My voucher for Chatterbox in the Neptune looks to at least be getting me a run for my money. I think the step up in trip will suit him and I can definitely lay off some of my bet off to guarantee at least money back! First bit of good news
HELTENHAM PREVIEW EVENING at KNARESBOROUGH, CRICKET CLUB, YORKSHIRE The sixth renewal of this event was put together by the M.C. for the evening James Bridson with a panel comprising Channel 4 Racing’s Jim McGrath (JM), Nick Robson (NR) lead tipster for Racing Plus, Paul Jones (PJ) author of the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide and Michael Shinners (MS) representing Skybet, sponsors of the evening. Supreme Novices’ Hurdle JM: Timeform have My Tent Or Yours 16lbs higher than an average Supreme winner. With a clear round he should win and he should be a shorter price than than the odds say his chance is. NR: In my job I have to look to take on short prices like My Tent Or Yours but, regardless, I am keen to take him on anyway. When something looks too good to be true, it generally is. I don’t like Jezki at all and feel Un Atout is more of a long term project. Dodging Bullets will run well but I will be disappointed if he wins. I like Pique Sous at a price who travelled best in last year’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper when third and 12/1 each-way without the favourite makes appeal. PJ: Obviously no surprise if the favourite bolts up but although I would prefer to have seen Dodging Bullets have a prep run I feel he has to run well on a combination of ratings, course form and connections and still feel there is a little juice in his price. As much as I like Un Atout as an individual, I think it’s all about the future with him and I still don’t why Jekzi could only finish eighth in the Bumper last year, maybe he prefers flatter courses? I just wonder if Melodic Rendezvous has the brilliance. MS: We are now betting each-way first four places. The bookmakers are likely to want to get My Tent Or Yours on Tuesday morning so if you want to back him I would wait until then where you could get 9/4. I think he will be backed on course afterwards. Dodging Bullets looks the best each-way alternative. Arkle Trophy JM: If the ground is no worse than Good-to-Soft, I will back Overturn who is too big a price if this is a match. He jumped great at Sandown though not so good at Doncaster until the home straight. NR: I don’t fancy Arvika Ligeonneire to finish within a fence of the big two as he wants testing ground and a right handed course plus a longer trip. I’d love to see Overturn win but Simonsig does look very impressive. PJ: It’s all about tactics. As a real fast good gallop would suit Simonsig I just wonder if they might slow it up in front on Overturn at some point and try a sudden injection in speed to get the favourite at it and if he can illicit one mistake out of him over the last three fences he will be hard to peg back. I think the difference in price between the pair is too big but, gun to the head, and it would be Simonsig. MS: I think the public will come for Overturn so I don’t see Simonsig starting shorter than 8/11, maybe even 4/5. There was a run on Captain Conan with us at lunchtime today but I suspect it is was NR No bet each-way punters. I think Simonsig will win. Champion Hurdle JM: I’ve been looking to take on Hurricane Fly but have been struggling to find something to beat him. I didn’t think he was impressive when he won the Champion Hurdle like for his other wins so maybe Cheltenham is not the course to bring the best out of him. Ruby didn’t think he gave him a good ride in last year’s race. What will make the running? That will be a key factor. Rock On Ruby is probably under-rated. NR: Hurricane Fly is one to take on without a doubt, I think the Champion Hurdle two years ago bottomed him and Peddlers Cross. He is nine now and is better when the mud is flying. Zarkandar is tough and admirable but I just wonder if this sharper of the two hurdles courses is ideal. Binocular is not good enough and Grandouet has had one run in 16 months. That leaves you with Rock On Ruby who could easily be another Hardy Eustace so he is my fancy. PJ: I was a Grandouet man until he missed his prep but feel you need everything to go your way to win a championship race. I am forming a late strong opinion that it will be won by either Rock On Ruby on Zarkandar who are both battlers and love Cheltenham whereas I am not sure that applies to Hurricane Fly which may seem like an odd thing to say given he has won a Champion Hurdle. You can get 11/8 Rock On Ruby to finish in the first three which is a maximum bet for me, he should be nearer 4/9 to hit the frame. Name me three horse that will beat him. MS: Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar have been the two for money of late. If the ground comes up decent I can see Cinders And Ashes running a big race, he looked great when I saw him at a media day last week. Tuesday Shoulder Races: JM: Cantlow is interesting for the JLT and ticks a lot of boxes. Knockara