Monday 31st December Daily Thread

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
18,609
11,653
113
Maidenhead, Berkshire
I dont usually like 4 runner races as they can be so unpredictable. The 1.40 Uttoxeter tomorrow should be easy to solve according to the market. Landenstown Star hosed up on Boxing Day and reappears with only a 7lb penalty. Tomorrow however he faces WHERRIMON 9-2 who returns to a suitable trip having had his handicap mark reduced over shorter. I will not be at all surprised if he doesnt make a mockery of the handicappers leniency.

I put MONTYS REVENGE up at Taunton today but he missed his engagement, I know not why. The reasons for backing him today should apply tomorrow as is mark is 5lb less over hurdles than it is over fences. I just feel that this Uttoxeter race has a really trappy look to it. McCoy legged up on the bottom one is scary and support for Sangfroid means I will leave Montys Revenge alone.
 
Evening all! Fireworks at the ready to bring in 2013 <cracker>

I like Blue Deer (EW) 1.30 Lingfield Park Been going well of late and just failed to be placed of 7f at Lingfield last time out. 6f is an interesting alternative with the horse and if the gaps appear, can weave a passage into the frame around 15/2 atm. Looking at the horses form, I do wonder of Blue Deer is suited going right handed.

Good Luck!
 
Stick, what are your thoughts on Be My Light in the 2.10 tomorrow? I know you've said you like the Tweedledrum form and you often put up Longsden horses! I got on a little earlier but looks like there's been money already with bet365!
 
Ouijaboard said:
Stick, what are your thoughts on Be My Light in the 2.10 tomorrow? I know you've said you like the Tweedledrum form and you often put up Longsden horses! I got on a little earlier but looks like there's been money already with bet365!
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I think he has a belting chance mate, the only reason not to put him up was the NTD horse who I think could be pretty decent! Big disparity in the odds on my Be My Light earlier with Bet365 way shorter than anyone else.
 
Thanks Stick, I noticed that so got on William Hills and took 4/1!

Keep up the good work by the way, the INFO you put up is appreciated by novices like myself who read more than post.
 
Stick mate, you mention betfair a lot on this forum. I was thinking about setting up an account. Thoughts?? Can you also explain this starting comission rubbish? Don't want to get confused! <cheers> Mate
 
sparkymarky said:
Stick mate, you mention betfair a lot on this forum. I was thinking about setting up an account. Thoughts?? Can you also explain this starting comission rubbish? Don't want to get confused! <cheers> Mate
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Its good mark, brings a whole new thing to betting imo! I dont lay very much but if only do nothing bigger than 2/1 (if you wanna ask anything about laying horses ask the lay king Toppy!) but the odds are usually better value (min bet is 2 pound)

Sorry for butting in but thought I would say it is worth it!
 
woolcombe-folly007 said:
Its good mark, brings a whole new thing to betting imo! I dont lay very much but if only do nothing bigger than 2/1 (if you wanna ask anything about laying horses ask the lay king Toppy!) but the odds are usually better value (min bet is 2 pound)

Sorry for butting in but thought I would say it is worth it!
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No worries. Thanks a lot! I've been told about the starting commision, which I wanted make more enquiries about. <cheers> though
 
I am surprised that Uttox is not a victim of the weather, it's still very damp around here and the Trent and Dove are both very high which often results in abandonment. I have taken advice about Stick's Wherrimon although now third favouite out of just 4 runners. Also small e/w on Sparkeys Blue deer. It has been such a great week that still playing with 365 money, thanks to all the great advice on here. Cheers guys and a Happy New Year to all
 
niksboy said:
I am surprised that Uttox is not a victim of the weather, it's still very damp around here and the Trent and Dove are both very high which often results in abandonment. I have taken advice about Stick's Wherrimon although now third favouite out of just 4 runners. Also small e/w on Sparkeys Blue deer. It has been such a great week that still playing with 365 money, thanks to all the great advice on here. Cheers guys and a Happy New Year to all
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Uttox has an inspection tomorrow @ 7.30am Nik!
 
