2nd January 2013 Daily Thread

[stick]

A P McCoy has a full book of rides at Ayr tomorrow and many with chances but the money is for his ride in the last on Overlady and its not difficult to see why. He is on a mark he can win off and has gone well fresh before. He has also flopped after a break too and I am banking on that being the case tomorrow. Its a competitive affair alright but the 12-1 for BLAZING DIVA is just too tempting. Dropped 4lb for her last run he now races off a mark 6lb lower than her last winning mark when she won by 15 lengths! Blinkers applied tomorrow which could sharpen her up but the thing that sways me is having Ryan Mania on board who she always seems to go well for. 91 is easily the lightest mark she has ever been allowed to race off and I see no reason why she shouldnt run a really big race off such a mark.

 

[Bostonbob]

I'm taking you on Stick because I think AP will win that race on Overlady and 5/1, to me, represents a really good each way bet. Overlady has run once at Ayr, winning well. The trainer is in excellent form getting a couple of winners from his last handful of runners. AP being booked is an obvious positive (although we don't know if Ryan Mania asked to get off her for Blazing Diva). This also represents by a distance the easiest race of Overlady's career as she drops into this class 5 from the loftier class 3 and 4 races she's been competing in. All looks set for a good showing.

 

[Reebok]

You make a compelling case Sticky. I'll check it out! I'm kind of mentoring my son-in-law who is keen on getting involved in the sport. He had a couple of winners Boxing Day and one on Saturday - no idea what his basis for selection was, as at dinner tonight, I had to explain handicapping and how weight is allocated. I'll give him your selection and tell him it was mine if it wins

 

[TopClass]

You make a compelling case Sticky. I'll check it out! I'm kind of mentoring my son-in-law who is keen on getting involved in the sport. He had a couple of winners Boxing Day and one on Saturday - no idea what his basis for selection was, as at dinner tonight, I had to explain handicapping and how weight is allocated. I'll give him your selection and tell him it was mine if it wins

Tell him to do himself a favour and not bother getting into it!

 

[Reebok]

No one told ME that 50 years ago

Having looked at that race I have to say I like the look of Too Cool To Fool but Stick is on a hot one so have done them both

 

[Bostonbob]

Reebok,tell him not to bother and just give him the odd tip from here every week or so.

 

[TopClass]

Only one tomorrow that I think looks to hold solid claims, and that is in the opener at Ayr.

BALTIMOAR was turned over at 4/11 in a bumper LTO but he had to give away a staggering 26lb to the winner that day (taking into account the claiming jockey) and will absolutely relish the step up to 2 and a half miles, being by Flemensfirth. It just looks a good opportunity to start over hurdles and I fancy McCain to have a decent day.

 

[stick]

I'm taking you on Stick because I think AP will win that race on Overlady and 5/1, to me, represents a really good each way bet. Overlady has run once at Ayr, winning well. The trainer is in excellent form getting a couple of winners from his last handful of runners. AP being booked is an obvious positive (although we don't know if Ryan Mania asked to get off her for Blazing Diva). This also represents by a distance the easiest race of Overlady's career as she drops into this class 5 from the loftier class 3 and 4 races she's been competing in. All looks set for a good showing.

OVERLADY at the opening 12-1 would have been very tempting!!!!

 

[Ardent1965]

An interesting race for the forum the 3.20 Ayr. On a no play day AppraiseForm rates the race - Blazing Diva 81, Overlady 79, Cilliseal 79.

I would fall in favour of Cilliseal with the 7lb claimer on board.

 

[NassauBoard]

Morning all,

Blogged about the 2.50 today in which I really like Kudu Country who has shown plenty in his two efforts this season and could get the race run to suit.

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

Morning, troops. Hope everyone had a good Christmas and enjoys a ‘Happy New Year’. Nothing for me today though and therefore am employing the ‘no bet’ banner to do its stuff. Good luck if you do wager today though.

How great, and I do mean great, was it people to see Long Run reclaim his crown on St Stephen’s Day?!? Totally, totally fantastic! Handled to perfection by the forum’s favourite trainer, Mr Henderson, and ridden superbly by the forum’s favourite Corinthian, Sam Waley-Cohen, he was a popular winner and one that I cheered to the rooftops. I see that the old handicapper has left Long Run at 172, after Kempton Park, but raised the runner-up, old boy Captain Chris, 7 pounds to a career high 169. Newbury’s AON is probobly Long Run’s next destination so maybe he will get the opportunity to possibly increase that perch next month.

 

[OddDog]

An interesting race for the forum the 3.20 Ayr. On a no play day AppraiseForm rates the race - Blazing Diva 81, Overlady 79, Cilliseal 79.

I would fall in favour of Cilliseal with the 7lb claimer on board.

Strong race that 3.20 - all those mentioned above have chances, plus you also have course specialist Sammy Spiderman (last 5 wins all at Ayr on soft or heavy) and right at the bottom Ferdy Murphy's horse Samson Collonges who has won his last 2 races off marks of 58 and 67 and is only 2 lbs wrong in the handicap today off a mark of 72. Not a race to get heavily involved in

I've plumped for a Canadian at Ayr today:

12.20 Green Flag - I like his form and experience over the McCain runner. It won't be easy giving 10lbs but Green Flag is sure to get the trip and I can see him outstaying his main rival.

