That was alway's the plan alright just a shame he's going now as soon as O'Brien openly admitted he had been training him incorrectly we may not have seen the best of him over here but nontheless a very good horse in his own right, hope he get's through safe Saturday and enjoy's his new job.
I'm not ruling out Bonfire here. He didn't stay the Derby trip and he receives a fair amount of weight. I don't think Nathaniel will be winning over 1m2f on good ground, Cityscape has to prove he stays and Farhh ran behind Carlton House (also a Dante winner) and, as I said, has to give this years Dante winner (and I think Bonfire won with some in hand) a fair bit of weight. It looks a weak race. Where's out European racing correspondant? Crackerjack King has run his last two 10f races (both on good ground) in sub 2 minutes 2 seconds. I know different tracks, pace ect but that strikes me as Quick with a capital Q.
So what's gonna win then ? I've had a look whilst eating my butties here in work and FARHH stands out and will luck in running must surely go close ??? yes ? no ?
I have just had three looks at The Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot this year. Here are my uneducated judgements: 1. Carlton House did not stay. 2. Both Farhh and Reliable Man unlucky. Farhh the more so. I would however not give this 'bad luck' too much creedence for future runs. 3. Important; in four runs this is the closest that Sri Putra has finished to So You Think. To summarise; if I was having a wager on the Eclipse I would bet Nathaniel if good to soft/soft or Crackerjack King if good or better. Anyway, good luck to all who are having a 'plunge'.
Is Twice Over, a past winner of the race lest we forget, being overlooked at 16/1? A degree of forgiveness is required but it was less than a year ago that he was winning the Juddmonte International. He always runs badly at Ascot so those efforts can be safely ignored and the ground was atrocious last time. His reappearance was no more than fair but no disaster either. I should add that the above is not necessarily an endorsement, I'm just throwing his hat into the ring.
Are Carlton House's connections kicking themselves that they've withdrawn him or is the comment 'he doesn't stay' ringing in their ears. Surprisingly he's entered for a one mile handicap at Goodwood on August 3rd. So bayernkenny may be right. If it comes up soft then for me it's Nathaniel, on good or faster it's Bonfire.
The Goodwood entry for Carlton House in the Mile Handicap was a mistake. He was meant to be entered in the Celebration Mile (I think) which doesn't close for another couple of weeks.
I have got to say i really fancy Nathaniel now, just a shame So you Think came out as much shorter now.
I would actually stick my neck out and say Nathaniel wins by around 3- 5 lengths as i think he will be sent for home early and will have far too much class and staying power and will open up leaving the rest playing for places. I think the Ascot race was not great and made So you think look good. There is no way Nathaniel would find it as easy as i think he will were SYT still in the race but i still think he would win. Nathaniel to win by 3-5 lengths
My money will be on Nathaniel too, the form Gosden and Buick are in makes me that even more bit certain!!
Surely on value grounds it makes sense to look away from the favourites tomorrow? 5/2 about any of them doesn't scream a good bet to me.
Nathaniel, though, was well held over 10f at Ascot last season. Plus that was his last run. I agree he'll be very handy if not making all but I just don't think he'll have the speed to get home
