Daily Thread Wednesday 12th September

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OddDog

OddDog

Mild mannered janitor
Staff member
Jun 2, 2011
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Berlin, Germany
Just been browsing the Uttoxeter cards and a few have caught my eye:

2.10 Planetoid - won back-to-back handicaps on the flat for David Lanigan off 74 and not disgraced thereafter in class 4 flat handicaps off a mid-80s rating. The yard can get one ready first time out and the rest look pretty exposed or moderate. With the NH-bred types possibly struggling on the lively surface this son of Galileo should put up a bold showing.

3.50 Dancing Dude - Mr Henderson puts the blinkers on this fella who has appeared somewhat recalcitrant in the past. Should be seen to better effect on lively ground and the headgear plus a further 5lbs drop in the weights can see him prevail.

4.20 Alfraamsey - prevailing conditions sure to suit the ex-Channon inmate who has done all his winning on a sound surface. 3rd attempt over fences so the penny should be starting to drop.

4.55 Western Approaches - I'm a big fan of this game mare who belongs to that rare breed who seem to have progressed since leaving Seven Barrows (quote from Sir Barney Chuckles). She has won 2 novice hurdles in fine style and an opening handicap mark of 115 does not look overly onerous.

5.25 Josh Deets - an open looking bumper where the 2 previous winners are likely to struggle with the penalty and plenty of stoutly-bred types may not like the lively going. One that catches my eye for a couple of reasons is Josh Deets who makes the long trip over from Mark McNiff's yard in County Sligo. Not only is this a long way to come for a bumper, I also quite like the breeding of this lad, being by Pennekamp, Sheikh Mohammed's flying machine who pipped Celtic Swing in the 2000GNS in 1995. Whilst he hasn't had a great career at stud he has sired Triumph Hurdle winner Penzance and I think Josh Deets could be worth a small e/w dabble in this.

Best of luck everyone <ok>
 
Hi Guys, I am quitting work at 12 tomorrow to go to Uttoxeter so any snippets of info greatly accepted. I have made a note of your comments Oddy and if not too inebriated I shall offer some feedback tomorrow evening. Hope it's very positive!!
 
Doncaster has two interesting animals:

2.30 RIBAAT 11/8 (NB) Looked a really promising type on debut, running green as grass but with lightning speed. And despite being keen, showed a turn of foot and put the race to bed very nicely indeed. I think with that experience on his back, he can tackle Tom Dascombes UPWARD SPIRAL, who will be looking to dictate from the front at good speed and will play perfectly into Ribaats hands in helping him settle and then seeing a late turn of foot- imo!

3.05 SOLE POWER 7/4 - An absolute model of consistency at the highest level and wasn't far away at all over at York last time in what was an odd race. Must surely go close and Murtagh ought to have him in a very good sit and make it as uncomplicated as possible.

4.10 SWEDISH SAILOR (NAP)- Given Noble Mission's excellent season Swedish Sailor remains a 'what if' - having slammed Sir Henry Cecil's colt by 5 lengths. The absence is a concern but I point you in the direction of another very smart 2 year old who had a lay off for Godolphin and that was DUBAI PRINCE. I think fresh is the time to catch them and 3/1 might be value on reappearance- they are usually fit enough if they are entered up when in the royal blue!

4.45 MAGIC CITY 12/1 e.w- RV will be laughing his balls off and it is a selection with risks attatched. However, he ought to have won towards the end of last season when Hughes got into all sorts of trouble on him and it showed that there is still a serious engine there, if not the mentality to go to the top. He DOES have the form to win off 87, his final start of the season suggested a mile stretched him so 7f gives him a really nice chance to make the frame.

Here is Richard Hannons take: MAGIC CITY went really well on Sunday morning, pleased us and worked super, so off his new mark will have a very good chance. He’s a horse that we’ve always held in very high regard. He’s moving up to seven furlongs and that will suit him. It’s possible we will also run DARE TO DREAM and WOLFGANG who are now weighted to dead-heat on their running at Newbury at the end of July but I can’t see either of them beating Magic City in this form. GRAPHIC is also in there and is open to plenty of improvement but running plans for him are fluid. He’s going to be a good horse for nurseries.

http://www.attheraces.com/leger/art...tion&nav=news&sub=Richard+Hannon+Tour&day=Wed
 
Morning all,

Hope everyone's well.

One for me today:

2:00 Doncaster - Bravo Youmzain 13/2 (PP)

The step up in trip to 7furlongs should suit and had subsequent winners behind in previous races.

I normally always back Sole Power and everything looks right for it today but with it not winning since May 2011 I am leaving it so watch it hack up!

Heise - Hope you had a good day at Redcar yesterday. Well done with BPO.

Good luck all with your bets!
 
3.05 Doncaster

Roicead 22/1

I'm personally waiting until betting W/O is available as I see Sole Power as the most likely winner of the race but given that this is clearly a prep run for the Prix L'Abbeye for him then I also think taking the 22/1 available e/w for this 5 year old is fine. Last year for Brendan Duke, Roicead was a very progressive sprinter going from a mark of 74 in May to winning off a mark of 98 impressively by 2L in August and achieving a handicap mark of 108. That handicap victory was an extremely impressive effort as he won with a lot in hand at Cork and he really seemed like a sprinter going places. The form of that race looks extremely strong as well. The 2nd Nocturnal Affair, who re-opposes tomorrow off 2lb better terms but is battling for 2nd favouritism, has proven he is a top animal as he scored in two very competitive handicap off higher marks, won a Listed race and finished a very gallant 2.25L beaten 6th in a Group 1 in Meydan behind the excellent Ortensia. The 3rd The Reaper has also won a Listed race whilst scored in a handicap off a 6lb higher mark and finished less than a length beaten 3rd in a Group 3. This form is very pleasing reading and it really emphasised how good a sprinter Roicead really was.

