Paddy Power Gold Cup

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azertyuiop7

New Member
Nov 11, 2012
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Just wondered what people's thoughts were on the big race next Saturday?

The race seems to be at the mercy of Grands Crus but I was at Aintree the other week when For Non Stop destroyed the field. I was seriously impressed and would have to say he looked very impressive and would definitely one to be on the right side of for this race too.

Al Ferof is the other one for me. I think he had a tough season and the Victor Chandler Chase took a lot out of him considering he was a novice. Think back from a break he can have a lot to offer this season.

I've written a preview of the race on my blog so feel free to take a look:

http://horsesandteeth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/paddy-power-gold-cup-preview.html

Thanks
 
I like trying to find a well weighted, unexposed potential improver, therefore the horse that interests me having shown glimpses of smart chase form last year, is WALKON.

He was seriously impressive when beating Zaynar by 6 lengths hard held, but then seemed to lack a bit of pace and fluency later on.


I think the Paddy Power might prove an ideal distance and with a brilliant record fresh, the 9/1 on the exchanges is my idea of a play in this race.

Al Ferof was talked of as a King George horse by Ruby Walsh after his Victor Chandler third so clearly if he runs to best form he has a chance. My concern is that this is either a genius plan to nick the PP Gold Cup or that Nicholls has looked around and found potentially better King George contenders. If it is the latter, I'd be concerner of a slightly regressive profile.

That said, his Cheltenham form is excellent and if you rewatch the Arkle, he was going very well before a bad mistake and potentially had Cue Card covered, though you could debate that until the end of time!

Grands Crus makes the race very interesting but not sure he is value at all and I doubt stamina is his issue- I suspect he struggles when races really quicken and that could easily be an issue here, or over 3m elsewhere, so I dont buy into the shorter trip helping.
 
Al Ferof for me, he ended last season in disappointing form, but had shown some real talent earlier in the season, including when beating For Non Stop at Sandown in a good finish. He showed that day that he has the stamina for a race like the Paddy Power, and the fact Nicholls has mooted the King George as a target shows how highly he is thought of. He runs off a mark that looks fair (gets 3lbs from For Non Stop) whilst not looking overly generous (still giving Grands Crus weight), and I think he will be very competitive here.

He made a dreadful mistake in the Arkle and that trip seemed too sharp for him anyway, and then he probably bounced at Aintree (like so many do) and I find it reassuring that Nicholls has come out and said that he is due to take his chance.

I have backed him, so expect him to be a non runner!
 
TopClass said:
I like trying to find a well weighted, unexposed potential improver
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If she runs I am quite sweet on the chances of Nadiya De La Vega at a nice price. Nicky Henderson's mare won a class 2 Handicap over C&D on October 20th off a mark of 137 and is now rated 145, meaning she is currently allotted 10-8. She looks like the sort of progressive 2nd season type who usually goes close in this race and, providing the ground is no worse than Gd-Soft (which I am hopeful of, given current conditions and the forecast) I would be hopeful of a good showing.
 
I think that the market has it right in that Grand Crus does look to have a real chance. But 5/2? Come on. I would much rather be on Hunt Ball at 6s who I think is well in on all form in the book and didn't quite stay at Aintree. I honestly believe 157 is not beyond him. One that catches my eye at a price is Notus De La Tour, also for Pipe, at 20s who carries 10-7. A little bit of improvement over the summer and I think this one could be very well in. Also have to agree with Nass that Al Ferof has some good form in the book, none better than when running a close 3rd to subsequent Champion Chase winner Finian's Rainbow and Ascot specialist Somersby.
 
When you walk through a storm

hold your head up high

And don't be afraid of the dark.

At the end of a storm is a golden sky

And the sweet silver song of a lark.

Walk on through the wind,

Walk on through the rain,

Tho' your dreams be tossed and blown.

Walk on, walk on with hope in your heart

And you'll never walk alone,

You'll never, ever walk alone.

Walk on, walk on with hope in your heart

And you'll never walk alone,

You'll never, ever walk alone.
 
George <laugh> never mate but I tell you what I am far from impressed and it was like watching Stoke play ffs and Cisse has no positional clue at all he chases after the same ball as Ba every time <doh> not looking forward to going on Saturday and missing WALKON win but I will be there as always <ok>
 
Aye mate Walkon looks well treated off that mark. I'm not a fan but I don't quite know how he's got that mark. Hope we can put in a better performance with no European game and also, though saw the other day you don't like him, Tiote back who I think is key to allowing Cabaye to flourish. Agree about Cisse I don't know what has happened to him.
 
Really like his chances on Saturday. Yes I hope so. Have never rated Tiote tbh he messes around with the ball constantly and often loses it. Only good for putting his foot in. I hope he does well at the weekend though. Didn't think it could get worse than the first half yesterday and then Shola comes on <doh>
 
I can't be having Grands Crus at the price.
For Non Stop would have to be a stone better than the Jewson to give 7 lb to Champion Court who had his measure when second to Sir Des Champs- but C.Court may not run.
Al Ferof isn't a natural jumper for me.
Forpadydeplasterer has his lowest chasing mark ever on Saturday and ran decent when second to Sizing Europe.
Micheal Flips has a chance off 10st 8lbs.
EW Value...Fordadydeplasterer @ 50/1 Betfair.
 
Bostonbob said:
I can only see 7.2 on betfair for Forpadydeplasterer to place Tamerlo. Where are you getting 50/1 as an each way option?

Best price with traditional bookies is 33/1
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Hi, Bob, didn't check the place price, to be honest. I just saw the 50/1 win. I'll have a look at the place only nearer the time- Betfair are usually pathetically low on many place prices until nearer the race.
 
gg.com has just sent me an email alert this afternoon to say Flemenster is running at Navan on the 11th. I'd better get some money on it then! <doh>
 
Couldn't have Grands Crus at the current prices, and although I was a big admirer of Walkon when he was hurdling, I can't say he fills me with confidence from what I've seen over the larger obstacles.

Think Nadiya De La Vega could be in with a chance, and has proved she can win at the track, and along with Michael Flips provides the value in the race. Looking forward to it though, should be an interesting contest.
 
The more I look at this, the more I think everything points to the favourite. Everything but the price, that is. Is he value at 5/2? No he isn't. Is he the most likely winner? I think he is, especially given his record in November.
 
rainbowview said:
George <laugh> never mate but I tell you what I am far from impressed and it was like watching Stoke play ffs and Cisse has no positional clue at all he chases after the same ball as Ba every time <doh> not looking forward to going on Saturday and missing WALKON win but I will be there as always <ok>
Click to expand...

OI!!!!!!!!!
 
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