Anyone backing solwhit tomorrow after 708 days off! If back to anywher near his best he will take all the beating- Will not mind the ground but is it too much?!?

My money will be on BOG WARRIOR he made a mockery of a mark off 122 in a competitive Fairyhouse handicap when reverting timber at the beginning of the month and, a winner in six of his 10 career starts I fancy him to make it 7. he too will not mind the ground boggy!(sorry for the pun lol)
 
1.10 Uttoxeter

Light The World 5/1 each way

Drops down in class for the first time as he's tumbled in the rating to 100. Runs on heavy for the first time in England having previously been successful in France when it was very wet and has AP on board for the first time. I get the feeling tomorrow is what they've been waiting for.
 
I have one for tomorrow which I wanted to get up early as it will be best to take the first price best odds if possible.

Lingfield
2.30 Decent Fella 5-1
This horse is having only his second run for current connections since being claimed out of Dandy Nicholls yard. That he was put into a claimer for his first race for Nicholls after being bought out of Ian Baldings is mystifying but I feel current connections may have picked up a useful animal at this level on the all weather. His last run was clearly a fact finder and have a look race as he was run over a distance too far in a race too hot. It is the race before that is of interest as he was up against Brocklebank who he takes on once again today. In that race he got no run and was not given the best ride by Jimmy Fortune and it resulted in him running on well but from a position in which he had no chance of winning. At he's best on the turf this year he ran 5th in a handicap at Royal Ascot and I think he will win today if backed. The connections do not let their horses win unbacked and so I feel if they are having a go the horse will be good enough.
 
sparkymarky said:
No worries. Thanks a lot! I've been told about the starting commision, which I wanted make more enquiries about. <cheers> though
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The betting exchanges (Betfair, Betdaq etc.) do not act like traditional bookmakers but simply act as brookers to join back (betting on a horse to win) and lay (betting on a horse to lose) bets together that have been placed on their system. To provide this service the betting exchange will charge a commission to the winning party. This commission starts at 5% but will be reduced for frequent / high stakes punters.

For example, if you place a £10 back bet on a horse at 5.2 (which equates to 4.2-1) on betfair, then your profit if the horse wins is £42 - commission of 5% (£2.10) = £39.90. Therefore, the betfair price is only better if the horse was available at less than 4-1 at your traditional bookmakers.

Generally, you will get slightly better value on the betting exchanges (but this is worth checking, particularly if you are on the favourite), but you will often get excellent value if you are betting on outsiders.

Hope this was of some value.
 
Guys and Girls.. just to wish you all a very happy new year to you and your families.

All the best folks!
 
Sparky, drop me a PM mate and I will explain the exchanges to you.


Will be in a couple of days though as NYE parties etc will somewhat delay me!
 
newapproach said:
The betting exchanges (Betfair, Betdaq etc.) do not act like traditional bookmakers but simply act as brookers to join back (betting on a horse to win) and lay (betting on a horse to lose) bets together that have been placed on their system. To provide this service the betting exchange will charge a commission to the winning party. This commission starts at 5% but will be reduced for frequent / high stakes punters.

For example, if you place a £10 back bet on a horse at 5.2 (which equates to 4.2-1) on betfair, then your profit if the horse wins is £42 - commission of 5% (£2.10) = £39.90. Therefore, the betfair price is only better if the horse was available at less than 4-1 at your traditional bookmakers.

Generally, you will get slightly better value on the betting exchanges (but this is worth checking, particularly if you are on the favourite), but you will often get excellent value if you are betting on outsiders.

Hope this was of some value.
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Thats pretty much spot on. I often forget there is a comission to pay but to be honest I am only ever using it in large competitive handicaps when I fancy an outsider or novice and bumper races when I fancy a "dark horse". In these instances you can usually find people layng 50-1 to 80-1 about a horse you know is going to be 20-1 to 25-1 with the high street layers.
I never lay horses. I know some will say I am a mug as I often know more about horses that wont win than those that will but I am old school and find there is something immoral about it.
I also never back in running as I am next to useless at spotting the winner three from home!
 
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