Hope so http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=525509&lid=&raceid=&title=Cecil+hoping+for+Camelot+clash&ref=atrPA+Racing+Feed&nav=home080612&sub=&day=Fri
It sounds like Sir Henry would like the match to happen and it's certainly sporting as would be going into the race having not tested Frankel at 10f at the time of the race. It would i feel depend on Coolmore's belief in Camalot, as they are very much a bloodstock organisation and will be delighted at the way Camalot has already been measured and fitted with a crown for recording what looks on paper quite ordinairy victories. They will be aware they could place him now to remain unbeaten and pick up a triple crown along the way which would look very good and asure him a great legacy. If they took on Frankel however he could be made look more ordinairy than he's public perception and that would of course effect his legacy, as a 8 lengh beating without Frankel being asked will bring an awful lot of his past record into question. They have had this scenario play out before in a small way with Canford Cliffs last year. After his early season victories or rather the manner of them people were stating this horse is very special (which he was), he's improved (which he had), he's the best miler for quite a while (possibily) and then in the Sussex he was made look very ordinairy and promptly retired. There is the other side of the decision they will ponder however which is if they really believe in Camalot, Frankel has a reputation like no other horse in my lifetime and if Camalot came along and beat him then he really would leave a legacy that would ensure his name was talked of for a very long time. Just to make clear i really like Camalot and am excited by him and think it is great that a real genuine challenger to Frankel has come along. My only issue is that the form book which is all we can really use to make a case for a horse's greatness simply does not offer support for the coronation of a king just yet. One thing is for sure, with Frankel fit and sound he will have the opportunity to prove himself if his handlers would like to. As a Frankel fan should Camalot best him i would be disappointed, but would be heard loudly applauding a great performance and a sporting gamble coming off from his owners with gusto.
If Frankel and Camelot are to meet, I would expect that it would have to be over ten furlongs and the most realistic occasion for that to happen would be the Champion Stakes in October. By that time, Camelot could be a Triple Crown hero. I do not see Camelot travelling to York for a potential showdown in the Juddmonte International before that and we already know that the Irish Champion Stakes is not on the itinerary for Frankel. Since I expect that the Frankel fan club will outweigh the Camelot one (until the latter possibly completes the Triple Crown decisively), victory for Sir Henry Cecil’s charge would be expected to raise the roof.
Wouldn't wish to put the ****s up Frankel fans but if (just for example) they met in the first half of July over 10f these would be the adjusted Timeform ratings: Frankel 157 Camelot 156p My money would be on Camelot without any doubt. But I would be happy to look stupid.
Im afraid you may Ron Frankel is the best flat horse ever! Yes camelot is special but he wont come close to Frankels pure speed and the way he can just quicken up and leave them for dead! Im sure he will get the distance, this year he is stronger, bigger and more of a machine then last year. Frankel will leave him in his wake
Don't forget that, despite his speed, he hasn't yet clocked a fast time. Only once has he gone faster than average and that was when he hung on to beat Zoffany over 8f. Camelot is proven to stay and has clocked faster than average carrying the same weight as Frankel. He would be receiving 11lbs from Frankel in July. It's not as cut and tried as you may think.
Did they? Much as I would like to see Frankel win and win well, I just can't fault my logic which concludes "It's not as cut and tried as you may think." Anyway I have a stinking cold so I'm going to bed and hope to sleep through. Night night Wooly; I'll probably dream of you winning the GN now.
Ron....I think your analysis is incredibly harsh on Frankel. Let's face it how many times has Frankel run on fast ground, to give him the opportunity to clock a fast time?* I'd say once, and that was in the St James's Palace stakes. You keep saying how Zoffany run him close, yes he did, but surely you can see what an awful ride Frankel was given that day. Pretty much every racing pundit/expert (whatever you want to call them) realises that was an awful ride from Queally, and Frankel did extremely well to overcome that ride. So I can't for the life of me understand why you hold that against Frankel, can you not see yourself that it was a bad ride? Or do you think Queally rode him well that day?* The above and below standard stuff is all pointless on turf, you have to compare the time to other races on the same day, as the ground conditions are so important, and Frankels Guineas time was ridiculously fast in comparison to the other races on the same day, that's why timeform gave him such a hefty rating.** I just hope he does meet Camelot, as atleast then the doubters will realise what a super horse he is, as I have no doubt whatsoever that Camelot would take a hefty beating**
An interesting point is that speed raters, who devise their ratings based on the time of the race, adjusted to account for the ground, have Camelot higher than Frankel, and So You Think higher still (or so I am informed by a friend who does such ratings himself - apparently there is a fairly standard method). Whether that is genuinely indicative that they would, given an optimally run race, finish in that order I don't know, but it would seem to lend itself to Ron's point. It seems to me that we're basically objecting to Frankel for 'only beating what turns up on the day', which as far as I'm concerned is exactly what Camelot has done. I have found Camelots wins interesting - he's won well every time... but for me not quite as comfortably as Frankel has. If there were decent odds on Frankel I'd invest, but overall I think it'd be a 'watch' rather than a 'bet' race. Probably won't happen anyway!
