Hope Sanctuaire is not another Twist Magic as I have had two AP punts for 2013 CC. Comments from PN would suggest light campaign; Tingle Creek - CC next season. As opposed to TM he has pretty good Cheltenham record. Any thoughts.
Sanctuaire
- Thread starter bayernkenny
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He was impressive yesterday no doubt and Sandown looks his course so he might be able to give SS a race in the Tingle Creek. Bear in mind though he was beating tired over the top horses yesterday who had, had long seasons and yesterday was an after thought. Where as Nicholls had targeted this all season. Also he's refused to start before and his temprement is questionable. He's also likely to be facing the most exciting national hunt horse for years. Not an ante post prospect for me nearly 11 months ahead.
He's a very exciting prospect and I'm already really looking forward to a potential clash with Sprinter Sacre in next year's Champion Chase. They looks like very similar horses to me, both very athletic, superb jumpers and relentless gallopers. Sanctuaire has sometimes looked a bit barmy in the past when refusing to start but I hope that is all behind him now. If both horses remain fit and well then Sanctuaire vs. Sprinter Sacre could be the greatest clash over 2 miles since the days of Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop.
Agree with all the above, particularly the strength of yesterday's field and timescale however looking at opposition (at moment) to Sprinter Sacre I do not think 12/1 is unreasonable. Also, there may be a very few opponents to Sprinter Sacre.
I have entered into the fray for next year's festival at 12/1 and at a much bigger price (both E/W); my earlier small wager being based on information gleened from two other websites.
I have entered into the fray for next year's festival at 12/1 and at a much bigger price (both E/W); my earlier small wager being based on information gleened from two other websites.
50s?! 66/1 if you please.
http://cuhrs.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/champion-chase-2013.html
I'm trying (and failing) to work at the moment but will post on this matter later.
To stimulate debate . . .
"Sanctuaire should be rated as the Champion Novice ahead of Sprinter Sacre. His current Champion Chase odds of 12/1 offer brilliant value compared to Sprinter Sacre at 5/4 as a result. Discuss."
Sanctuaire beat French Opera by 20+ lengths, SS beat the same horse by about 5... Seems reasonable to me.
Bit of a shocker though. Can't see the handicapper sticking to it...
Where has this horse come from though? Last Christmas Sanctuaire he was tailed off in the Christmas hurdle and 4 months later we're talking about him maybe being the best chaser in training. I think it's a little soon to say that really, there are lots of excuses for yesterday - end of the season, ground ect. Somersby was beaten exactly the same distance by Riverside Theatre (though also beat Fin. Rainbow this year) so the form is hard to assess. I think you are a little harsh on S. Sacre Danish, that 6L victory is describe by the RP as "Took keen hold, soon tracking leaders, led 7th, came easily clear from 3 out, won on bridle, impressive".
I'm not sure either of those prices represent value right now, the Sprinter Sacre price definately doesn't and I want to see more of Sanctuaire. On the basis that Sprinter Sacre at 5/4 is utterly horrendous I think the Sanctuaire price is better but for me Sprinter Sacre is hands down the Champion Novice and, in fact, the best chaser of the season.
I'm not sure either of those prices represent value right now, the Sprinter Sacre price definately doesn't and I want to see more of Sanctuaire. On the basis that Sprinter Sacre at 5/4 is utterly horrendous I think the Sanctuaire price is better but for me Sprinter Sacre is hands down the Champion Novice and, in fact, the best chaser of the season.
The most telling thing for me yesterday was the commentary of Ian Bartlett, who incendentally also happened to be commentating on Frankel's Guineas win for Racing UK, and you can hear the same sort of amazement in his voice in the 2 commentaries. Whatever you say about the others in the field it was a very impressive visual performance, jumping for fun and never allowing the others to get a blow in. Can't wait for next season with this fella and Sprinter Sacre - for me they both have that "wow" factor which can only be good for racing.
I know we are 46 weeks away however I have just had a look at the 'Oddschecker' prices for the 2013 QMCC. The second favourite is Finians Rainbow (Henderson) and is more than likely, after Martell Chase effort, to step up in distance. The third favourite is Sizing Europe who will be eleven. After Sanctuaire we have Al Ferof, Cue Card and Menorah. I cannot see any of these three becoming a two mile chamipion chaser. We could, of course, have a Synchronised coming out of the clouds in this division however history tells us otherwise.
I return to my original decision to top up my AP at 12/1; where are the alternatives, even at 46 weeks away, in a likely single figure field?
I return to my original decision to top up my AP at 12/1; where are the alternatives, even at 46 weeks away, in a likely single figure field?
to be fair Sprinter Sacre could have beaten French Opera by 20 + lengths had Gerragthy even asked him to extend.
Sprinter Sacre has looked nothing short of exceptional this season with 5 wins from 5 starts. He has barely been off the bridle, has travelled exuberantly and jumped flamboyantly and accurately. He is rightly rated as one of the best (if not the best) novice chaser for a very long time. From the impression he has created it is very hard to argue with that. I, therefore, find the very suggestion that another novice could possibly be rated higher tricky to accept but that is the suggestion that Sanctuaire's scintillating win on Saturday demands.
