3rd January 2013 Daily Thread

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
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Maidenhead, Berkshire
HOLLO LADIES 3.00 Ayr 14-1 won a beginners chase when rated 137 two years ago, very lightly raced in the last two seasons he is obviously not as good as he was but off a paltry 118 he merits taking a chance with tomorrow. During his career he has been thought enough of to take on the Neptune at Cheltenham and the Mandarin at Liverpool, he wont be bumping into Peddlars Cross or Wishfull Thinking this time! I imagine his lack of outings has been due to injuries but it wouldnt be the first time Ferdy has worked a "miracle" now would it!?!
 
NAP - 3.00 - Leith Walk @ 10/1

Interesting race in which we could see a fair pace and that should suit those who are proven stayers, including Hollo Ladies and Leith Walk. I have gone for the latter as I like her form on heavy ground and I think she has been running interesting races in defeat this season, including when falling at the last at Kelso when last seen. She steps back up to a trip that she has won at, over a course she has won at and on ground she likes. She ticks more boxes than most and she is the second biggest at the prices. I also think the shorter price runners may take each other on early and that could set the race up perfectly for her to stay on past horses.
 
stick said:
HOLLO LADIES 3.00 Ayr 14-1 won off 137 two years ago, very lightly raced in the last two seasons he is obviously not as good as he was but off a paltry 118 he merits taking a chance with tomorrow. It wouldnt be the first time Ferdy has worked a "miracle" now would it!?!
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He won a Beginners Chase when rated 137 as opposed to winning in a handicap off that mark Stick.
 
Real Milan runs in the 1.00 Ayr tomorrow - think this may well be the horse Don McCain will be targetting the RSA with. Looked a very smart novice hurdler but was always made for chasing and he made a pleasing debut over fences at Carlisle in December over 2m5f. Tomorrow he steps up to 3m1f and he's one I'm really looking forward to watching tomorrow. Won't be a backable price though.

Edit: Real Milan 123 on Betfair for the RSA.
 
Oddy,

Interesting that you mention Real Milan who is 2/5 today and I think he is one to be against today on the heavy going and over the longer trip. The rationale being that McCain has mentioned a few times that he doesn't want bottomless ground and that it would be against him, and that he won a very modest three runner race on debut over fences. He is probably the best horse in the race, but I really like the chances of Nuts N Bolts (dreadful name for a horse) for the Russell yard.

He was run over an insufficient trip last time out, and Lucinda stated that she did that to get him sharpened up for a step up in trip, and therefore I expect a much better showing today. He is a scopey horse who I think will make a better chaser than when he was hurdling and he is the type to progress with racing. At 5/1 I think he is a fair price on ground he should enjoy and having a stamina rather than speed test here.
 
Good luck with that Nass - I guess McCain, like all trainers, is desperate to get a run into his horses, especially novices who need to gain experience.
 
The two quotes for those who want to read -

"He was the second-best horse behind Brindisi Breeze in the Grade 2 at Haydock but trying to go with the other horse cost him and he hated the bottomless ground. He has schooled well over fences and could be a very useful staying novice chaser - RacingPost 29/10/12"

"He was bumper winner for Anabel Murphy before coming here and was another to quickly make his mark. He looked a real chaser but we started him off over hurdles and he won his first two with ease at Uttoxeter and Haydock. On his third and most recent start for me he finished fourth to the Brindisi Breeze in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock. The ground was bottomless that day and he hated it, but had we not tried to make a race of it with Lucinda Russell’s progressive youngsterwe would certainly have been second. I haven’t schooled him over fences yet but he could be quite exciting in the novice staying division this season - Weekender 10/10/12"

where as Lucinda Russell-

" He’s a big horse who tried to push through the fences on his chase debut, although he jumps well at home. He’ll stay 3m and in running him over 2m in his first chase it will have hopefully taught him to be sharper. He definitely needs soft ground and should be able to win a couple of novice chases this season. 08/11/2012"
 
Going for the Canadian again today with 4 shorties from Thurles and one at Ayr at a nice price:

Thurles:

12.55 Sizing Kimberlite - well-bred daughter of Flemensfirth should be up to taking what looks a very ordinary maiden
1.25 Call The Police - looks very well in with Foildubh at the weights
2.25 War Correspondent - is slowly getting the hang of things
3.55 Briar Hill - expensive Wylie horse should be way too good for these

Ayr:

2.00 The Magic Bishop - has won over 3 miles on heavy off a mark of 112 and goes off 114 today with a 10lbs claimer. Trainer is as shrewd as they come and the yard is in fine form with 5 winners from their last 11 runners.

