6.10 Windsor
Livias Dream 10/1 NAP
Rather like the look of Ed Walker's 3 year old handicap debutant who I think has a very good chance to break her maiden at the 4th attempt. This filly steps up to 10f for the first time and although she has a 9 month break to overcome I think Ed Walker should have her absolutely spot on for this. Her two year old debut came over 7f at Doncaster last July when she put in an eye catching 2L beaten 3rd. After breaking tardily, she looked outpaced for a lot of the journey before the penny dropped late on as she finished to very good effect and it was a very promising debut. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Dance The Rain subsequently finishing a head beaten 2nd off a mark of 81 whilst the 2nd Ghost Protocol is now an 88 rated animal. Her 2nd start came one month later at Folkestone again over 7f as she finished a not knocked about 6L beaten 5th. Once again she seemed outpaced as she had to be pushed along from about half way before making some decent enough headway under largely hands and heels riding. That race significantly suited those who raced on the pace with the first 4 home occupying those positions for the entire race. I really don't think the track suited her at all and I think she did very well to finish as close as she did. The form of that race isn't up to much but considering she wasn't hardly knocked about over a trip that is clearly on the sharp side it was still an encouraging effort. Her final start came when upped to 1m at Nottingham but Ed Walker has stated on his site that she picked up an injury so I am going to ignore that effort.
I think after analysing her first two starts, and in particular her first, that her handicap mark of 68 looks rather manageable given she is unexposed and should definitely improve upped in trip. Although she has a 9 month gap to overcome, her best race to date came on debut so I have no qualms about her ability to go well fresh. Moreover, he trainer Ed Walker seems particularly adept at readying his horses after a break and I am convinced she will be race fit for tomorrows race. This race Class 5 handicap is a moderate enough place for her to start her handicapping career and it looks a very winnable contest, especially the step up in trip nearly guaranteed to suit. Trainer Ed Walker couldn't be in better form at present, with 5 winners from his last 11 runners and that is a huge positive. William Buick, who couldn't be riding any better right now, takes the ride and he is an extremely encouraging booking. To date, Buick has had 4 rides for Walker and he has won three so it certainly seems that connections feel she is going to run a huge race tomorrow. The combination are 2-2 this year and I feel they have an extremely good chance of keeping that record going tomorrow. With the draw in stall 7 decent enough, I think Livias Dream will run a very big race tomorrow and I think she has an excellent chance of starting off her 3 year old career with a bang.
