Friday 11th December Daily Thread

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
18,609
11,653
113
Maidenhead, Berkshire
AW for me tomorrow and the two I am already on are PRECISION FIVE 2.00 8-1 & PUSH ME 2.30 7-1 in singles and a double.

PRECISION FIVE 2.00 Lingfield tackles ten furlongs for the first time and I believe it will bring about improvement in him. He is very lightly raced so open to find plenty. His only win to date came at this track so we know he goes well here. I like the booking of Jim Crowley and really feel that this one is overpriced.

PUSH ME 2.30 races off a mark he won within a pound of here last year. He goes well for the claimer on board and won on his return to the AW last year following a turf campaign that saw his mark ease. He looks laid out to me and the money is coming for him early as he is blue across the board on oddschecker. Still 7’s with our favourite firm so get on quick.
 
I am with you with Precision Five Stick, and the price looks very reasonable at present.

Jim Crowley is in my opinion a very underated jockey who rides the all weather tracks very well (Kempton especially), I hope he will get on a couple of decent horses next season as he deserves to. Interestingly I was listening to one of the pundits taliking about getting an edge when betting. He stated that looking for a horse being ridden for the first time by someone you see as a top jockey could mean the horse would improve perhaps 3lbs for the race. Now this may be a fair point but the example he used was if you had a horse that had been ridden by Jim Crowley but was now being ridden by Richard Kingscote that would be worth noting as the horse may improve. I have nothing against R.Kingscote but that example to me is absurd.

What Jim Crowley does on the all weather is to acutely appreciate something that amazingly still gets missed by many jocks which is that how they ride the start is at least if not more important than the finish. The amount of Jocks who still pop a horse out and let it fall into what happens around it rather than actively ride a start is astonishing. Adam Kirby is doing this well of late also.

Good luck for tomorrow.
 
Strange difference of opinion in this race Stick

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Anyone who fancies Abigails Angel can get 8s with Lad
 
Bluesky9 said:
I am with you with Precision Five Stick, and the price looks very reasonable at present.

Jim Crowley is in my opinion a very underated jockey who rides the all weather tracks very well (Kempton especially), I hope he will get on a couple of decent horses next season as he deserves to. Interestingly I was listening to one of the pundits taliking about getting an edge when betting. He stated that looking for a horse being ridden for the first time by someone you see as a top jockey could mean the horse would improve perhaps 3lbs for the race. Now this may be a fair point but the example he used was if you had a horse that had been ridden by Jim Crowley but was now being ridden by Richard Kingscote that would be worth noting as the horse may improve. I have nothing against R.Kingscote but that example to me is absurd.

What Jim Crowley does on the all weather is to acutely appreciate something that amazingly still gets missed by many jocks which is that how they ride the start is at least if not more important than the finish. The amount of Jocks who still pop a horse out and let it fall into what happens around it rather than actively ride a start is astonishing. Adam Kirby is doing this well of late also.

Good luck for tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Although I have no issue with Richard Kingscote, whoever gave that example is idiotic in my eyes. I think Jim Crowley has developed into a really top class operator in the last year or so and I think he is improving all the time.
 
Ron said:
Strange difference of opinion in this race Stick

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Anyone who fancies Abigails Angel can get 8s with Lad
Click to expand...

AA is fairly weak in the trades Ron and I can see others drifting out to Ladbrokes price. I will be amazed if this 7-1 about Push Me is still there in an hour!
 
Bluesky9 said:
I am with you with Precision Five Stick, and the price looks very reasonable at present.

Jim Crowley is in my opinion a very underated jockey who rides the all weather tracks very well (Kempton especially), I hope he will get on a couple of decent horses next season as he deserves to. Interestingly I was listening to one of the pundits taliking about getting an edge when betting. He stated that looking for a horse being ridden for the first time by someone you see as a top jockey could mean the horse would improve perhaps 3lbs for the race. Now this may be a fair point but the example he used was if you had a horse that had been ridden by Jim Crowley but was now being ridden by Richard Kingscote that would be worth noting as the horse may improve. I have nothing against R.Kingscote but that example to me is absurd.

What Jim Crowley does on the all weather is to acutely appreciate something that amazingly still gets missed by many jocks which is that how they ride the start is at least if not more important than the finish. The amount of Jocks who still pop a horse out and let it fall into what happens around it rather than actively ride a start is astonishing. Adam Kirby is doing this well of late also.

Good luck for tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Shocking example probably from someone who has an axe to grind. I like JC and think he rides the AW well. One of the pilots I like to have on board!
 
