready winner. He proved that effort was no fluke when running an absolute belter on his next start off a 6lb higher mark of 104 when finishing under top weight of 9-10 when 3rd in a very competitive handicap at Newmarket last May won by subsequent Group 2 winning Maarek. Additionally, the runner up Shropshire (who reopposses tomorrow off 25lb worse terms if taking claims into account), won subsequently off a 4lb higher mark and he was also not beaten all that far off a 10lb higher mark in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood and if reproducing that effort tomorrow then surely he will take the world of beating. Although he won a weak enough Conditions Race in July, Colonel Mak struggled to make an impact for the rest of last season but resultantly has fallen to a lovely mark of 95 which I think he has a superb chance of winning off. Although his record fresh is a little bit of an unknown, he ran a very eye catching 4L beaten 10th in this race in 2011 on seasonal reappearance when running on under tender handling late on and I certainly think the Barron yard have purposely aimed him at landing this race for the 2nd year running. Luke McNiff, who was on board when winning last years renewal, takes the ride and a very handy 5lb off and I think this 6 year old has a superb chance if fully wound up for this. Clearly well handicapped off a mark of 95 when looking at some of his efforts last year, I'm very confident of a very big showing from Colonel Mak and hopefully he can repeat history and land this for the 2nd year running. Current favourite King Of Jazz also looks a well handicapped horse and I've done the RFC and had a saver.
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3.30 Doncaster Colonel Mak 25/1 was disappointing LTO but he looked as if he was in need of the run and I'm willing to give him one more chance. Dropped a further 1lb to a mark of 94, this C+D is now on his lowest mark since 2011 and is clearly well handicapped on last seasons form being 4lb below the mark he was an impressive winner at Donny and 10lb below a fantastic effort behind subsequent Grade 2 winning Maarek. Andrew Mullen takes over in the saddle tomorrow and although he's going to have to come on an awful lot for his reappearance if he does he could run a huge race.

4.15 Stratford

Iolith 5/1

I'm clearly worried about the flood of cash for Emma Lavelle's Claret Cloak but I was extremely impressed with Iolith's first run for 714 days LTO and entitled to strip a whole lot fitter for that run I think he's got a very good chance of landing this. After winning a couple of Novice Hurdles in late 2010, Iolith ran a blinder off a mark of 132 at Taunton in testing conditions in February 2011 when beaten a little over 2L before being stepped into the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at the Aintree Festival on what was his last start before his huge absence. Pulled up in that race (could easily have been where he picked up his injury) it says an awful lot that they persevered to keep him in training and this now 8 year old ran a blinder on his first start back LTO. Off his current mark of 123 in a better race than this, Iolith ran an absolute blinder in heavy ground at Newbury and was 2nd jumping the last before fitness caught up to him and he faded to finish a 8.75L 4th late on. The form of that race looks strong with the first two home Shotofvodka and Changing The Guard running blinders in the same race at the Aintree Festival when finishing 7th & 4th off 9lb & 4lb higher marks respectively. It was a truly terrific effort on his start in nearly 2 years and I expect him to strip an awful lot fitter for it. Clearly holding his ability of old, he looks well handicapped off a mark of 123 on old form and he should also appreciate the better ground in this easier race. Trainer Alan King has his horses in absolutely superb form at the moment and if not feeling the effects from his latest run 22 days ago I expect a very bold performance which should hopefully reward patient connections with a well deserved win.

