Plumpton subject to inspection.
A race I wanted to bring attention to was the 2:50 at Wolverhampton, where I think a big price winner might be on the cards, and not only that, there are three horses who could potentially spring a surprise,and even more crazy is that I'm talking about a 7-runner race!
Cool Sky and English Summer head the market. Cool Sky has the 7lb claim of Robert Tart (Imagine the headline material if he makes it big) to offset its penalty, but has had 3 tough races and I think might find its progression halted from top weight here. Jamie Spencer rides English Summer and there is no doubt in my mind that he will bid to make all. However, I think he might not ride the horse as agressively as he needs, and that he will leave himself vulnerable to some better turn of foots against his one paced, although very tough, front-runner. Torero is coming back from a long break and you would magine will come on for the outing, and a little respite from the handicapper will help before that one progresses throughout the spring.
Cheers For Thea remains well treated but has shown no sign of wanting a mile and a half and I cannot see it changing today.
That leaves 3 remaining.
Firstly, Admiral Duque 20/1is beginning to look well handicapped, and he won a 1m 6f race here at Wolverhampton by 7 lengths off a mark of 72 with Josh Baudains also on that day (rides him regularly). Off 73 today, he is clearly feasibly handicapped (the same 7lb claim applies today as did then), and he had a bit of a nightmare o the bend LTO where a) the held up horses got left for dead and b) he was taken out so wide by another horse he s never going to fully recover, eventually being eased 11L behind the winner Mica Mika.
Secondly we have Boston Blue 25/1, where similar sentiments can be echoed. He was 2nd off a mark of 80 at Newbury in Summer 2010, and the handicapper has dropped him another 5lb today to allow him to race off just 67- his lowest mark for quite some time. He was well beaten the last twice but the race comments and race replays tell you that he hasn't really been fully tuned the last twice, and the positive thing for us today is that his sort of thing has been done before.
In the summer of 2011, the horse was often beaten in similar margins 'lost place, always behind' appearing in the comments box yet again, and the horse dropped from a reappearance mark of 83 down to 69, where a 7lb claimer in an Apprentice race saw him run on well to score by around 2 and a half lengths. Interestingly, he had been running over staying races -1m6f and 2m- before being dropped into that 1m 3f claimer. Iterestingly, that is also the case today- tailed off in a 2m race just two starts ago. Jimmy Quinn will get the leg up for the first time and I expect to see some money for him and also a much bolder showing in a race that really does look to have been left open for this sort of horse.
Finally, JEZZA 20/1 has dropped 11lb in its last three starts, albeit over the space of a year, and no doubt will have come on for the run when blowing away the cobwebs around Wolverhampton the last twice and will strip fitter, 'never on termsand 'outpaced' the last twice. Dropping to a mark of 62 and unning of bottom weight, you would have to think this double Wolverhampton scorer could go alot better today and crucially I think Joe Fanning beng on board might see this one track English Summer on the pace, which I think may be the key to this race. English Summer alone I dont think will see the others off from the front, but if Joe can track the pace all the way round and stay close, I can see him having too much stamina and kick off the final bend, so tactically I think Jezza will have the ideal race, especially when you consider it was a cosy winner of 65 here 2 years ago when taking up the running on the home bend that day.
My concern is that in jostling for the lead he may set himself up to be mowed down by onof the other two outsiders- especially Boston Blue if they really increase the tempo from some way out.
The staking plan I would have is 60%/20%/20%, so divide your tenner with £6, £2, and £2 wins for example, with the larger bet on Jezza, and still a handsome profit if the other two scoot in.
I have taken Jezza on the exchanges though at 44 (Betdaq), so I do have slightly larger odds on that one than the bookmakers best price I have quoted above.
Good luck if you do play- I've been wrong many, many times before so don't go mad, but I just thought the race might be teed up given the doubts over the front two, and the stamina of Cheers For Thea.
