NAP tomorrow is 2.20 Huntingdon The Last Night 7/1 (I hope Stick will come on and do the same!) Write up to come later but the price is vanishing fast!
Tuesday October 16th Daily Thread
- Thread starter ROTO
- Start date
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Win Lucky 15 on:
3:45 Curragh - Joe Eile 7/2
4:15 Curragh - Lord Jim
4:30 Newcastle - Bouncy Bouncy 7/1
4:40 Leicester - Now Spun
Also small EW singles and EW double on:
2:50 Hunt - Zepnove 20/1
5:40 Leicester - Zafranagar 7/1
3:45 Curragh - Joe Eile 7/2
4:15 Curragh - Lord Jim
4:30 Newcastle - Bouncy Bouncy 7/1
4:40 Leicester - Now Spun
Also small EW singles and EW double on:
2:50 Hunt - Zepnove 20/1
5:40 Leicester - Zafranagar 7/1
Spot on ROTO. I have put this one up every time as the yard think a lot of it. Full brother to the very useful Tocca Ferro and Ms Lavelle rates this one highly. As I said it has let me down three times already but I am told its blossomed during the break and will win this tomorrow with minimal fuss. I hope they are right as I have lumped on early doors. Now 6-1.
That will do for me gents 
lumped on at 6s
George good race that one - Hannon horse looked useful FTO still think your selection pisses it though
lumped on at 6sGeorge good race that one - Hannon horse looked useful FTO still think your selection pisses it though
I've done the same. Blind bet at 6/1 £1,000 on the nose. I can afford to that out of winnings. So if it wins it will be the quickest I've doubled my betting bank.
Not real money of course. Hopefully I'll be here tomorrow to salute Stick (and ROTO),
Not real money of course. Hopefully I'll be here tomorrow to salute Stick (and ROTO),
That will do for me gents
George good race that one - Hannon horse looked useful FTO still think your selection pisses it though
Wouldn't touch it at evens though. Tour D'argent an exciting horse.
Blimey I better get involved on the last night as well then.
2.20 Huntingdon
The Last Night 7/1 NAP
Emma Lavelle's 5 year old has the potential to mack a mockery of his current mark of 109 if breeding and stable reports are to be believed and if he's strengthened up over the summer I can see him being very difficult to beat. Prior to making his racecourse debut, Emma Lavelle said in her stable tour that he is a "gorgeous horse that won't run until February because he's just having his wind done but one to remember" and he was so highly thought of that he made Mark Howard's 40 to follow despite being unraced. He is a full brother to the stables high class handicapping hurdler Tocca Ferro who was last seen winning two Listed Handicaps at the end of 2010, latterly off 134 so The Last Night certainly has a lot of potential on the breeding side of things. He made his racecourse debut at the end of January over today's C+D on soft ground at the end of January this year when running a race full of potential when a 12L beaten 3rd in a Novice Hurdle. After jumping pretty novicey throughout after being held up at the rear of the field, he may stylish progress round the wide outside to mount a challenge but ultimately he looked to tire in the finish with the front two drawing clear. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day on debut, especially given that the two horses in front of him were both ex flat horses who had already both had two starts over hurdles each. The winner Il De Re followed up by winning on his next start in a Novice Hurdle before contesting a Listed Handicap off a mark of 124 and he has since won his sole two starts on the flat and is rated 105 in that sphere. The 2nd Cry of Freedom won on his hurdling bow and is rated 121 in this sphere. His trainer said after this effort that "he is a very exciting horse and I can't wait for his next race".
The Last Night was then stepped up in trip and into a Class 2 novice hurdle on his 2nd start over 2m4f at Ascot in February where he was tailed off. Timeform's comments for today's race say he scoped dirty after that race so you've clearly got to ignore that effort. However, given that he was sent off the 14/1 4th choice of the punters in a race that had the exciting Keys and at the time 133 rated Sentry Duty going off 3rd favourite again says a lot about how highly he is rated by his connections. His 3rd and final start came at Kempton over 2m5f in April where he travelled into the race pretty well again but didn't find too much and was ultimately disappointing. On her website after this effort, Lavelle commented "He is a horse I just feel have not got right this year. He had a wind operation just as the season was starting and I think it probably just 'knocked' him, and although he travels well and gives you the feel of a serious horse at home he is probably still very immature, and again a good summer on his back will hopefully be the answer". A good summer on his back is exactly what he has had as he embarks upon what will hopefully be a progression that the Lavelle team is sure he can make and given how highly he seems to be rated by his yard then a mark of 109 must be well within his sphere of ability. I'm glad Stick has popped in saying he has blossomed during the break and he once again gets a favourable mention in Mark Howard's One Jump Ahead book. A niggling concern I have is the form of the stable as she is winnerless since May (only 15 runners). Most of her good runners will only be making the starts to their seasons about now so it may be nothing at all but she did have two well fancied runners flop at Exeter the other day so all may not be well in the yard. Its a risk I'm willing to take. If Lavelle has gotten him right after his 6 months absence from the track then I fancy a huge run from The Last Night and hopefully he lands this in good style.
