Monday 3rd December Daily Thread

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R

ROTO

Well-Known Member
Jun 20, 2011
2,397
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48
Dublin, Ireland
4.20 Kempton Love Pegasus 16/1. Write up on the way

In the opener at Wolves Chookie Hamilton should take an awful lot of beating but at 2s he's a little too short for me at present. I'll do write up if he becomes a backable price
 
Evening ROTO

4.20 Kemp - ZAHEEB @ 7/1(maybe bigger)

2lb lower than last win over C&D

5.50 Kemp - LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND @ 6/1

6lb lower than last win over C&D. I expect this will start a fair bit shorter.


Good luck all!
 
some at plumpton from me before sleep, no bets, just ew picks:

1:10 kuilsriver 12/1 (although ballylifen shortened from 10s to 14/1, not sure i'll swap)

1:40 twin bud 6/1

2:10 delgany gunner 5/1

2:40 little roxy 6/1 shortening

3:10 ballinhassig 13/2

some small fields again so after today i'm not so confident. i'm thinking the ground isn't that important if a horse will outclass the others anyway, but took it into account with those above.

at some point i should put down picks ignoring the odds since it doesn't do me favours avoiding favourites because of their odds.

g'luck all as ever :biggrin:
 
4.20 Kempton

Love Pegasus 16/1

This very lightly raced 6 year old is probably the most fascinating contender of the day on his stable debut for Paddy Butler on the back of a 551 day absence and if retaining some of the ability he showed for Mark Johnston as a 3 year old then he could prove very well handicapped off a mark of 60. This impeccably bred son of the Kentucky Derby Winner Fusaichi Pegasus and Triple Grade 1 winning mare Take Charge Lady looked a very promising horse in his first four starts for Mark Johnston, winning twice (both over today's C+D)with the latter victory a very impressive 3L success (7L clear of 3rd) off a mark of 80 back in June 2009 and he looked a very exciting prospect and was touted as a horse who could compete in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot. He had one final start when badly disappointing on turf under a penalty 8 days after his handicap success and was subsequently sold for 75,000 Guineas to Irish trainer Niall O'Callaghan thereafter. Starting off his career for O'Callaghan rated 90, Love Pegasus did not live up to his lofty reputation in the slightest for one reason or another in his 7 starts (4 at Dundalk) for the County Cork based trainer with the best effort he could muster a 5L beaten 9th at Dundalk off mark of 80 in October 2010. Love Pegasus's first 6 starts for his O'Callaghan in the space of 11 months saw him compete off marks ranging from 78 to 90 with his final start a very disappointing performance coming on the back of an 8 month break at Tipperary off a mark of 64 when finishing last of 14.

Its hard to understand why Love Pegasus didn't perform for his trainer O'Callaghan who has had a very hard time of things coming back from being a leading trainer in the US to only saddling 2 winners from 52 runs (same horse) since taking up his license. Its clear that O'Callaghan has a lot of issues getting to grips with training in Ireland and perhaps he never got to the bottom of Love Pegasus and he has subsequently been sold to trainer Paddy Butler. This US bred horse comes here on the back of a 551 day absence and its clearly a mystery to how much ability he retains or how fit he will be on the back of his hefty absence but he makes his stable debut in a Class 6 handicap off a mark of 60 and I think there are definitely some clues to think that the yard are expecting a big performance. Firstly, excellent apprentice Mick Murphy is booked for his first start for the stable and takes off an invaluable 5lb off this top weight which should help an awful lot. In addition, he sports first time cheekpieces which should help focus him (he also has a high head carriage) and he has seen some decent market support already as he is returned to a track where has a perfect 2-2 record over C+D. Trainer Paddy Butler hasn't had a winner in his 27 runners since May but one of his horses Querido only got beaten 3/4L in the last couple of weeks so his horses aren't running horribly. From a decent draw in stall 6, I hope Mick Murphy sits him just off the rail as that seemed to work very well for him when with Johnston. With only 12 races to date, if Paddy Butler has rejuvenated Love Pegasus he ought to be very competitive off an effective mark of 55 when taking Murphy's claim into account and if fully wound up I think he could run a very big race at a nice price.
 
A little first and last race double at Plumpton for me today.
DAWN TWISTER 3-1 12.40 is improving with each run over hurdles. I know the yard like this one a lot and he can beat the Longsdon hotpot. A nice race to start the card and a decent little bumper at the end my money is on MASSINI LOTTO 7-2 3.40 who can make his point to point experience pay. The Pipe/McCoy combination is eyecatching on the favourite but it doesnt have a standout bumper pedigree. Massini Lotto won a soft ground point in Ireland and has arguably a nicer pedigree.
 
Morning, all. Nothing for me today and therefore the ‘no bet’ banner is fluttering in the breeze as we speak. The 1.10 at Plumpers will though be of some interest because if the winner of that heat goes onto win at the Festival connections will win a bonus of some £60,000.

Meanwhile, I see the Arkle market has been somewhat livened up by Mr Nicholls purchasing the 4YO ***o from France. Bet365 go 16/1 for a horse the Champion trainer sounds very positive about.
 
5.50 Speak The Truth - 11/1 EW

Speak The Truth is a course and distance winning sprinter who gets into this handicap off bottom weight, carrying 9 stone as a result. The six year old gelding is dangerously weighted on his best form, and I think he had a perfectly fine attempt last time out at Lingfield, when he never managed to land a blow on a falsely run race, in which his early position ultimately cost him his chance. He drops down 3lbs for that run, and that makes him one who could pop up at a fair price here.