Hello all,

Two for me tomorrow and they are very similar in many ways -

1.50 Addiction - 11/2

Addiction is a mare who is lightly raced, having only had two starts over fences, but she has shown in the first of those runs that she has ability to be a chaser. She ran to within two lengths of Rydalis who I think is going to be a progressive novice chaser on her debut over the big obstacles before being found out at Newbury on heavy going. She was taken wide that day in search of better going and I don't think she enjoyed the testing ground and a return to a sounder surface should suit her more here. She is rated 105 and on her chase debut effort I think she is fairly handicapped, and she has form in the book over hurdles that also suggests that the mark isn't out of her sphere. She comes from an inform yard, and for me she is the horse in the field who is open to the most improvement and the one who has shown that the mark isn't necessarily going to stop her.

3.20 Sophonie @ 6/1

Sophonie is similar to the aforementioned bet in many ways, she is another relatively lightly raced mare who comes into the race with a mark of 105. She also started her season with a very encouraging run over fences before a shade disappointing second effort, and she is another from an inform yard. Sophonie to me looks like a mare who wants to race over the minimum trip and she showed enough in her hurdles career to suggest that she is more than able to win off a mark of around 105. She seemed a non stayer on seasonal reappearance (when running a great race before folding) and then she paid for trying to take on the well handicapped Anay Turge on soft ground at Chepstow. In this race she doesn't seem to have the same level of competition and I think she will benefit from the 60 days off to strengthen a little more for this race. As stated earlier, the Tom George yard is in fine form and I think a big run is on the cards.
 
ROTO / Stick
It was James Willoughby I think who made the comment - we all have our own opinions about Jockeys and I respect that but I could not for the life of me understand how he chose those two to use as an example for the point he was making. To be fair his point was he really rated Kingscote but I feel he chose the wrong Jockey to compare him with.
 
2.00 Ling - FONTERUTOLI @ 12/1

Ran a nice race last time out. A race that's throwing up a fair few winners, including yesterdays post.

5.00 Wolv - PRINCE OF BURMA @ 22/1

Interesting that the trainer drops him back to 6f for the first time in his career after showing superb early over 7f at Lingfield. He also has dropped back down to a 1lb lower mark than his last win off 81 in Jan 2012.


Good luck all!
 
5.00 Lingfield

Kakatosi 5/1

I've got to stick with Kakatosi who I put up the last day when successful on his first start for Mike Murphy as he appreciated the step back to 6f to score by a comfortable 0.5L success off a mark of 80 and although 5lb higher for that victory he is still well handicapped on his old form and I fancy him to be very difficult to beat again tomorrow. Formerly with Andrew Balding, Kakatosi was a very decent 3 year old who won 4 races on the spin including in a handicap off a mark of 94 and at his best he was a 104 rated animal. Prior to his last win on stable debut, Kakatosi had been largely out of sorts in the past year which has seen him fall from a mark of 95 at the start of the year to a career low mark of 80 which Murphy was able to exploit. On the 28th of December under tomorrow's pilot Eddie Ahern, Kakatosi chased a strong pace and hit the front with about 1f to go. He battled on game to the line to score by half a length but I always felt he was holding his rival as the front two drew over a length clear of the 3rd. The 2nd that day Clear Praise reopposses tomorrow and is 2lb better off at the weights but I certainly don't think that will be enough to reverse the placings. When taking into account his old form, he still looks on a very workable mark of 85 and now he has his confidence back with his first win in over 2 years I certainly think he looks primed to run a massive race in an attempt to make it 2-2 for his new yard. Eddie Ahern takes the ride again and although he has been done no favours by the draw in stall 10 I still think he'll be able to overcome the wide berth to sit just in behind what I feel is likely to be a strong pace. If all goes to plan, I'm confident of a massive showing from Kakatosi and off a mark of 85 I definitely think he can land his 2nd successive race.
 
No bets today but I am interested in how Dundee goes in the Huntingdon bumper. Beautifully bred and, although the yard has yet to win a bumper this season, they have been knocking on the door with 2 of their last 3 bumper runners placed. I think 8/1 looks a nice e/w price in a very open and winnable looking bumper.
 
Morning, team. Nothing for me today although, like Oddy, I will be watching the ‘lucky last’ at Huntingdon today with keen interest. A very strong bumper which is Listed class in all but name with some very nice individuals entered and many future winners should emerge from its confines. No wonder Mr Henderson has opted to look elsewhere to introduce Act Four!

Good luck if you do wager though.
 
Morning all! I’m having a small each way flutter on TINY TENOR in the 1.20pm at Huntingdon.

At 20/1 it looks worth an each-way as the trainer as a 58% strike rate at the course and 45% of his runners in the last two weeks have won or been placed <over analyser>
 
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