Daily Thread Sat 2nd Feb

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
18,609
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Maidenhead, Berkshire
The losing streak continues so you may want to lay this rather than back it.
SHAMMICK BOY 14-1 1.00 Wetherby was fourth to Home Run at the end of December which by itself means he wasnt too far behind a very decent horse. The runner up that day, Extremely So, has also won since. His last run was soon after the yard had been under quarantine for Equine herpes so there is every possibility that he may have not been as sharp as he will be tomorrow. To aid his cause the handicapper has kindly eased him a couple of pounds. All in all I think that makes him worthy of a little each way flutter.


Welsh Champion Hurdle thread
 
Losing run won't last Sticky <ok>

Saturday racing again and a welcome respite from some very mediocre fare over the past week.

Racing from Sandown, Wetherby and Ffos Las plus AW from Lingfield.

Sandown sees the reappearance of Captain Conan in the 2-25 Novice Chase, with only 3 opponents &#8211; albeit 2 with strong credentials &#8211; he will surely take this on route to Cheltenham, currently 2-1 ON and that is probably a good price.

Oscara Dara turns up at Ffos Las, shouldering top weight in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, unlike the real version &#8211; a handicap. The opposition doesn't look that strong however, with Balder Succes next in the weights, getting 10lb from the selection. OD won the Lanzarote in good style, despite a couple of errors and although there are a some in-form lightweights in Tanerko Emery, Trop Hill and The Romford Pele, I think Oscara Dara will have too much class.

At Wetherby, on another competitive and interesting card, I like the look of Goulanes in the Towton Novices chase. Pipe is throwing this exciting newcomer to the chasing ranks in at grade 2 level and his seemingly only threat will be Houblon Des Obeaux

Good luck forumites!
 
Two horses to put up for me tomorrow.
Lingfield
2.55 Speak the truth 9-2
I need help with this horse as I have backed him his last 3 runs and remain convinced he is on a winning mark and yet each time he proves me wrong, I am following him off a cliff whilst wearing a t-shirt emblazoned with his name and a scarf in his colours basically, but should he win you will hear the 'I knew it' from miles around.
3.30 Askaud 25-1 EW
This is a horse that has ability but it is unfortunately not easy to predict when he will show it. At the price tomorrow however I feel he is worth an each way play.

ROTO - I see Gore's Island is out again tomorrow at Sandown, I know he did not go in for us last time but he did not run too badly either. I quite fancy him tomorrow and have just taken the price, what are your thoughts? I know you put a very convincing write up for him on Boxing day when he was pulled out and last time out also.

Good luck all
 
Reebok said:
Losing run won't last Sticky <ok>

Saturday racing again and a welcome respite from some very mediocre fare over the past week.

Racing from Sandown, Wetherby and Ffos Las plus AW from Lingfield.

Sandown sees the reappearance of Captain Conan in the 2-25 Novice Chase, with only 3 opponents &#8211; albeit 2 with strong credentials &#8211; he will surely take this on route to Cheltenham, currently 2-1 ON and that is probably a good price.

Oscara Dara turns up at Ffos Las, shouldering top weight in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, unlike the real version &#8211; a handicap. The opposition doesn't look that strong however, with Balder Succes next in the weights, getting 10lb from the selection. OD won the Lanzarote in good style, despite a couple of errors and although there are a some in-form lightweights in Tanerko Emery, Trop Hill and The Romford Pele, I think Oscara Dara will have too much class.

At Wetherby, on another competitive and interesting card, I like the look of Goulanes in the Towton Novices chase. Pipe is throwing this exciting newcomer to the chasing ranks in at grade 2 level and his seemingly only threat will be Houblon Des Obeaux

Good luck forumites!
Click to expand...

Tanerko Emery for me Reebok.... Improving sort that s getting over a stone from Oscara Dara, relishes heavy conditions, I think will stay and Connor O'Farrell seems to get on well with the horse. The horse holds an entry at the Cheltenham Festival so I'll take him to continue to improve. The Romford Pele is the main danger for me!
 
Had a long look at the Wetherby opener Stick and it looks an extremely difficult race. Favourite Renoyr made a very pleasing stable debut to score in good style and a 10lb rise doesn't look excessive. I put up Thunder Sheik LTO who ran a very good race to finish 2nd behind a Tizzard handicap debutant who I'm sure will prove well handicapped. Embsay Crag is another who caught my eye being a C+D winner who ran a fine race LTO on his last start for Kate Walton on his first start for 6 months and if Philip Kirby's training techniques have freshened him up I think he'll run a big race off his current mark. Even Beauboreen makes quite a bit of appeal on his handicap debut after running a monster on his racecourse debut in a race that worked out well before getting tired late on having tried to go with a McCain odds on shot over an extended 2m3f. I said after his last start that I would definitely back Thunder Sheik NTO but it just looks such an open contest that I think I'll leave my powder dry for the race.
 