Beau is well handicapped for the same race but is a frustrating horse. It’s hard to imagine Fruity O’Rooney not running well. The Druid’s Nephew has a chance in the novice handicap but I have some concerns about the form of the yard. Attaglance is potentially well handicapped for that race as is Carlito Brigante who brings good course form though he wouldn’t want it too soft. I don’t think Colour Squadron jumps well enough. NR: I was a huge fan of Our Mick’s for the JLT last year when he was third but not so much this season and he is favourite. One run this season and unseating his rider isn’t my profile. I like Tour Des Champs if he runs as like the novice angle for this race but he has plenty of experience though the bug at the Twiston-Davies yard is a concern. Tarla has the class to finish second in the Mares Hurdle if she runs. I like The Druid’s Nephew very much for the novice handicap chase, in fact he is one of the bets of the meeting. PJ: I like Our Mick who is marginally higher than last year in the ratings but was a good third as a novice and being such a big horse I expect he will have improved at least a good 7lbs physically. Horses placed in this race the previous year have a decent record. I fancy Kentford Grey Lady to give Quevega a race. The yard are quiet but she put up a career best performance in the Cleeve during that period and loves the Cheltenham hill. She appeals in the betting without Quevega market. If White Star Line runs in the novice handicap I give him a good each-way chance. I don’t usually back 9-year-old maidens but he was second in the race last year to Hunt Ball and is 3lbs lower this time and really caught the eye last time after running in races he couldn’t win. He is also interesting at a big price if he switches to the JLT. MS: The Druid’s Nephew has been consistently well backed over the last few days and his nose second to Hadrian’s Approach reads well. Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle JM: Pont Alexandre is visually very impressive. Regardless of what Jonjo says that he will improve for a better surface I would be worried about the ground for Taquin Du Seuil whose form is on bad ground and has a very high knee action. NR: I was going to back The New One until news broke of the bug in his stable. Taquin Du Seuil has the action of a deep-ground horse so I can’t have it. I always respect Mouse Morris in the novice races at Cheltenham so Rule The World interests me. When favs win this race they usually win it easily and it is not hard seeing Pont Alexandre being another. PJ: I can’t see this going out to the top three in the market. I was edging the way of The New One at the prices before the news that some of his his yard have the bug and I can see Taquin Du Seuil usurping him as second favourite. As the race gets the closer the vibes for Pont Alexandre just get stronger and stronger who I see starting closer to Evens than 2/1. I suspect I will let the race pass without a bet. MS: If you want to back Pont Alexandre then do it now, he will be very well backed. RSA Chase JM: Boston Bob has been unimpressive and I don’t think Back In Focus is quick enough. Hadrian’s Approach doesn’t jump well enough and Unioniste has to improve a good deal on his narrow defeat of him and his Cheltenham handicap win. Dynaste is the clear best horse if he runs here. NR: I think Dynaste will run in the Jewson. Ive backed Lord Windermere at a very big price as he looks just the type that often outruns its odds in the race though concede he will need to brush up his jumping. PJ: I hear Ruby Walsh will ride Unioniste as he loves him and his jumping so I see him starting favourite over Boston Bob if Dynaste does go for the Jewson. In that scenario I would have Unioniste as top of my list as the most likely winner but do feel there is value in Lyreen Legend’s price who is a tough, classy stayer that fits the RSA mould in many ways. MS: The money has been Dynaste for the Jewson over the last two days but that has not been from those connected to the Pipe yard. I think Boston Bob is over-hyped and is one I would like to take on. Reply With Quote Yesterday, 03:03 PM #123 Rhinestone Cowboy Senior Member Join Date Feb 2012 Posts 435 Queen Mother Champion Chase JM: You don’t have to have a bet. Just watch and enjoy Sprinter Sacre. NR: Hard to see an angle. I just hope Finian’s Rainbow and Sizing Europe run so we can gauge just how good Sprinter Sacre really is. PJ: It looks like Sizing Europe win run here which can make the market for Finian’s Rainbow in a without the favourite book for which he is second favourite. I am not usually forgiving when a horse has run as badly as him on both starts this season but Geraghty is adamant that was just heavy ground and he beat Sizing Europe in last year’s race and is the one of the two I feel has a better chance of maintaining that level over 2m as strongly feel the Ryanair trip is now Sizing Europe’s optimum. MS: It looks like Sizing Europe will run here and given his Festival profile he looks the obvious each-way play.
