Daily Thread Thurs 14th Feb

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
18,609
11,653
113
Maidenhead, Berkshire
A shocking days racing tomorrow so I wouldnt blame you for giving the racing a miss and spending valuable time with your wives/girlfriends/both on Valentines Day. However, if you fancy a punt then let me steer you toward KILVERGAN BOY 13-2 4.30 Leicester. A bit of a monkey but a very consistent performer which makes it all the more surprising to me that the handicapper has seen fit to drop him to an extraordinarily lenient mark of 87.
I dont think there is a huge amount of depth to this race and most of the runners have question marks against them. Kilvergan Boy has Sam back in the saddle tomorrow and having won off 91 here last year he looks an absolute steal to me. The yard like to get the money down so the market should confirm my opinion. It may be a touch softer than would be ideal but he should handle it.
 
Tomorrow i will be playing a little EW on DUNNO in the 5.30 at Kempton. His mark has absolutely plummeted and little signs last time that maybe just finding his way again. Top priced 14/1 and a feeling there may be some interest in this.
 
Just noticed that the Leicester race is a Bet365 4-1+ race. The bonus race is the Kempton 7.30 and looks to have some shady individuals in it. RYSBRACK, unpenalised for a cheeky win in a Wolves jumpers bumper is "very" interesting.
 
Yours definitely should run well Stick. I keep getting drawn to Dickie Johnson getting down 10 stone to ride an absolute dog The Last Bridge for his mother on what is that ones handicap debut in as poor a race your likely to find. Its also Dickie's only ride of the day. Will watch back a couple of his races to see if there is anything I can find to suggest the horse has any ability.
 
If anywhere near his best, surely Zitenka is worth a punt at 7/1 in the 2.10 at Kelso. I got 10/1 earlier at B365 but that seems to have gone. 7/1 still seems like value though.
 
2.10 Kelso

Forzy Origny 25/1

There are definitely quite a few risks attached to Martin Todhunter's 11 year old but if bouncing back the form he showed for Alan King a few years ago he must have a superb chance off an effective mark of 121 when taking talented claimer Ryan Hatch's 7lb claim into account. A hurdle/chase winner in France back in 2005/06, Forzy Origny joined Alan King's stable back in late 2009 when absent from the track for over 3 years and after 4 runs in handicaps over hurdles for the King yard he made an absolute mockery of his handicap chase mark of 122 on his British debut over fences when annihilating a field of 9 runners at Huntingdon in a Class 3 Handicap back in April 2010 in facile fashion by 17L. Given that authoritative performance, the handicapper unsurprisingly raised him 17lb to a mark of 139 after that success and he ran another excellent race off his revised mark a month later when finishing 2nd in a Listed Handicap at Uttoxeter. For one reason or another, his then owner Robert Ogden decided to move him to Nicky Henderson and it proved a disastrous decision as he really floundered at Seven Barrows. On the back of an 11 month absence, he made his stable debut for Henderson in the Topham Chase at Aintree where he finished a comprehensively beaten 53L beaten 11th of 30 in April 2011 but I think its probably worth noting that Henderson must have thought a bit about him to run him in such a competitive race after such a long absence. His 3rd last outing came on the back of a 7 month absence in November 2011 when pulled up at Newbury off the same mark of 140 and his final start for Henderson came on the back of a 3 month absence when the same fate befell him when pulled up at Doncaster off 139 in February last year.

Martin Todhunter picked him up after that and he made his stable debut in October last year in a very competitive 25f Veteran's Handicap Chase at Aintree on the back of an 8 month absence and although ultimately outclassed I thought he showed enough to think he's still capable of winning races. Off a mark of 132 on good ground, Forzy Origny settled in behind a strong pace and for quite a long way he seemed to be travelling fine under James Reveley. However, the pace increased again and he perhaps seemed a small bit lazy (I think he found things happening a little too quick for him) and when beaten Reveley allowed his 11 year old partner to come home in his own time. That race looks a strong affair with the 3rd winning twice subsequently and that very competitive Class 2 handicap is a much better race that he will encounter today. Forzy Origny must be a pretty hard horse to train given his sporadic racecourse appearances over the past few years and he comes here on the back of a 110 day absence which is a slight concern. The handicapper has relented again for his most recent effort by dropping him to a mark of 128 and he faces by far his easiest assignment for quite a few years. Since his emphatic success on his British debut over fences, Forzy Origny has been confined to racing in very competitive Listed and Class 2 Handicaps and he now drops back into the same grade of Class 3 Handicap for the first time since that facile victory.

Although he's a lot of form on better ground, I actually feel that a return to a soft surface (acts on it fine) will also help him a lot given that he won't get caught out for pace which is understandable at his veteran age. In this Amateur Handicap, I'm definitely buoyed by the booking of 7lb claimer Ryan Hatch as he is a jockey who I think is well worth his claim, especially against fellow Apprentices. This represents Hatch's only ride of the day and first start for the yard and, given that he is based with Nigel Twiston-Davies, I can only assume that he's making an awfully long trip between his Naunton and Kelso which I make a greater than 10 hour round journey for this solitary ride. When taking into account his young jockey's claim, I definitely feel Forzy Origny is potentially on a very good mark of effectively 121 and he'll have a lovely racing weight of 10-12. Although there seems to be a few horses that like to be prominent, I would love if Forzy Origny was given the instruction to go from the front if viable as I think it could see him return to his best form. This represents Martin Todhunter's only runner of the day and although he is winnerless since October, he's not a prolific winner under rules so it shouldn't be viewed as a tremendous negative. Off his lowest mark and in his lowest grade since his last win (albeit nearly 3 years ago), if Todhunter has revitalised this 11 year old grey then I feel he's definitely on a very winnable mark and if all goes to plan then hopefully he can deservedly resume winning ways at a very nice price.
 
Morning all.

Just a quick post from me this morning. Have just backed URIAH HEEP at 50/1 with Bet Victor for the Triumph Hurdle. Available at 66s in other places but NR Free Bet with BV and if he doesn't win/run a big race on Saturday I doubt he will be running at Cheltenham. Anyways he was a capable performer on the flat when he could be arsed and I have seen Alan King do really well with horses that weren't great on the flat (Katchit,Franchoek) two that stand out. The 5/1 for Our Connor is a joke that will not be winning at Cheltenham can't believe he is fav. Rolling Star is the only decent Juvenile I have seen so far. Far West has been beating donkeys <laugh>
 
Nothing but 5/1 is a joke will not win <ok> 100% promise. Not that Uriah Heep will even turn up but at least I will get a free bet <rofl>
 
rainbowview said:
Morning all.

Just a quick post from me this morning. Have just backed URIAH HEEP at 50/1 with Bet Victor for the Triumph Hurdle. Available at 66s in other places but NR Free Bet with BV and if he doesn't win/run a big race on Saturday I doubt he will be running at Cheltenham. Anyways he was a capable performer on the flat when he could be arsed and I have seen Alan King do really well with horses that weren't great on the flat (Katchit,Franchoek) two that stand out. The 5/1 for Our Connor is a joke that will not be winning at Cheltenham can't believe he is fav. Rolling Star is the only decent Juvenile I have seen so far. Far West has been beating donkeys <laugh>
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Welcome to the forum ;)
 
Howdy chaps.i have an interview with a south african investment company later and im ****ing it,nervous as ****,any tips!should i tell them i supported apartaid!!
 
ste doran said:
Howdy chaps.i have an interview with a south african investment company later and im ****ing it,nervous as ****,any tips!should i tell them i supported apartaid!!
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Good luck with the interview...........whatever you do don't ask them how Bladerunner is doing these days
 
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