The Last Night 7/1 NAP
Emma Lavelle's 5 year old has the potential to mack a mockery of his current mark of 109 if breeding and stable reports are to be believed and if he's strengthened up over the summer I can see him being very difficult to beat. Prior to making his racecourse debut, Emma Lavelle said in her stable tour that he is a "gorgeous horse that won't run until February because he's just having his wind done but one to remember" and he was so highly thought of that he made Mark Howard's 40 to follow despite being unraced. He is a full brother to the stables high class handicapping hurdler Tocca Ferro who was last seen winning two Listed Handicaps at the end of 2010, latterly off 134 so The Last Night certainly has a lot of potential on the breeding side of things. He made his racecourse debut at the end of January over today's C+D on soft ground at the end of January this year when running a race full of potential when a 12L beaten 3rd in a Novice Hurdle. After jumping pretty novicey throughout after being held up at the rear of the field, he may stylish progress round the wide outside to mount a challenge but ultimately he looked to tire in the finish with the front two drawing clear. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day on debut, especially given that the two horses in front of him were both ex flat horses who had already both had two starts over hurdles each. The winner Il De Re followed up by winning on his next start in a Novice Hurdle before contesting a Listed Handicap off a mark of 124 and he has since won his sole two starts on the flat and is rated 105 in that sphere. The 2nd Cry of Freedom won on his hurdling bow and is rated 121 in this sphere. His trainer said after this effort that "he is a very exciting horse and I can't wait for his next race".
The Last Night was then stepped up in trip and into a Class 2 novice hurdle on his 2nd start over 2m4f at Ascot in February where he was tailed off. Timeform's comments for today's race say he scoped dirty after that race so you've clearly got to ignore that effort. However, given that he was sent off the 14/1 4th choice of the punters in a race that had the exciting Keys and at the time 133 rated Sentry Duty going off 3rd favourite again says a lot about how highly he is rated by his connections. His 3rd and final start came at Kempton over 2m5f in April where he travelled into the race pretty well again but didn't find too much and was ultimately disappointing. On her website after this effort, Lavelle commented "He is a horse I just feel have not got right this year. He had a wind operation just as the season was starting and I think it probably just 'knocked' him, and although he travels well and gives you the feel of a serious horse at home he is probably still very immature, and again a good summer on his back will hopefully be the answer". A good summer on his back is exactly what he has had as he embarks upon what will hopefully be a progression that the Lavelle team is sure he can make and given how highly he seems to be rated by his yard then a mark of 109 must be well within his sphere of ability. I'm glad Stick has popped in saying he has blossomed during the break and he once again gets a favourable mention in Mark Howard's One Jump Ahead book. A niggling concern I have is the form of the stable as she is winnerless since May (only 15 runners). Most of her good runners will only be making the starts to their seasons about now so it may be nothing at all but she did have two well fancied runners flop at Exeter the other day so all may not be well in the yard. Its a risk I'm willing to take. If Lavelle has gotten him right after his 6 months absence from the track then I fancy a huge run from The Last Night and hopefully he lands this in good style.
2.50 Huntingdon
Porters War 7/1 NB
I think Porters War could strike at the first time of asking for Jeremy Scott who looks on a good mark when weighing up his previous form. This 10 year old gelding is is very lightly raced under rules for his age with only 16 starts to date and this will be his first run in this sphere for almost two years (he did have a run in a point in June where he was apparently beaten a long way). Formerly trained by Alan King, he was a decent enough chaser and was rated 120 at his peak with his last win coming off a mark of 113 over this distance back in April 2009. He's now fallen a long way in the weights to a mark of 99 and if Jeremy Scott has revitalised him then I think he should be more than capable of scoring off his current mark. Scott has proved adept at rejuvenating horses after a break from other trainers as can be seen by Quaddick Lake winning on stable debut after a 14 month break earlier this year so that has to go down as a big plus when weighing up Porters War's chances. Huntingdon has been a happy hunting ground for the stable for this former farmer with the yard having a tremendous 6-8 record at the track (1-2 chasing, 5-6 hurdling[scary stat given he has an unexposed horse running in The Last Night's race!]) so I think its quite significant that Porters War has his first start for the yard here. If his June Point to Point has blown away his cobwebs, I think Porters War looks primed for a big showing for a stable whose last runner was successful last week.