Wednesday Shoulder Races JM: Pendra is potentially well handicapped in the Coral Cup. Back In Focus would be my pick for the NH Chase though Buddy Bolero’s form is working out very well. Regal Encore could be interesting in the bumper for Anthony Honeyball and J P McManus. I am told Empiracle works all over Melodic Rendezvous. No real view as yet on the Fred Winter. NR: Ericht and Bourne if they run in the Coral Cup interest me. In the NH Chase, Drawn And Drank could be overpriced, I know Enda Bolger likes him though McCoy seems to think Buddy Bolero is a good thing. I also have time for Godsmejudge back against novices. I like Blackmail most in the Bumper and took a chance on him when it was announced Geraghty had been booked last week. Megalypos is my Fred Winter horse having run well in a Grade 1 and had a wind operation since. PJ: Megalypos is also my Fred Winter horse for the same reasons as Nick and I am also on Blackmail, but after the gallop last Sunday when it was reported in was Ted Veale that worked well but the horse in question was, in fact, Blackmail, and he really did catch the eye. Sea Of Thunder is a big price in the NH Chase but is ground dependent and if its soft, I would lose some interest. Pendra and Son Of Flicka would be my two against the field in the Coral Cup. MS: Le Vent D’Antan and Blackmail have been the two for money in the bumper in the last few days. I am very keen on Saphir De Rheu in the Fred Winter who has a similar profile to Sanctuaire when he won it. I think Back In Focus will start favourite for the NH Chase but he looks slow to me, even for this race so prefer Rival D’Estruval. We have kept on the right side of Edeymi for the Festival handicap hurdles in which he is entered including the Coral Cup, he looked to be given what is known as a considerate ride last time. Jewson Novices’ Chase JM: Dynaste is different class and should win if he runs her . If he runs in the RSA then I would fancy Captain Conan. NR: Dynaste will be hard to beat if he runs here. I think Aupcharlie is a bridle horse and I think two runs at 3m when beaten each time might have bottomed him. I give Argocat some respect. PJ: If Dynaste runs here then I think he will win. He has a better chance here than in the RSA so I think they might end up taking this option. The trainer is convinced Captain Conan wasn’t right last time but he only won as Third Intention threw it away and he is clearly better over 2m on three lines of form with the runner-up. Aupcharlie may not have stayed the last twice but he may also not fancy a battle and the Cheltenham hill could catch him out in that respect. In short, Dynaste if he runs but, if he doesn’t, then Module makes most appeal as he has particularly impressed me at this trip and has Cheltenham winning form to boot. MS: Dynaste will be around a 6/4 shot if he runs and probably win. I think Captain Conan will drift. I’m not convinced about Aupcharlie at all. Ryanair Chase JM: I would want to take Cue Card on who is too exuberant (as are many Tizzard horses) for a high class race. Sizing Europe would be my pick if they favour this race over the Champion Chase. NR: I can’t have Albertas Run off the back of that gallop at Kempton, it’s a leap of faith to back Champion Court, last year’s hard race may have ruined Riverside Theatre and Cue Card could be too exuberant for a race like this. Mouse Morris wants to run First Lieutenant in the Gold Cup and I feel if he does run here 2m5f could be too short on the ground but don’t forget his China Rock. He had not got home in the last two Gold Cups and is overpriced. PJ: I think First Lieutenant is made for the race and will be my main fancy if he runs. He looks a left-handed course, spring horse who has been doing well to run so well in races like the Hennessy and Lexus as I don’t fancy to hit form until he gets better ground. Sizing Europe would be the danger if he ran here but it looks like it could be the Champion Chase for him. China Rock is the wrong price on official ratings and could easily sneak