He is drawn well in stall 2 and if he is able to sit up with the pace, he should be able to run into at least a place, and I think he could easily win a handicap off this mark from such a nice draw. It is also a positive for me that they have an accomplished AW jockey on and I think there should be no excuses for not running well. As such he is an EW bet today.
 
Hello lads.

Decent little card at Plumpton but nothing really takes my eye so powder remaining dry.

Still shocked at the news my favourite cricketer retired a few hours ago...the great Ricky Ponting.

GL anyone having a punt.
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Morning, all. Nothing for me today and therefore the ‘no bet’ banner is fluttering in the breeze as we speak. The 1.10 at Plumpers will though be of some interest because if the winner of that heat goes onto win at the Festival connections will win a bonus of some £60,000.
Click to expand...

Alan King likes to target that race Sir Barney - Voy Por Ustedes did the double for him a few years back and Invictus took this last year before being robbed of the chance of the double by injury. No runner from Barbury Castle this year unfortunately.
 
Good afty all... Not had much time to look at the cards today, and racing is under way soon... So its a quick bite to eat, a quick scan of the cards and lets see if we can find owt...

The forums thrown a few into the mix so looks like we may have a winner or two today... Fingers crossed...<ok>
 
stick said:
A little first and last race double at Plumpton for me today.
DAWN TWISTER 3-1 12.40 is improving with each run over hurdles. I know the yard like this one a lot and he can beat the Longsdon hotpot. A nice race to start the card and a decent little bumper at the end my money is on MASSINI LOTTO 7-2 3.40 who can make his point to point experience pay. The Pipe/McCoy combination is eyecatching on the favourite but it doesnt have a standout bumper pedigree. Massini Lotto won a soft ground point in Ireland and has arguably a nicer pedigree.
Click to expand...

Stick, massini lotto now as short as 11/8 in some places....so the distance travelled and ground seems to have caught the eye of few people.....STICKWISE could strike again <ok>
 
1.55 Wolves

Just Breathe 20/1

20/1 looks very big about Olivia Maylam's unexposed 3 year old who I think showed some very promising form in her first two starts for Chris Down and Jane Chapple-Hyam and who I think will come on an awful lot for her reappearance on the back of a 10 month break and who I think will love the drop back to 5f for the first time and looks on a good mark of 64. Just Breathe made her debut for Chris Down last November as a 2 year old when successful on debut in a seller when showing a likeable attitude to score by a neck over 6f at Wolves Sitting just off the pace in 3rd, Just Breathe showed a nice cruising speed before quickening and gamely repelling the persistent challenge of Adranian to score by a neck (front two 7L clear) from Adranian in 2nd. It was a very nice performance on debut despite the grade as he received 10lb for her more experienced rival in 2nd (I'm guessing some of this was a filly's allowance) and the form of that race doesn't look too bad at all. The 2nd Adranian went on to win a claimer on his next start before landing a Claimer on his next start and he won a handicap off a mark of 75 a couple of months later when switched to David Griffiths.

As a result of that impressive peformance, she was picked up by Jane Chapple-Hyam and she made a fine start for that stable when running an excellent 2nd on handicap debut off a mark of 61. A couple of months after her debut success and on her 3 year old debut in January, Just Breathe ran a lovely 2nd at Kempton over 6f in a race that has worked out very nicely. Under Luke Morris, Just Breathe sat just off the pace as she travelled very powerfully into the home straight before quickening up slightly as she was passed on the inside by the eventual winner as she went down by 1.75L to an impressive winner. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Gabrial's Bounty scoring on his next start off an 8lb higher mark whilst he has also won off a 13lb higher mark subsequently and run what has turned out to be the extremely well handicapped Jack Dexter to a neck on what was that rivals handicap debut off a 19lb higher mark. In addition, the 3rd Illustrious Lad got beaten a head on his next start off the same mark whilst the 4th Berlusca won off the same mark 2 starts later off the same mark as well. It was a lovely performance on what was just this filly's 2nd career start and she certainly seemed like she wouldn't be too far away from winning.

I don't know the circumstances but Just Breathe was either bought or sold out of Jane Chapple-Hyam's yard and joined current trainer Olivia Maylam where she made her stable debut off a 4lb higher mark of 65 earlier this month on the back of a 10 month break and although she didn't exactly look like a winner in waiting she definitely looked in need of the run and I think she will strip a lot fitter for the run as a result. She's been dropped 1lb to a mark of 64 and based on her first two starts and given that she is unexposed I very much think this mark is within her ability. In addition, I think the drop back to the minimum trip could prove the making of her as she demonstrated on her first two starts that she had a very nice cruising speed and I think she'll relish the shorter trip as opposed to merely handling it. I also think its very interesting that on Maylam's website she has commented that Just Breathe could be the stable's star which certainly buoy's my optimism about her chances. She should have hopefully strengthened up over the summer and I certainly think there is more to come from this filly. Although the draw in stall 9 isn't ideal, she seems to break quickly from the stall and I don't think it should prove much of a hindrance. Moreover, I think that Wolves will suit those close to the pace today given the kickback has seemed very bad as of late and thats an added bonus if she can be prominent from her wide draw. Kirsty Milczarek takes the ride and with Maylam not in the worst of form as of late I'm confident of a big showing from this unexposed 3 year old which should hopefully result in a 2nd career victory in 4 starts and a first for the stable.
 
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