A couple of folks have alluded to this in the last week but as I started it I thought I may as well carry it on. We are in a good place, 41 points from 20 games and bang on track for auto promotion, but in the last 10 games we failed, scoring only 19 points. I was rather hoping we would score over 20, to see us on about 43 or 44, and the reason I hoped that is now staring us in the face. The next group of 10 games is without doubt the hardest group of the season. Blackburn - Away. I don't think we have as much to fear as I thought at the beginning of the season but still we need to get at least a point here to keep our unbeaten run going (Currently 5 games) Peterborough - Home. With respect to Minxy I think we will be too strong for them, and after the potential banana skin of DJ's return we should close this one out early taking home wins to 11 and (See above) hopefully unbeaten to 7 Leicester - Away. I think we need to take at least 1 point from this game as they are so close to us. Not sure about a win but a draw is do-able I believe. Crystal Palace - Home. This is a must win 6 pointer if ever there was one. Take 3 from this and 4 from the 2 games with Leicester and it could define the table come May, and at least put distance between us. Milwall - Home. This is a different Millwall to the one we played earlier in the season. This more than any other could be where our 100% record could go. I hope not but a point would be good. Birmingham - Away. I think we will have enough to take them, but 1 point needed at least. Ipswich - Home. home win Blackpool - Away. This team should withstand the tangerines, a point will do. Leicester - Home. This is what I meant about 4 from 2 earlier. Depending on result up to then again a must win 6 pointer that could define the season. Twice in 5 weeks, it must be 4 points for us. Leeds - Away. Beating Colin in his own place could be the icing on the cake that sees us past the 60 point mark or it could be a chance to recover from a bad 9 games. If we have 60+ points on 2 Feb I honestly believe we will get auto promotion, probably as Champions, but the 7 points from the Palace and Leicester games are critical both for the points and team self-believe (Ours and theirs) I will be delighted if we get 20. What do others think??
Playing you at home is massive for us. With us going into a fairly difficult run of games of Christmas and new year we must get 3 points at ours. Like you've said, 4 points to another team's 1 would be a mini-disaster for either side. I'm confident we can take 4 from you, just as you are with us. May the best team win them!
"What do others think??" Well, I think we've got Blackpool away Snaggs. Otherwise, this does look to be a very difficult run against some good form sides. If we do get "20 from 30", we'll have done OK. I'd suggest going into the New Year still heading the table will be an achievement, but it's down to us at home against Palace and Millwall - the other games before then should take care of themselves, and that includes the one at Leicester where a point will do.
I said on another thread, if we draw with the teams just below us it maintains our relative positions. Draws against Palace and two against Leicester and I'd be happy, anything else is a bonus. It may see the pack close on us, but won't do any lasting damage. 20 points from the next 10 games will be a challenge, but 15 points with three of those from the games above will see us in the top 2 come 2nd Feb in my view.
I wouldn't rule out the Tractor Boys coming to spoilt an unbeaten home run. They seem to be the bogey side at home over the last few seasons.
at home we are strong, away, i cant see us picking up say 3-4 wins out of 5. blackburn have fallen back a bit since kean left, and peterborough arent playing well. 6 points is on paper possible, but this is the championship and i doubt we will. we need to keep winning at home and get into a strong a position as possible in january with strengthening now a must, i dont think we can go a whole season being one or two wins away from the chasing pack and must have a decent cushion.
Two full backs as a minimum with another striker a bonus. I still think we've got a better squad than the chasing pack with the possible exception of Leicester. Will the others be able to strengthen as well or will they have to make do with what they've got? If they can't, we may see them go the way we've gone in previous seasons. It's why I think 15 points with the 3 key draws may be anough from the next 10 games.
I don't think 41 from 20 is a fail. Yes, we fell 1 point behind in the second 10 but had an extra 2 in the bag from the first 10. Even if we only got 19 from the next batch (which will be a major achievement with the better quality opposition to come) that would still leave us on 60 from 30 and well placed for the run in. If the same average of 2 points per game was attained from the final 16 we would be on 92 and promoted automatically. End of!!!!
agree, a few weeks back i thought we'd be ok without new players, but we've seen 2-3 injuries and you're down to ralls and nugent, so for me a centre back, left back and striker is what we should aim for. as you say if teams in our bracket dont strengthen we could lose an edge and leave the door open for another team to take up the mantle of being top. malky has shown he has a good eye for a player so i trust him totally to find the players we need to get over the line.
5 Games at home, can you see any of them take our record of us ? Not sure but i'll put 13 points 5 Away going to be tough i'll go for 7 points gives 20 but I'll be happy with 17+
We've currently earned the right to only have to draw with Leicester and or Palace. Obviously both will have the chance to close the gap whilst we're drawing with the other though. I think Friday is a massive game, we're playing first so a win puts real pressure on the rest over the weekend, it won't be easy but Blackburn aren't at their best and we've got a fully recharged noone to unleash on them! A good run in our next 5 could absolutely define the season. Both Bellers and whits are due a goal or 2.
Won't turn down 20 points from somewhere but if we DO fall below but take something out of Leicester and CP, then I reckon we will still be on for a good run-in. Don't forgte if we have a particularly hard 10 games this run, then next runs should be a little easier....not that anything is easy in this league. Also, if we apply the '20 from 10' rule to all other teams as well, then basically only CP have achieved this. I say we just plug away and get what we can from every game.