a place as I’m not convinced at all about Cue Card, Menorah and Champion Court. MS: Cue Card has to be taken on and he is definitely a lay for us on the day. We’re keen on First Lieutenant who has the best form of these this season. World Hurdle JM: I thougt Reve De Sivola got the run of the race in the Cleeve. It looks like Oscar Whisky should stay the trip and he would be my preference despite not having a great winning record at Cheltenham. NR: I don’t think Reve De Sivola will be quick enough if the ground is not soft. Smad Place was third last season in a better renewal than this so is worth a look as is Solwhit who is not far behind Hurricane Fly when they kept meeting a couple of years ago. PJ: I went to a preview in Mayfair last night and all 5 panellists said Reve De Sivola needs a bog. I really don’t get where this is coming from, he handles decent ground perfectly well and, besides, there will be cut in the ground on Thursday. There have also been rumours he has had training problems but when I spoke to one of his owners he said it was news to him and Nick Williams. I think he is the strongest stayer in the race and will outstay his rivals with Johnson winding it up from further out than in the Cleeve. Interesting to hear Alan King thinks Smad Place has just come right and, given the way the race is likely to be run, I can see a creeping ride from McCoy on Get Me Out Of Here manoeuvre him into the frame back at the Festival where he has been second in each of the last three years. MS: This is a massive ground race and Oscar Whisky and Get Me Out Of Here’s chances will improve if it is not testing. On soft ground I think Reve De Sivola will start favourite. I’m not a fan of Peddlers Cross. Thursday Shoulder Races JM: Shutthefrontdoor won a decent race at Carlisle and is interesting for the Pertemps as is another of Jonjo’s in Dursey Sound if he runs. Too many horses in the Plate and Kim Muir have multiple entries to take a clear view at this stage. NR: Close House and my cliff horse, Captain Sunshine, interest me most in the Pertemps. I think Hunt Ball has a huge chance in the Plate on his Aintree run last spring. Maganimity has a bit of class that could be important in the Kim Muir and was a good second to a Grade 2 last time and I also like Lost Glory of Jonjo’s if he runs who hasn’t run since October and Prince Of Pirates. PJ: Willie Wumpkins must have been the last Pertemps winner I backed so I’ll go for the obvious favourite Sam Winner to try and put that shameful record straight. I like Prince Of Pirates for Henderson, McManus and De Boinville in the Kim Muir and have no idea whatsoever about the Plate as yet. MS: Our Head of Trading is keen on Poquelin at a big price for the Plate. I believe Paul Nicholls backed Sam Winner for the Pertemps as soon as the prices came out. Shutthefrontdoor looks the best alternative. Reply With Quote Yesterday, 03:04 PM #124 Rhinestone Cowboy Senior Member Join Date Feb 2012 Posts 435 Triumph Hurdle JM: Our Conor is very solid and will be hard to beat. NR: I’m very keen on Our Conor. I put up Diakali ante-post before Our Conor easily beat him. Mullins feels he could reverse on better ground and not front running. Leopardstown is a stiffer track that many feel so I don’t see stamina being a problem for Our Conor. PJ: Our Conor should be clear favourite not a marginal favourite. I thought he was fantastic at Leopardstown which came off the back of him missing his Christmas engagement so there could be even more to come and he has everything I look for in a Triumph horse. Far West impressed me at Ascot having unimpressed me the time before and I rate him a bigger threat than Rolling Star as, like Our Conor, he is more of a ‘here and now’ horse whereas I feel Rolling Star could lack experience. MS: Our Conor is a half brother to a four miler so I don’t see stamina as a problem. If it comes up testing I see Far West starting favourite through. I’ll be surprised if Rolling Star is not the third choice of punters regardless of the ground.
