Heavy going at Ascot is very unusual and its going to make this race a real leveller. I have to say that I am really keen on BALDER SUCCES as I think he is class and is proven on heavy going. At 6-1 though you have to say that he rates pretty poor value. so my value hunt took me elsewhere and the one I find myself plumping for is DAN BREEN. I have managed to get a few quid on at 45-1 on Betfair this evening. His last two runs have been most encouraging. Here going down narrowly to Petit Robin in similar conditions and more recently when beaten by the very well handicapped Dark Lover at Cheltenham. He was headed approaching the last at Cheltenham and would not have won but I think he would have been within 3-4 lengths of Dark Lover had he not stumbled after the last nearly unseating his young rider. The lad did well to stay on that day and did really well to get him going again to stay on for third. I have no worries about his ability as a ten pound claimer and he is the pilot again on Saturday. The Ascot track will suit him much better than Cheltenham and the slightly shorter trip will also help his cause. There is always the chance that there is another well handicapped horse in the field but other than Lyvius and the aforementioned Balder Succes they seem to be a fairly exposed albeit talented bunch. On the official ratings I think Dan Breen has a heck of a chance. He is some way below his best chase mark and is in form. Best price with the bookies is 25-1 but fancier odds are available with the spread firms. I am happy with my45-1 and think I can expect to at least get a very good run for my money! All thoughts welcome!
Interesting race, you have Balder Success who fell in the Triumph against Ranjaan who was going to run in the Triumph before injury curtailed his season. One is giving the other 6lbs in the handicap, and I wouldn't be surprised to see both run well, interestingly Nicholls puts the tongue tie on Ranjaan for the first time, perhaps to help his breathing in the heavy conditions, and I think that of the two it is Balder Success who should enjoy the conditions more. However the one that might be under the radar is Urbain De Sivola, who being a french bred should love the conditions and he did beat Ranjaan convincingly in their juvenile hurdling season. He will relish conditions and looks to have a handy racing weight (3lb less than Ranjaan) for the race. Not backed him yet.
Hi Nass I'm glad you mention Urbain De Sivola as this is a horse i was looking at closely last night. I'm not sure what to make of his form in France (i'm certainly no expert on French racing) but it looks like he's been up against some good horses in Esmondo and Usual Suspects. I'm not sure how he will cope with the Heavy going as the only time he has raced on it he was well beaten but that was over 19f. I think he was quietly fancied for the Triumph and according to Sporting Life there were a couple of hefty bets on him that day (this is something i'm very interested in and have been meaning to start a thread about) and i'll have to watch the race again but i think he was just coming into the race before making a blunder 2 out! He's fit from his recent runs in France and as you state has a nice victory over Ranjaan to his name who is much shorter in the betting, has more weight and lacks a run this season. I'd really like to know some more peoples thoughts on this one as at current prices he's the one i'm very interested in.
My 3 e/w picks against the field will be Olofi, Bothy and Livius - all 3 go on the ground and should be there or thereabouts.
Stick, good luck with the bet. Dan Breen certainly ran well last time- much better than the finishing distance indicates. Trouble is The Ladbroke is probably the most competitive race so far this year.
You are absolutely right Tam and I am probably tilting at windmills with him. I do just think I will get a decent run for my money. I see BALDER SUCCES is available at 13/2 this evening and I shall be having some of that!
I've backed Rigidity @ 40's and will dabble on the place market nearer the time. As i pointed on the DT he's only 1lb higher than when second in this race last year and the heavier the better as far as he's concerned.
You make a compelling case for Dan Breen stick but I fancy Double Ross for this. Like the posts above I looked long and hard at Rigidity as well.
Cheers Hawkeye, yep nice return today on that one. Shame I put one of the others in the League Comp though.