Have a good day folks
-Top.
A race I wanted to bring attention to was the 2:50 at Wolverhampton, where I think a big price winner might be on the cards, and not only that, there are three horses who could potentially spring a surprise,and even more crazy is that I'm talking about a 7-runner race!
Cool Sky and English Summer head the market. Cool Sky has the 7lb claim of Robert Tart (Imagine the headline material if he makes it big) to offset its penalty, but has had 3 tough races and I think might find its progression halted from top weight here. Jamie Spencer rides English Summer and there is no doubt in my mind that he will bid to make all. However, I think he might not ride the horse as agressively as he needs, and that he will leave himself vulnerable to some better turn of foots against his one paced, although very tough, front-runner. Torero is coming back from a long break and you would magine will come on for the outing, and a little respite from the handicapper will help before that one progresses throughout the spring.
Cheers For Thea remains well treated but has shown no sign of wanting a mile and a half and I cannot see it changing today.
That leaves 3 remaining.
Firstly, Admiral Duque 20/1is beginning to look well handicapped, and he won a 1m 6f race here at Wolverhampton by 7 lengths off a mark of 72 with Josh Baudains also on that day (rides him regularly). Off 73 today, he is clearly feasibly handicapped (the same 7lb claim applies today as did then), and he had a bit of a nightmare o the bend LTO where a) the held up horses got left for dead and b) he was taken out so wide by another horse he s never going to fully recover, eventually being eased 11L behind the winner Mica Mika.
Secondly we have Boston Blue 25/1, where similar sentiments can be echoed. He was 2nd off a mark of 80 at Newbury in Summer 2010, and the handicapper has dropped him another 5lb today to allow him to race off just 67- his lowest mark for quite some time. He was well beaten the last twice but the race comments and race replays tell you that he hasn't really been fully tuned the last twice, and the positive thing for us today is that his sort of thing has been done before.
In the summer of 2011, the horse was often beaten in similar margins 'lost place, always behind' appearing in the comments box yet again, and the horse dropped from a reappearance mark of 83 down to 69, where a 7lb claimer in an Apprentice race saw him run on well to score by around 2 and a half lengths. Interestingly, he had been running over staying races -1m6f and 2m- before being dropped into that 1m 3f claimer. Iterestingly, that is also the case today- tailed off in a 2m race just two starts ago. Jimmy Quinn will get the leg up for the first time and I expect to see some money for him and also a much bolder showing in a race that really does look to have been left open for this sort of horse.
Finally, JEZZA 20/1 has dropped 11lb in its last three starts, albeit over the space of a year, and no doubt will have come on for the run when blowing away the cobwebs around Wolverhampton the last twice and will strip fitter, 'never on termsand 'outpaced' the last twice. Dropping to a mark of 62 and unning of bottom weight, you would have to think this double Wolverhampton scorer could go alot better today and crucially I think Joe Fanning beng on board might see this one track English Summer on the pace, which I think may be the key to this race. English Summer alone I dont think will see the others off from the front, but if Joe can track the pace all the way round and stay close, I can see him having too much stamina and kick off the final bend, so tactically I think Jezza will have the ideal race, especially when you consider it was a cosy winner of 65 here 2 years ago when taking up the running on the home bend that day.
My concern is that in jostling for the lead he may set himself up to be mowed down by onof the other two outsiders- especially Boston Blue if they really increase the tempo from some way out.
The staking plan I would have is 60%/20%/20%, so divide your tenner with £6, £2, and £2 wins for example, with the larger bet on Jezza, and still a handsome profit if the other two scoot in.
I have taken Jezza on the exchanges though at 44 (Betdaq), so I do have slightly larger odds on that one than the bookmakers best price I have quoted above.
Good luck if you do play- I've been wrong many, many times before so don't go mad, but I just thought the race might be teed up given the doubts over the front two, and the stamina of Cheers For Thea.
Have a good day folks
-Top.