On his last start as a 4 year old and indeed for Duke, Roicead put up another very good display when finishing a 2L beaten 3rd at The Curragh in a Group 3 6 days later. That day he was swallowed up late on but Brendan Duke had reported he was unlucky that the ground went a bit dead and that he would have loved it a bit faster than it was. Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort in a race that looks very strong. The 2nd was tomorrow's favourite Sole Power who finished a neck in front of Roicead with the former carrying 5lb more than he will today. Nevertheless, it showed me the sort of level this improving sprinter could run to. The form of that race is again rock solid with the 4th Move in Time winning a Listed contest on his next start, the 5th Invincible Ash has won a conditions race in Meydan beating Sole Power and Nocturnal Affair whilst the 7th Empowering has also won a Listed race this year. There is no doubt in my mind that Roicead is a top, top sprinter on his day and given him improving profile last year I definitely think there is more to come this year.

I'm guessing the owner had a falling out with Brendan Duke as I remember reading all of Duke's plans for the horse this year which included the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot and given that Roicead has moved to Willie Mccreery this year I'm guessing this must have happened. I also remember that Duke said he felt the horse would improve again for another winter and that there would be more to come this year. We've had an awful time with the rain this year which clearly didn't suit Roicead so all those plans clearly went out the window. He made his debut for current connections in June at The Curragh on clearly unsuitable heavy ground so I think they just wanted to get a run into him before embarking upon an autumn campaign. With the weather over here still pretty crap, he's been sent across the Irish Sea where he gets the quick conditions he craves and I think he's definitely coming over here with connections thinking he's got a very live chance. He's got a great draw in stall 12 and first time cheekpieces are applied which should hopefully eek about a little more improvement. Declan McDonogh makes the trip over from Ireland for just one ride (rides one more for McCreery tomorrow) so I'm taking it as a signal of intent from connections. Given that he was so progressive last year and if discounting his seasonal reappearance due to the ground, I don't quite how see how he is a 22/1 shot and if fully wound up I think he will definitely challenge for the placings and if he finds a slightly off colour Sole Power than he may just snag this prize.

Also like the look of

5.00 Galway The Lady Granuaile 16/1
6.15 Kempton Livia's Dream 14/1
 
3/1 Sole Power with Hills

3-5mm forecast, could be why

it wont last anyway though and im on, like Ribaat aswell.
 
Morning all,

Going to pass on some info so up to you what you do with it, Alan King sends FORRESTERS FOLLY 11/2 to Uttoxeter 2.10 and I am told it will take a bloody good one to beat him today if he takes part, they are going to check the ground before a decision on him running is made. I am on E/W as its a maiden but you go with what you like.

Best Of Luck All :wink:
 
Morning, people. Nice card at Doncaster today and the heat that I would draw everyone&#8217;s attention to is the 2YO 6 Furlong Conditions contest (2.30). Let me ask you this. Has ever a better race of this type been held than this??? And such a hot one for prizemoney as piffling as £15k??? I&#8217;ll make the prediction now that, in the long term, both Ribaat (who my regular readers will fondly recall me tipping up on his debut) and Upward Spiral will be Group 1 horses whilst Cour Valant is no &#8216;back number&#8217; either. I think though that those bookie chappies have priced it up about right but if someone held a gun to my head and asked me for the most likely winner I&#8217;d say Upward Spiral, what a lovely name for a filly by the way. This is a heat to watch with the old notebook though as I think it contains a couple of potentially exceptional animals.

In the &#8216;lucky last&#8217; (5.25) at Utooxter one that I will put up again though is HOT RHYTHM, each-way, another lovely name for a filly. She ran a corker on debut to be 3rd at Hereford and you can guarantee that she will have come on for that run under the care of the excellent Tom Symonds. Mr Henderson has taught this old boy what to do when he gets a good &#8216;un and this knowledge will be imparted to ensure Hot Rhythm is highly competitive this afternoon. Her dam was a winner for Sir Henry so to boot the filly has a better pedigree than almost anything else in the race. Furthermore, she is clearly well thought of as Mr Symonds is prepared to contest this heat with her rather than a far, far simpler &#8216;Mares Only&#8217; race elsewhere. I really can&#8217;t believe that those bookie chappies are calling 11/1 re her chances and recommend her most heartily, each-way.

Good luck to one and all.
 
Few non-runners starting to come through. Bravo Youmzain out of opener at Donny and in the &#8216;lucky last&#8217; there Cheveton also out. To firm for the latter one would imagine in what would have been his &#8216;prep&#8217; for Ayr. Look out for him up in Scotland next weekend if its soft as in 2010 he won the &#8216;Bronze Cup&#8217; and in &#8217;11 the &#8216;Silver Cup&#8217;. Is also now on a lower mark than both those wins.
 
Its a hard one to call, Ribaat and Upward Spiral, you could argue that the prices should be reversed, just a coin toss really so the logical thing to do would be to go with Upward Spiral at the prices but I was impressed with Ribaat and I will go with him depiste the price being on the short side.
 
Good morning all... Here are the ones to avoid for today...!!!

Donny..

2.00 - Red Avenger
2.30 - Ribaat
3.05 - Masamah
3.40 - Elijah Pepper
4.10 - Swedish Sailor
4.45 - Born To Suprise
5.15 - Drift And Dream

Thats the Donny card done n dusted... No complaints if they lose, they have been tipped up by me, thats why...<laugh><laugh>

Good luck if your playing today...<cheers>
 
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