€1 Canadian just for interest
 
Would imagine the first 4 favourites at Thurles will go in today but the oe horse that is screaming value to me is Secrete Stream in the Ayr bumper. 18/1 is just far too big for a yard that does well with bumpers and at Ayr and that's in excellent form. 5 points each way.
 
Morning, team. I think its dire racing today and its one of those days when, in my opinion, you only bet if you are ‘in the know’ or ‘in need of a straightjacket’. I’ll leave everyone to decide who falls into which category!

Have just been on Betfair though to see if I could see a price on Kumbeshwar in the TBP market re the old Champion Chase but he’s not quoted which is a surprise. Will certainly be hitting the old refresh button re this possible wager a few times over the next week or so.

Good luck, as always, to all.
 
Bostonbob said:
the oe horse that is screaming value to me is Secrete Stream in the Ayr bumper. 18/1 is just far too big for a yard that does well with bumpers and at Ayr and that's in excellent form. 5 points each way.
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Dibdabs the one for money Bob - 20s into 8s this morning

I quite like Alflora offspring on soft / heavy so Fine Rightly catches my eye <ok>
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Morning, team. I think its dire racing today and its one of those days when, in my opinion, you only bet if you are &#8216;in the know&#8217; or &#8216;in need of a straightjacket&#8217;. I&#8217;ll leave everyone to decide who falls into which category!

Have just been on Betfair though to see if I could see a price on Kumbeshwar in the TBP market re the old Champion Chase but he&#8217;s not quoted which is a surprise. Will certainly be hitting the old refresh button re this possible wager a few times over the next week or so.

Good luck, as always, to all.
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Nurse!!!!!!!!
 
No need for the nurse quite yet, old boy. My logic is thus. Sprinter Sacre is, in my opinion, going to hack up hence why I&#8217;m taking about the Place market for Kumbeshwar. Everything that tries to go with, or take on, Mr Henderson&#8217;s Black Aeroplane (possibly Sizing Europe, Fleminstar, Santuaire, etc.) will be beaten off well before the 2nd last and tire badly from then on allowing anything that will be ridden solely for place money (as Kumbeshwar will be according to Alan King) to storm past them up the old hill. In a normal race I don&#8217;t think Kumbeshwar would have the class to figure but with SS in the field it ain&#8217;t a normal race.

Re the Crawford&#8217;s and bumper horses by the way. One from that yard that hacked up in a Wexford bumper back in October has joined Ems Lavelle. A 6YO gelding called Killyglass. Put him in your notebook people as in yesterdays &#8216;Weekender&#8217; the words &#8216;Killyglass&#8217; and &#8216;Cheltenham Bumper&#8217; where mentioned in the same sentance and his new trainer certainly seems to like him.

Ems Lavelle was the subject of yesterday&#8217;s &#8216;Stable Tour&#8217; and she was very positive about Stick&#8217;s old fave, Bougler. Apparently he jumped and travelled like a dream in both his runs this term prior to getting tired approaching the 2nd last and then fading. The lovely Ems said its all about getting him towards peak fitness at the moment and he needs a few runs to achieve this &#8211; Bougler could maybe oblige in a big handicap later in the campaign, especially as his mark is falling all the time, at a huge price.
 
Are horses really going to try and go with SS? Surely they will be held up like they all tried to do when racing Quevega at the festival last season?
 
Nass, I think the leading protagonists will yes. Should the likes of Sizing Europe, Flemingstar and Sanctuaire turn up then I don&#8217;t think connections will simply be looking for a runners-up berth. Given each horses illustrious past and the logic about never being afraid of one horse I would expect each to go out for a win. If they go elsewhere (which is also a possibility re the first 2 opponents mentioned) then that makes it easier for old boy Kumbeshwar.

Quevega was opposed largely by novices, exposed performers and handicappers. Sprinter Sacre is likely to face horses with Grade 1 victories to their name.
 
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