6.50 Wolves
Chiswick Bey 8/1
If discounting his last poor run, I think this 4 year old gelding looks to have an excellent chance on his all weather and stable debut for Ollie Pears. Chiswick Bey started out his life with Richard Fahey and looked a pretty good 2 year old competing in a Group 2 on third start, winning a handicap debut off a mark of 85 and ending the year rated a career high 93. He only managed 2 starts in his 3 year old campaign but did put in an excellent 2nd in a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 90 that year in a race whose form has worked out quite nicely. This year he looked extremely regressive for Fahey as his handicap mark fell from 90 to 79 after a string of poor efforts (all over 7/8f on soft ground) which saw him leave to join Peter Salmon's yard in August of this year. The change in scenery coupled, the step back in trip and better ground worked the absolute oracle for this 4 year old as he landed a nice old punt when supported from a double figure price into joint favouritism when making all to score over 6f at Haydock in August by 0.75L. He was always holding his rivals that day and that race has seen all of the 8 horses in behind win subsequently (only the last home Baron's Spy won NTO). The 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 8th have come out and won off the same or higher marks within a few starts whilst the rest of the field have won in the interim period off 1lb-5lb lower marks. Its the first time I've ever seen this when analysing a horse and it definitely a good sign, especially as it was only 3 months ago. Raised 4lb to a mark of 83, Chiswick Bey was sent off favourite over that same C+D but he put in a bit of a shocker where he didn't get to the front but I'm willing to overlook that effort, especially considering he has moved a new stable. Ollie Pears is a trainer I've a lot of time for and I think he's picked up a recruit that is on a good mark of 83 and given that Chiswick Bey won with a change of scenery I'm hoping history can repeat itself. Ollie Pears's horses are running well enough at present and Jacob Butterfield, who has a 21% strike rate for the yard, takes off a very useful 7lb. With the plum draw in stall 1, I envisage instructions will be to attempt to make all and if getting to the front then I believe Chiswick Bey could prove difficult to pass and hopefully he'll resume winning ways off a mark I definitely think he can exploit.
Porters War 7/1 NB
I think Porters War could strike at the first time of asking for Jeremy Scott who looks on a good mark when weighing up his previous form. This 10 year old gelding is is very lightly raced under rules for his age with only 16 starts to date and this will be his first run in this sphere for almost two years (he did have a run in a point in June where he was apparently beaten a long way). Formerly trained by Alan King, he was a decent enough chaser and was rated 120 at his peak with his last win coming off a mark of 113 over this distance back in April 2009. He's now fallen a long way in the weights to a mark of 99 and if Jeremy Scott has revitalised him then I think he should be more than capable of scoring off his current mark. Scott has proved adept at rejuvenating horses after a break from other trainers as can be seen by Quaddick Lake winning on stable debut after a 14 month break earlier this year so that has to go down as a big plus when weighing up Porters War's chances. Huntingdon has been a happy hunting ground for the stable for this former farmer with the yard having a tremendous 6-8 record at the track (1-2 chasing, 5-6 hurdling[scary stat given he has an unexposed horse running in The Last Night's race!]) so I think its quite significant that Porters War has his first start for the yard here. If his June Point to Point has blown away his cobwebs, I think Porters War looks primed for a big showing for a stable whose last runner was successful last week.