Blue I'd be very, very worried about the ground and I think he's the sort of horse who will be massively benefited by being dropped out the back of a big field.
 
3.45 Ffos Las

Cocacobana 11/1

I quite like the look of Peter Bowen's unexposed 8 year old who was quite progressive for Graeme McPherson last season over hurdles and if stripping fitter for his last run on stable debut on the back of a 9 month absence then I think he's going to run a big race. After making his debut back in March 2010 for Rebecca Curtis in a Bumper, Cocacobana joined Graeme McPherson after that and after nearly a year off and after running in three quick novice hurdles in the spring of 2011 and he made a winning handicap debut on the back of 7 month absence over an extended 2m4f at Uttoxeter in November 2011 off a mark of 100. Under 10lb claimer Killian Moore, Cocacobana came from the clouds that day to get up and score by a head as he certainly left the form of his novice hurdles behind. After slightly disappointing a month later when finishing 3rd at Haydock last year off a mark of 104, he improved again significantly to score off the same mark on his next start in February last year to score impressively by 8L and he followed that up with another victory off a mark of 112 a month later over 3m at Chepstow when putting in a very determined display to score by 1.5L in a race that looks pretty decent form. Cocacobana's final start for McPherson came off a mark of 120 at Cheltenham in April last year when a little disappointing before joining his current trainer.

Cocacobana's first start for the Bowen yard came over this C+D last month off a mark of 120 where he ran an encouraging race and I definitely felt he would strip fitter for the run (despite running well on the back of a break for McPherson). In the same race that tomorrow's favourite The Bear Trap won on the bridle, Cocacobana travelled quite sweetly for much of the race under Tom O'Brien and looked to have every chance at 3 out but he seemed a very weary horse on the run in as he made mistakes at the final two flights as he faded to a 13L beaten 4th. After being dropped 2lb for that run to a mark of 118, Cocacobana faces The Bear Trap on 13lb better terms and I think Peter Bowen's charges chances will hinge a lot on whether Rebecca Curtis's animal turns up in the same form or not as he would prove incredibly difficult to beat if returning in that same vain of form. However, given the swing in weights and my opinion that this 8 year old will come on significantly for the run I certainly think he is the value call in the race. However, I would definitely recommend perhaps having a cover bet or a bet W/O Fav as he could be settling for 2nd place. With only 11 starts to date, Cocacobana is certainly open to considerable improvement and is currently 3-6 in handicaps and I'm sure that there is more to come from him. He shouldn't have any issue with the testing conditions and given he has won over further if this race becomes a real slog it could well fall into his hands. Tom O'Brien takes the ride again and I'm confident of a big run at a nice price.
 
3.55 Wetherby

Cloudy Too 9/1

I'm quite interested in Sue Smith's 7 year old on just his 2nd start in handicaps over fences for whom Timmy Murphy is a very eye catching booking as he is having his first ride for the trainer, especially given his regular pilot Jonathan England is at the track. After showing some good form by winning a Novice Hurdle in impressive style and after a summer break, Sue Smith started the then 5 year old's chasing career at the end of 2011 where he failed to complete in 3 starts where poor jumping was a huge characteristic of his races and I think in hindsight he was probably sent over the larger obstacles a year too soon. He reverted back to hurdles for the rest of the season and after a couple of good efforts off marks of 122 he stepped up on those efforts in a big way when emphatically scoring by an eased down 12L off a mark of 121 which saw the handicapper up him a stone to a mark of 135 in March 2012. He had one more start off that mark over hurdles in April before he was off for the summer and sent back over fences where he made an excellent return to chasing by scoring by a going away 2.25L from his stablemate Vintage Star in a Beginners Chase over 2m4f at Carlisle. He jumped well throughout in the testing conditions and after being slightly outpaced his stamina kicked in as he forged clear in the run in. That looks very good form with the runner up subsequently blitzing a 5 runner field by a heavily eased 28L which has earned him a mark of 137 whilst the 16L beaten 3rd has gone close off a mark of 120 subsequently. Under a penalty, Cloudy Too was stepped up into a really hot looking Novice Chase over 3m at Doncaster where I don't think he was suited by making the running and I think he burned himself out trying to go with a couple of very talented horses in the shape of Rocky Creek and Mozoltov as he finished a nearly 20L beaten 4th but I don't think he lost much in defeat.