I'm not being harsh at all Shergar. I am merely stating facts. I don't think anyone could be harsh on Frankel; he is awesome. I haven't criticised his times as we all know they can be affected by all sorts of things but it doesn't alter the facts. I don't buy the dreadful ride from Queally. Many horses take the lead that far out or even lead all the way, as he did in the Guineas. If he hadn't slowed up towards the finish he would have clocked a decent time; but he did slow up and nearly got caught. Anyone would think I've got it in for Frankel and nothing could be further from the truth. I had the family watch him in his last race and they are now all Frankel fans. We adore the horse. But when it comes down to analysing his chances against Camelot over 10f, objectively, giving away 11lbs, I can't be as confident as some and all I have concluded is that it isn't so cut and dried as some think. Sorry but that's my opinion based on what's happened so far, not on what I feel might have happened.
This is a really interesting debate. I'm not too sure what I feel about "that" ride. Queally clearly knew that he had a super horse under him. When he went away, he just broke their hearts. There was nothing the others could do. If they didn't chase him, they they would have had to spot him an enormous lead. When they chased him, yuou saw the result. I don't think he could have been beaten, no matter how he was ridden. And to be frank, I can't see the horse being beaten at 10f, by a three year old, even if in receipt of 11 pounds. I don't think you see Frankel lead again. If the pace in a 10f race is on, he'll be ridden coldly, then sprint. If the they walk, he'll flog them. For mine Camelot is more the staying type.
OK. Put it this way. If Camelot has a pacemaker doing his job to make it at fast run race and Camelot completes the 10f in 2 secs faster than standard (not unreasonable for a good horse on a sound surface) Frankel will have to beat that time giving away 11lb. If he can do that then he's even more awesome than I thought.
Do you think the weight for age is accurate Ron?* I always felt it favoured the 3yos slightly, until I seen Harbinger's KG. Now I'm not really sure, where i stand on it*
That's a tricky one Shergar. Some horses mature physically and mentally faster than others and, of course, some 3yos are older than other 3yos etc: so I guess it can't be an exact science. Also horses that are over raced at 2 and 3 will not progress as well as those that have been brought along more patiently. I don't know if you saw the interview with Black Caviar's trainer. He was talking about the injuries she had at 2 and 3 that kept her off the track for quite some time. When asked if he thought that had helped towards her future development, he replied "Most definitely". There is a very strong tendency to rush young horse along too fast because of the money involved. Not rocket science when you think about the tremendous strain on their joints and ligaments at such a tender age when they are not fully developed. Still that's another topic. PS. Harbinger was a monster and an excellent advert for the benefits of being patient and allowing a horse to develop physically without hammering it at 2 and 3years old. PPS. I know you aren't a big fan of Zenyatta Shergar but she was a legend over there. Now she was almost 4years old before her first race. Born 1st Jan 2004 (bit suspicious) and first race 22nd Nov 2007. Another example of the rewards of not racing/over racing as a 2/3yo.
What i still find hard to comprehend is how we get ideas about some horses and not others. I really feel like i am missing something as i cannot see any evidence that Camalot is anything but an unproved horse with great potential. He has not one thing in the book to bring out and say look at that! Beating Astrology, Main Suquance and French Fifteen amounts to very little and yet he is being spoken of as a champion of champions. See the Stars however had to go far more races and pretty much was not accepted as the horse most believe he now was until the Arc. I note that you felt it necessary to make the point that you are not having a go at Frankel Ron as it may wrongly appear you are, and i feel i need do the same with Camalot as i like the horse but as i mention i feel i am missing something. To put it into perspective i cannot see another 3 year old to beat him at present but i feel Excelebration would over a mile whist SNA would and Nathaniel probably would over 12f. I think they will protect him from here on in and not allow him to be tested but i hope i am proved wrong.