6.50 Wolves
Chiswick Bey 8/1
If discounting his last poor run, I think this 4 year old gelding looks to have an excellent chance on his all weather and stable debut for Ollie Pears. Chiswick Bey started out his life with Richard Fahey and looked a pretty good 2 year old competing in a Group 2 on third start, winning a handicap debut off a mark of 85 and ending the year rated a career high 93. He only managed 2 starts in his 3 year old campaign but did put in an excellent 2nd in a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 90 that year in a race whose form has worked out quite nicely. This year he looked extremely regressive for Fahey as his handicap mark fell from 90 to 79 after a string of poor efforts (all over 7/8f on soft ground) which saw him leave to join Peter Salmon's yard in August of this year. The change in scenery coupled, the step back in trip and better ground worked the absolute oracle for this 4 year old as he landed a nice old punt when supported from a double figure price into joint favouritism when making all to score over 6f at Haydock in August by 0.75L. He was always holding his rivals that day and that race has seen all of the 8 horses in behind win subsequently (only the last home Baron's Spy won NTO). The 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 8th have come out and won off the same or higher marks within a few starts whilst the rest of the field have won in the interim period off 1lb-5lb lower marks. Its the first time I've ever seen this when analysing a horse and it definitely a good sign, especially as it was only 3 months ago. Raised 4lb to a mark of 83, Chiswick Bey was sent off favourite over that same C+D but he put in a bit of a shocker where he didn't get to the front but I'm willing to overlook that effort, especially considering he has moved a new stable. Ollie Pears is a trainer I've a lot of time for and I think he's picked up a recruit that is on a good mark of 83 and given that Chiswick Bey won with a change of scenery I'm hoping history can repeat itself. Ollie Pears's horses are running well enough at present and Jacob Butterfield, who has a 21% strike rate for the yard, takes off a very useful 7lb. With the plum draw in stall 1, I envisage instructions will be to attempt to make all and if getting to the front then I believe Chiswick Bey could prove difficult to pass and hopefully he'll resume winning ways off a mark I definitely think he can exploit.
Newcastle abandoned folks.
Wish work was ****ing abandoned this morning.
That said though, im going to pitch two new coffees to Starbucks today.
One is gonna be called a Lance's Latte, and the other will be a Vanilla Floyd Landis both of which will give early morning workgoers a shot in the arm, so to speak.
Il get me coat.
Have a good day folks
Wish work was ****ing abandoned this morning.
That said though, im going to pitch two new coffees to Starbucks today.
One is gonna be called a Lance's Latte, and the other will be a Vanilla Floyd Landis both of which will give early morning workgoers a shot in the arm, so to speak.
Il get me coat.
Have a good day folks
Interesting coffee variations Toppy. In German, "Latte" is a slang word for an erection. Wonder if Sheryl Crow would fancy a Lance's Latte in the morning?
Morning, team. To quote Sir Brucie, ‘It’s nice to see you, to see you...NICE!’. Reasonable racing today and I’ll nominate to the old regular readers:
Pythagorean (3.10 Leicester) – this one has been placed in all 3 of his maidens to date and shown promise in the process. However, despite this it's fair to say that overall he has proved somewhat disappointing given his reported homework and alleged place in the Beckhampton ‘pecking order’. In fact Pythagorean has probably driven many of his followers to the doors of the poor house and today has the looks of the ‘last chance saloon’ for him. Today sees the old boy in yet another above average maiden but I do think today could be his turn to grace the winner’s enclosure given his experience of the game and the theory must be that today Pythagorean turns that into an overdue victory.
Tour D’argent (3.50 Huntingdon) – Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer, switches this one to fences and today sees Tour D’argent make his bow over the old big ‘uns. Twice a winner over hurdles last term the horse also ran an absolute stormer when a close 2nd in a hot Listed event at Aintree in April. He should oblige here prior to going onto take high rank amongst this terms novice chasers. A very nice prospect.
Good luck all.
Pythagorean (3.10 Leicester) – this one has been placed in all 3 of his maidens to date and shown promise in the process. However, despite this it's fair to say that overall he has proved somewhat disappointing given his reported homework and alleged place in the Beckhampton ‘pecking order’. In fact Pythagorean has probably driven many of his followers to the doors of the poor house and today has the looks of the ‘last chance saloon’ for him. Today sees the old boy in yet another above average maiden but I do think today could be his turn to grace the winner’s enclosure given his experience of the game and the theory must be that today Pythagorean turns that into an overdue victory.
Tour D’argent (3.50 Huntingdon) – Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer, switches this one to fences and today sees Tour D’argent make his bow over the old big ‘uns. Twice a winner over hurdles last term the horse also ran an absolute stormer when a close 2nd in a hot Listed event at Aintree in April. He should oblige here prior to going onto take high rank amongst this terms novice chasers. A very nice prospect.
Good luck all.
the power of "the daily thread" the prices are dropping faster than a whores drawers,
It will be interesting to see if the Hannon/Hughes bandwagon keeps on rolling today or will it be a case of after the lord mayors show? William Buick has nothing to prove but he may just want to make his presence known. My Liecester yankee will be Seek Again, Turrnager Grove, My Queenie and Now Spun
Then the 606 champagne win patent of: The Last Night, Porters War and Tour D'argent
Bet 365 shares will be dipping on the stock market tonight with my huge £19 investment
It will be interesting to see if the Hannon/Hughes bandwagon keeps on rolling today or will it be a case of after the lord mayors show? William Buick has nothing to prove but he may just want to make his presence known. My Liecester yankee will be Seek Again, Turrnager Grove, My Queenie and Now Spun
Then the 606 champagne win patent of: The Last Night, Porters War and Tour D'argent
Bet 365 shares will be dipping on the stock market tonight with my huge £19 investment
Liecester 3.10 Pythagorean 3/1
Following it off a cliff, Hillstar is no mug and Pytha will need to get his act together mentally but he has the ability and this is the last chance hes getting off me, im glad a horse like Hillstar is in here to ensure a backable price, turned over at 8/13 last time could be a blessing in disguise.