Cloudy Too's last start came on his handicap debut off his current mark of 129 in the North Yorkshire Grand National over nearly 10f than tomorrow's trip of an extended 2m4f where he was supported late on into a 10/1 chance. After settling in the rear of the field, he had just started to make some progress into midfield before I think he over-jumped the 10th flight as both horse and rider hit the deck. Luckily, he got up from the fall and given he's out less than a month later the mishap clearly hasn't left lasting damage. Although he's stepped significantly back in trip, he proved his effectiveness over it when scoring for the first time over fences and although I feel he'll be better over further the trip isn't much of a concern to me in these testing conditions. As stated, I find the booking of Timmy Murphy fascinating on what will be his first start for the trainer and I think he looks tailor made for Cloudy Too who should benefit from Murphy's hold up style of riding as he waits around for nearly 3 hours for this engagement. Based on what he has achieved over hurdles and fences to date, I certainly think he is up to defying a mark of 129 and I'm hoping they go a good clip in the conditions as a slog will suit him down to the ground. Although the trainer has a seemingly more fancied runner in the shape of Gansey in the race, I'm quite confident of a big showing from this unexposed 7 year old and if none the worse for his latest fall and if his jumping holds up I think he's going to be bang there at the finish and hopefully victorious at a nice price.
 
Sandown
1.50 Kudu Country 4/1
3.35 Keppols Hill 2/1
4.10 Kapga De Cerisy 9/4
4.40 Shangani 9/4
 
Hi all. Looking to get my arse into gear for the Leagues comp. I decided to put all my selections in the one race, the West Wales National over three and a half miles in the mud. The more I looked at the race the more I began to feel all warm and fuzzy about Our Island. It has form on the course and been placed over four miles, so it should have the heart to grind it out.

14:40 Our Island. EW.
 
I know it's asking a lot, but if Houblon Des Obeaux can get his jumping together, it's not inconceivable that he can do Captain Conan for stamina over 2m4f on heavy ground. Very tempting at the prices (5.9 on BF).

Paul Nicholls describes Keppols Hill as "probably my best chance of the day", and this is one trainer who'snot in the habit of putting punters away. He's on a high enough mark (136) against experienced handicappers, but if Ruby can keep him out of trouble at the head of affairs he can build on a promising win in a beginners chase at Chepstow.
 
Good morning all... Opened the email today and found ATR had sent me a tracker alert, Kaylif Aramis, @ 8/1... So i thought that i would just check the odds and which race its in and find the 8/1 has gone and now its into 5/1... Prob because Hugh Taylor has tipped it up in one of his fancies for today...

Anyway ive had a piece of it at the 5's...<cheers>


Edit - Its in the 3.45 at Ffos...
 
Coral given me a free bet so done acca on:

1:30 Ffos - Mister WK 15/8
2:25 Sandown - Captain Conan 4/9
3:10 Ffos - Tour Des Champs 5/6
 
I am prepared to take a chance on Viking Blond 9-1 3:35 Sandown. This horse has fallen to his lowest chase mark (again) at the tender age of 8, and if you consider only his form at 3 miles, then he has some very strong recent form. The ground may be a slight concern, but he has won on heavy earlier on in his career. Therefore, at the price i am taking a chance that, at this grade, this horse stays a shade over 3 miles and no further.
 
15:20 Wetherby - Fill The Power e/w

(Only 6 runners at the moment, but have had small wager e/w at current best odds of 14/1).
 
Scoop 6 and ew lucky 63:

1:50 Sandown - Eastlake 11/2
2:05 Ffos Las - Oscara Dara 7/2
2:40 Ffos Las - Alfie Spinner 7/2
2:55 Lingfield - Time Medicean 6/1
3:30 Lingfield - Grey Mirage 5/1
3:35 Sandown - Roberto Goldback 7/1
 
Oscara Dara 7/2 in the Welsh Champion Hurdle is my best bet (although I have also had a few pounds on Romford Pele as he looks main rival).

Then we have Oh Crick in the 1.50, a horse who owes me nothing, but on his penultimate effort he looks a horse that could win a race like this. He injured himself last time so the result isn't too shocking, and at 10/1 I think he is a good bet.

Finally, Keppols Hill for Paul Nicholls is quoted as his "Best chance of a winner today" and I agree, at 9/4 he is a fair price and a fair bet.

Three bets, and now off to put the sport on TV for an afternoon of fun!
 
Hello lads.

Nothing for me today...playing on the Spanish football instead...got a couple of corkers for tomorrow at Punchytown.

Wtf have the Pakistani cricketers been on...49 all out.

GL all...off to pick a couple for the leagues compo.
 
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