Now that the European flat season is virtually over and 'twenty' is a nice round number it is time for my annual onslaught at the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I am looking at the first 20 or so in the ante-post lists to 'knock out' a few (at the moment): Grands Crus - other targets? First Lieutenant - Ryanair? - so many Gigginstown Stud long distance chasers. Hunt Ball - cannot see it. Long Run ?????? Have any of my fellow posters got any early views on the AP market; value/blots? Now only a few days until I am off to Paris for Auteuil.
Good morning, Kenny! Grands Crus performance in the RSA was a bit perplexing. Any horse that stays three miles over hurdles round Cheltenham just has to stay the distance over fences. In the RSA race, he actually seemed to run out of stamina, but why? He jumped superbly but it was noticeable that Tom Scudamore kept "taking a pull" as Grands Crus tried to jump to the front. Just maybe that was the reason he'd nothing left at the end. Perhaps Scudamore would have done better if he had let the horse jump to the front and not "disappoint him." I remember backing one of Neville Crump's horses years ago (in the Massey Ferguson, I think) . He was absolutely cantering coming round the last bend, but his jockey kept taking a pull and wouldn't give him his head. He didn't do so until the run in- and he got beat. So maybe the tactics need to change, and it may be premature to write off Grands Crus yet as a contender for top honours.
I have been a fan of Grands Crus, specifically since his performance on 'Triala Day' at Cheltenham in January 2011. My comment was solely based on the 'value' of an AP bet when he is just about favourite for the Ryanair and is quoted in the Champion Chase; One Man??? I would definitely consider a small AP bet if David Pipe confirmed the Gold Cup as the eventual or probable target; one 'bad' chase effort would not put me off as he has a good Cheltenham record. One that interests me at 50/1 is Quito De La Roque!
If you're looking for a bit of early value, I think 25/1 about Last Instalment for the Gold Cup is a nice price. I rate him as highly, if not higher than, Sir Des Champs and, providing he's over his injury, I think he could be a major player in the staying chasers division. The prices about SDC, Flemenstar, First Lieutenant make no appeal at this stage. 50/1 Burton Port also looks like a bit of value.
I have had a small bet on Captain Chris. Last session the horse never seemed quite right and i think the yard made the wrong choice in going for the ryanair.
Newapproach, Captain Chris is a horse I'm particularly watching. He didn't seem right last year- as you say- and he finished like a lion in the Ryanair- when the race was over. The trouble is...what's his best trip? Maybe his jumping is letting him down and, on his novice form, the Ryanair should have been right up his street. So maybe it's a false conclusion that he needs further, but I don't blame you having an ante-post bet on him for the Gold Cup- I notice he's top priced 33/1 with the bookies but 70/1 with Betfair (20/1 and 60/1 Betfair for the Ryanair). I believe Hobbs is targeting both Menorah and Captain Chris towards the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on Nov. 6th. Best of luck with him.
I posted on here before the festival that Grand Crus is a doubtful stayer over trips in excess of 3m. Three attempts and three failures. I see him as being a flat park course three miler and something like the KG would be ideal. He doesn't even figure in my CGC analysis and the Ryan Air is a more legitimate target if he doesn't revert back to timber.
I haven't noticed how Grand Crus has been ridden so I am not qualified to comment but, if he's been full of running and the jockey has been taking a pull, could it be that he doesn't like to be in front too long and has to be left as late as possible? To keep taking a pull would take something out of the horse so maybe he needs a stronger run race. If he doesn't truly stay 3miles then dropping him a couple of furlongs or so might well get him the pace he needs so that he can be left late without the need for taking a pull. As I say, I've never really watched him so I'm just posing questions.
Cheers Tamerlo, i agree that both jumping and stamina could be an issue with Captain Chris, but he made a big impression on me in winning the 2011 arkle with both his jumping and class, beating more obviously speedy types. Last session he looked to have the 2011 Haldon gold cup at his mercy when he unseated richard johnson. After that I believe he then had a setback and did not reappear until the king george. He didn't exactly impress in that race and appeared never to be travelling, although he held on for third. Some may believe that this is evidence that he won't stay over the gold cup trip, but i am prepared to believe that he hadn't fully got over the setback (nor did he for the remainder of the season). Time will tell, but i am certainly of the belief that if he does stay that he has the class to win a gold cup. I am also a big fan of menorah and it will be very interesting to see which richard johnson rides if both turn up in this year's haldon gold cup.
Hurricane Fly 11/2 for the CH good value- but i think Dodginh Bullets @ 20/1 great e/w value as that triumph form is turning out massively!
Agree with Dex, I don't think GC stays 3miles let alone the Gold Cup trip. I'd love to see him in the Ryan Air myself and if Cue Card decides to go the Champion Chase route then he is my outright favourite for the race (I wouldn't want to split the pair at the minute)
It is possible that this year hobbs will aim menorah at the ryanair and captain chris at the gold cup. Both class horses and both under-performed last session in my view.
http://www.attheraces.com/jumps/ Really good jumps preview on the ATR microsite. Whilst you are on the subject of Grands Crus, Sean Boyce of all people has a really interesting way of analysing him and I feel he may yet be right. "I stuck my neck out about Grand Crus on the Cheltenham Festival preview circuit making a lay of him one of my plays of the meeting when many were calling him a banker. I maintain he was towed into the Feltham by a suicidal early pace and I still feel he lacks the crucial gears to be a genuinely top-class chaser. He’s a very very good horse but not quite as good as his many fans think. I can’t help feeling Grands Crus has been slightly overrated by many observers. I thought he was beaten fair and square in the RSA last year and was exposed as lacking the extra class to put races to bed against high class opponents. In an ordinary year he could hit the frame but I think this could be a vintage year for second season staying chasers making him easy to overlook." Watch his two runs against Big Bucks- hell of an engine and cruising speed, but nothing at the end. Perhaps he is right. I certainly wouldn't be holding him up, I'd be looking to win by taking a race by the scruff of the neck.
Countrywide Flame, Champion Hurdle @ 33/1. Tough, gutsy and a bit of class. Trainer has stated that he'll be aimed at Newcastle (fighting fifth) "to see if we've got a genuine CH contender". I suspect he has and if this horse hailed from a top tier yard his odds would be at least half those currently available.
hurricane fly is a terrible bet at that price. i think we have seen the best of him and while he might still win a few decent races i can't be having him regaining the champion hurdle crown. although he won the rabobank, i thought i saw a horse in decline. my bet at the moment for the champion hurdle is grandouet. can't wait to see him out this year.
After yesterday's Old Roan Chase at Aintree the consensus would seem to be that For Non Stop's target at 'Cheltenham' would be the Ryanair Chase. Any thoughts or opinions on participation in the Gold Cup?