12.50 Imjoeking - his form is working out really well with Morning Royalty having subsequently won in facile fashion, and I think he is a bit of value against Halo Moon.

1.20 Tap Night - should dance his way to victory (groan)

1.50 Boris The Blade - showed his well-being with a chase win over 3 miles on heavy at Newcastle at the beginning of December and his hurdles rating is only 2lbs higher. All his 5 career wins have come on heavy and he will be running on today when most of the others have cried enough. I'm sure they will apply the same tatctics as at Newcastle, where he made all, and he can take this from the front.

2.50 Desert Cry - the heavier the better for this one and he won well for me last time out so no reason to desert him today.

Best of Luck everyone

 

[Cyclonic]

With everyone looking at the 15:20 at Ayr, I thought I'd take a bit of a look. Anything AP rides has to be concidered, but I'm not one for selecting horses first up, especially over 3 miles in the mud. Big ask. Horses for courses is a decent guide. Beau Dandy goes well at Ayr and seem nice value at about 5-1. But I think there are two who are making their debut on the track who have a great shout. Cillseal comes here rock solid in condition and will relish the grind today. And 10-1 looks outstanding value. The other one I like in the race is the bottom one Samson Collonges who will carry a postage stamp. I don't think Ferdy Murphy will be making the tripfor nothing. The doubt might be the going. I know it's taking the easy way out, but if all three are backed, you just end up with a tidy profit.

 

[NassauBoard]

Anyone thinking about going to the Lanzarote Hurdle meeting at Kempton? Very tempted to pop across if anyone is interested in a days racing.

Hopefully getting down to Wincanton this weekend, because Chepstow is too expensive for me. It's ridiculous pricing by Chepstow.

 

[rainermariarilke]

Morning, all, and a Happy New Year.

I'd want to see the course market before I made this a selection, but can I suggest that we keep a close eye on SHALAMBAR in the 3.00 Lingfield ? He's down to what I regard as his can-win mark of 65, and the depth of opposition doesn't look great.

Interestingly, he's run nine times on the AW, and the first eight were all at Kempton. He was given an apprentice-ridden sighter at Lingfield last month (demurely described as 'always in rear' by ATR) and you might think that today has all the hallmarks of a Tony Carroll plot.

Don't be put off by the relatively unfamiliar 5-lb claiming jockey. George Downing is a good judge of pace, and rode imo a notably intelligent race when winning a valuable apprentice handicap at Ascot last autumn on Jack Dexter (the Jim Goldie in-crowd money was down that day, too).

As I say, it's too early to decide whether this is the day or not. It was a rag-priced 20-1 on the overnight tissue, but the tissue doesn't mean anything when TC gets one ready. If it gets backed and starts at less than, say, 6-1 it would deserve serious attention. Good luck.

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

Cor bimey I see that Darlan has been raised a whopping 15 pounds to 166 following his Christmas Hurdle romp. Only Rock on Ruby, Zarkander and Binocular now rated higher amongst the UK 2 mile hurdlers.

From the same race Dodging Bullets has gone up 6 pounds to 156. Can anyone recall a novice hurdler rated so highly this side of the Festival??? Ladbrokes make him a 14/1 shot for the Supreme Novices’ which seems very generous given the fact that he is already rated higher than what is normally required to win the race!

 

[OddDog]

Very interesting Sir Barney. Everything I've seen this season points to Hurricane Fly laughing at them. I'm prepared to believe he just wasn't right last season. Given he has already won twice this season it is already looking more positive (remember we didn't see him until the Irish Champion Hurdle last season). The Fly for me, all the way.

 

[NassauBoard]

Very interesting Sir Barney. Everything I've seen this season points to Hurricane Fly laughing at them. I'm prepared to believe he just wasn't right last season. Given he has already won twice this season it is already looking more positive (remember we didn't see him until the Irish Champion Hurdle last season). The Fly for me, all the way.

I agree that he was impressive last time, but wasn't he a shade lucky on reappearance? I am very tempted by Binocular, something is just telling me that he will be the one to beat.

 

[redcgull]

Good morning all... Just the Ayr card for the jumps today so...

12.20 - Green Flag, 5/6
12.50 - Our Joey, 4/1... bet
1.20 - Tap Night, 2/5
1.50 - Boris The Blade, 4/1... bet
2.20 - Nowurhurlin, 11/4... bet
2.50 - Desert Cry, 13/8
3.20 - Too Cool To Fool, 8/1

Singles n Doubles...

 

[OddDog]

I agree that he was impressive last time, but wasn't he a shade lucky on reappearance? I am very tempted by Binocular, something is just telling me that he will be the one to beat.

Difficult to say Nass - I was on Go Native (RIP) that day and, although Carberry had not really asked him for his effort before he fell, I somehow felt that Hurricane Fly was always going to have too much in the locker for him. Obviously we'll never know now, sadly. I do think HF is better with more races under his belt - his Champion Hurdle season was his busiest in terms of the number of races contested, and was clearly his best. If Mullins can keep him ticking over for the Irish Champion and then Cheltenham he will, IMHO, be the one to beat.

They're obviously trying something different with Binocular this time, bringing him back so late. But I seem to remember Henderson always referring to him as a "bull of a horse who is difficult to get race fit". Not sure how bringing him back into training later than usual will help alleviate this?