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle JM: Utopies Des Bordes is very game and receives a 7lbs mares’ allowance. I have some doubts about Ballycasey. Broadway Buffalo is an outsider to consider if he runs. No strong views. NR: This is the hurdling equivalent of the RSA and we need a tough hardy horse, I’m not sure Ballycasey is that and could lack experience. African Gold is the horse I like but I want to see how the Twiston-Davies run earlier in the week given the bug in his yard. I think Champagne Fever is crying out for a step up to this 3m. PJ: I’ve backed Our Vinnie and Utopies Des Bordes each-way at double figure prices and am happy with that though I can’t see anything wrong with At Fishers Cross at all. Ballycasey looks like he is priced up on connections rather than anything else. MS: We are keen to keep At Fishers Cross on side after his Cheltenham win. If they run Champagne Fever here that could suggest the same owner/trainer combination would not fancy their Ballycasey as much as the market indicates. Gold Cup JM: Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghthy both think we have over-hyped Sir Des Champs in England. However, the way he powered clear on the run-in to win last year’s Jewson is hard to forget and I felt at the time that we saw the following season’s Gold Cup winner. That still remains my view. Bobs Worth is a poor price for a horse with just one this season. NR: A hard race for me to find a value bet in. Silviniaco Conti has had the perfect season but I just sense Nicholls has doubts he may fall short. I could see myself going with The Giant Bolster or Cape Tribulation as a value advise for Racing Plus. PJ: I think Sir Des Champs is the most likely winner and will improve again as he had done from race to race this season, which he will need to. Sometimes you just have to go with your eyes over the Form Book and he looked a future Gold Cup to me with the style in which he won last year’s Jewson. Returning to Cheltenham, better ground and step up in trip can bring around that improvement. I still feel The Giant Bolster can place again. MS: I think the bookmakers might try and get Bobs Worth off just one run this season unless Henderson has another first three days like last year. I like him most though, he loves Cheltenham and gets the trip. Friday Shoulder Races JM: Court Minstrel would interest me if they waited for this but I’d want to see what happens in the Imperial Cup before firming up an opinion. For the Grand Annual, Rody’s form from Warwick is brilliant and if form means anything he has a very strong chance. NR: Gevrey Chambertin for the Martin Pipe. I like Alderwood for the Grand Annual who is lower over fences than hurdles and Rody as that Warwick form is working out very well. Ifandbutwhynot and Discoteca catch my eye in the County. PJ: I like Ted Veale’s each-way chances in the County and fancy him to reverse Leopardstown form with Abbey Lane on 10lbs better terms on better ground. The Grand Annual is too open but I’ve backed Gevrey Chambertin today NR No bet at 8/1 for the Martin Pipe Hurdle as see him going off near 3/1. Salsify wins the Foxhunters again. MS: Ifandbutwhynot was my Champion Bumper horse last year where he was nowhere but I will stick with him again for the County. He won well at Musselburgh last time. If they were to book Carberry for Kid Cassidy for the Grand Annual, he would be perfect for him like he was for Bellvano for the same owner/trainer last year. Charity Bets: JM: My Tent Or Yours (Supreme) NR: Rock On Ruby (Champion Hurdle) PJ: Our Conor (Triumph) MS: Saphir De Rheu (Fred Winter)
Dont know if anyone has posted this link http://cheltenham.olbg.com/preview/stream.php Preview night live from Cheltenham. Theyve just stopped for a break, part 2 coming up