4.30 Uttoxeter

Gormanstown Cuckoo 6/1

Michael Blake's charge ran a much better race LTO with his tongue tie reapplied and off the same mark of 119 in better ground conditions and eased slightly in grade I think he's going to go very close to winning this. Formerly with Colm Murphy, Gormanstown Cuckoo's last win came on his final start for the Irish trainer when absolutely bolting in off this mark in October 2011 in a hot Aintree handicap in a race that has worked out really well. Raised to a mark of 132 for that run, he had fallen back down to his last winning mark when the reapplication of the tongue tie (first time this year) saw him put in a much improved effort on heavy ground at Ffos Las last month. After making some very smooth progress, Gormanstown Cuckoo was travelling like the winner heading into the home straight but just couldn't quicken in the very testing conditions as he came home to be beaten a tired 8L. Undoubtedly a good ground horse, I think he's going to take a lot of beating with the tongue tie retained and with the excellent Michael Nolan taking off a very valuable 5lb I'm confident of an elusive victory for this 9 year old.
 
Commerce 3 40 Stratford-- Dai Burchell back at his old hunting ground, selling races at stratford, had a spin at wolves the other day, reckon they will be giving this a proper go, will be a decent price-so a good e/w bet.Last year iirc ,he took two here, a 40/1 second by a nose, and a 33/1 winner--- would have been some double--sure they must have been happy enough...
 
Two for me at Kempton and both are Hannon/Hughes combinations

2.05 Shamaal Nibras @ 5/1
3.50 Mister Music @13/2

Similar horses in many ways, both have good form in the book, and have nice draws but also form that didn't last through the season last year. The former ran well on seasonal reappearance and I thought was better than the bare result, whilst the latter has had the cruelest cut and should improve for that this season. I expect Hughes to have both close to the pace and aim to kick down the straight.
 
rudebwoy said:
Commerce 3 40 Stratford-- Dai Burchell back at his old hunting ground, selling races at stratford, had a spin at wolves the other day, reckon they will be giving this a proper go, will be a decent price-so a good e/w bet.Last year iirc ,he took two here, a 40/1 second by a nose, and a 33/1 winner--- would have been some double--sure they must have been happy enough...
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Good spot Rude, will have a look and might stick him in a Yankee.

On another note, anybody else read that Blackstairmountain (25/1) won the Nakayama Grand Jump for the Mullins/Walsh combo this morning? Earned connections £465,162 for that little trip to the land of the rising Sun!!
 
16:15 Stratford - Dreambrook Lady

(Seconditis problem continues after yesterday's Bravo Bravo (good run, but an excellent effort by the top-weight winner), but I did beat ROTO for a change, that's a miracle in itself! Today's selection ticks quite a few boxes and should acquit herself well in this heat).

Good luck to all having a wager today! <ok>
 
Not the most exciting of racing today but i like rhe look of King of Jazz at 12/1 (gp) each way. 3.30pm Doncaster. Just backed it. Has run in some top races and is at its lowest rating and weight for ages.. Record at Donny reads 1st.. 3rd and 3rd and good claimer on board! Finished 3rd at Donny last time from an unsuitable draw. Get on is my advice. Jack Dexter could have the quality to beat this lot but im banking on top weight scuppering his chances..
 
Rather keen on one today, anything im touching at the minute is either breaking down or getting nailed on the line, but I think this could be a group horse in a handicap.

Doncaster 3.30 Duke Of Firenze 9/1

Surprised at the odds on offer about this son of Nannina given his profile and connections, im not talking group 1, but Group 3 horse maybe. Hes only had 7 runs and its hard for the sprinters at 3, hes a very progressive animal and he could be one to take a big step forward this season and work his way out of handicap company sharpish.

Kempton
1.35 Fig Roll 15/8
2.40 Code Of Honor 3/1
3.15 Stirring Ballad 4/1
5.00 Mubaraza 10/3
 
Confident in a race like that RV? Usually a sign to get out while you can.

Fallon catches the eye.

Heard good things about this Hannon filly in the first at Kempton.
 
No need for me to get out Master. I bet what I can afford to lose and no more :) I would be more confident in that race than backing that Stoute animal you have put up even if I do fancy him myself.
 
I know its a 20 runner handicap, but there is a lot of deadwood in the race and the price is right.

Maybe its just me, anytime I fancy one strongly in a 2yo maiden they tend to get beat.
 
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