Following it off a cliff, Hillstar is no mug and Pytha will need to get his act together mentally but he has the ability and this is the last chance hes getting off me, im glad a horse like Hillstar is in here to ensure a backable price, turned over at 8/13 last time could be a blessing in disguise.
Good morning all, even though its a miserable day out there today... Just for the record my £1 Richard Hughes accy has already gone on... If only i thought that yesterday morning...
He prob wont hit a winner today, but you never know, nowt as funny as sport some days...
Just looking at the cards, back with some to avoid...
He prob wont hit a winner today, but you never know, nowt as funny as sport some days...
Just looking at the cards, back with some to avoid...
Short priced trebles from four for me today..
I am on both of SBC's picks, think they look good, specially Tour D’argent, looks by far the best horse in that race and with the champ on board.
My other picks:
Leic 4.10 - Bernisdale 6/4
Hunt 3.20 - Weekend Millionair 4/5
Missed last nights price on The Last Night so won't be backing at 11/4! Not to say it won't win but out of sheer stubbornness I won't back a horse when I missed the price by so much.
Best of luck those of you on it
I am on both of SBC's picks, think they look good, specially Tour D’argent, looks by far the best horse in that race and with the champ on board.
My other picks:
Leic 4.10 - Bernisdale 6/4
Hunt 3.20 - Weekend Millionair 4/5
Missed last nights price on The Last Night so won't be backing at 11/4! Not to say it won't win but out of sheer stubbornness I won't back a horse when I missed the price by so much.
Best of luck those of you on it
Took an early lunch today so I thought, for old times sake, I'd report that I had:
chilli con carne with rice and a side salad
a bread roll
a glass of pink greapefruit juice
Managed to avoid the chips and sweet stuff altogether and have returned to my workplace with an apple and a pear.
Just heard one chap talking on the phone saying "our fishbones are aligning". Not sure if he's been to the old canteen or is talking Ishikawa
chilli con carne with rice and a side salad
a bread roll
a glass of pink greapefruit juice
Managed to avoid the chips and sweet stuff altogether and have returned to my workplace with an apple and a pear.
Just heard one chap talking on the phone saying "our fishbones are aligning". Not sure if he's been to the old canteen or is talking Ishikawa
Just a run through the card at Huntingdon, nowt on em all, but i little nibble on the last two and ROTO's...
2.20 - The Last Night, 9/4... As per ROTO's call
2.50 - Gougane, 9/1... Brings good form here and Kieran Woods takes 5lb off always helps... e/w call
3.20 - Weekend Millionair, 8/11... If the 159 day break dosnt harm him, he should win this...
3.50 - Hildisvini, 6/1... Just fancy the Longsdon runner to take on the others in a trappy race for me. Most come here with a break behind them, even the fav Tour D'Argent has been off for 171 days, so its not one for total confidence...
4.20 - Victor Echo, 2/1... Just think its the best runner in this one.
4.50 - Tick Tocker, 9/4... This is Donald McCain's only runner here today and i think it will duly turn up and win. Irish point winner, he can open his account over here...
I will do a patent combo with the last two and ROTO's pick... Good luck if you do play today...
2.20 - The Last Night, 9/4... As per ROTO's call
2.50 - Gougane, 9/1... Brings good form here and Kieran Woods takes 5lb off always helps... e/w call
3.20 - Weekend Millionair, 8/11... If the 159 day break dosnt harm him, he should win this...
3.50 - Hildisvini, 6/1... Just fancy the Longsdon runner to take on the others in a trappy race for me. Most come here with a break behind them, even the fav Tour D'Argent has been off for 171 days, so its not one for total confidence...
4.20 - Victor Echo, 2/1... Just think its the best runner in this one.
4.50 - Tick Tocker, 9/4... This is Donald McCain's only runner here today and i think it will duly turn up and win. Irish point winner, he can open his account over here...
I will do a patent combo with the last two and ROTO's pick... Good luck if you do play today...