For all his apparent brilliance, Sprinter Sacre's reputation relies to a large extent on the impression he has created and the manner in which he has beaten his rivals rather than who those rivals were. Sanctuaire had beaten nothing in his first two starts but had done it in breathtaking fashion. I can honestly say that his three starts this season would rank very highly in my list of favourite races for the campaign. However, in the Celebration he went from being an exciting chaser to a potential champion and in no uncertain terms.
I have backed him at 66/1 EW for the Champion Chase and I am the first to admit that it was a speculative wager that was far more likely to be written off before the end of the season than it was to have any realistic chance of being a winner. My main reason was that the other challengers looked so weak and so few and far between that a speculative bet on a 66/1 shot who just might make up into a contender was worth a stab.
I backed him on Saturday as well at 11/2 but was concerned by the ground and the absence of Ruby from the saddle who, until yesterday, was the only person to have won on him. I was hopeful of a return but not in my wildest dreams did expect him to pull out a performance of that quality. His jumping was absolutely superb, he travelled strongly without pulling as he has done in the past, and he never stopped in front and galloped right to the line. The thing which impressed me most was the way that the others just couldn't make significant inroads into his lead. Whether they cut him too much slack I don't know. However, I watched the replay and Richard Johnson (and others) are niggling along down the back straight long before the railway fences suggesting they were fully aware of the situation. When their urgings became more serious they still failed to close him down at anything other than a steady rate. They had got his lead down to about 15(ish) lengths at the last but when Daryl Jacob asked him to put the race to bed after the last he drew away from them again which really struck me as being quite remarkable. To jump, travel and finish as well as he did on ground as bad as that was deeply impressive.
I will admit to having a soft spot for the horse. Even over hurdles he has always been one that I've kept a close eye on. For some reason I seem to be drawn to flawed brilliance. I have always thought he had the talent to be brilliant but his temperament was a significant flaw in his make-up. It is pleasing that fences (and/or front-running tactics) have (touch wood) put those problems to bed. He had looked sulky over hurdles but has appeared to relish every yard of his three starts over fences.
It is also important to establish some perspective here as well. He did not make his chasing debut until 31st January this year. In those two starts he had beaten only 7 rivals none of whom were rated higher than 130. On just his third start, three months after his chasing debut, he tackles the Celebration. Of the 7 opponents, only Dan Breen (148) was rated lower than 153, and Somersby, Wishfull Thinking and French Opera were all rated 160+. As I said at the time, it was a very good solid field, with nothing that was tip-top class. I hoped Sanctuaire might be which was why I was prepared to give him a chance. He fairly destroyed them from the front.
If we crudely assume 1lb per length then his rating would come out as follows:
Somersby 166 beaten 17 lengths conceding 4lbs - 179
Dan Breen 148 beaten 19 (to the nearest length) lengths - 167
French Opera 162 beaten 23 lengths - 185
Wishfull Thinking 164 beaten 28 lengths - 192
West With The Wind 154 beaten 31 lengths - 185
Woolcombe Folly 155 beaten 36 lengths - 191
Ignored Cornas (203 for anybody interested!)
A literal interpretation of the form means that he can only be rated lower than Sprinter Sacre by assuming that Dan Breen has run to his mark of 148, and that everything else has run below form. That might be the case but it does seem a little convenient. I think both Somersby and French Opera could be regarded as 'solid yardsticks' but the same cannot be said of Wishfull Thinking. If Somersby and French Opera have run to form then they should finish level with Somersby conceding 4lbs. Somersby beat French Opera by nearly 6 lengths. For Somersby to have run below form, French Opera would have had to be a lot below his mark (not impossible).
So if Somersby has run to his mark of 166 (previous best performances have been at Ascot, another stiff right handed track) then French Opera has run to 156 which I think sounds fair enough. Both of those figures put Sanctuaire onto 179. Dan Breen is the anomaly in the pack but the above interpretation of Somersby and French Opera's performances would put him up 12lbs to 160. Is Dan Breen a 160 horse? I don't think so. He is rated 148 and I would find a mark of 155 believable but not much more than that. Dropping them all 5lbs to put Dan Breen on 155 puts Somersby to 161 (I think he is a 160ish horse anyway) and French Opera to 151 (well below form but he was beaten a long way out). Those ratings are believable to me, and put Sanctuaire onto a scarcely believable 174. That means he would have won the Arkle by 5 lengths and the Champion Chase by 1 length. That rating is arrived at using a fairly pessimistic view of the form (which I'm not totally convinced is justified personally). However, that gives him 5lbs in hand over Sprinter Sacre on 169 and you need to keep chipping away to bring Sanctuaire back down below him. The handicapper might well do so but I think he is going to have to try pretty hard to not put Sanctuaire above his 169. So we have the best novice for decades who is not even going to be Champion Novice. Trust me, I find it as hard to believe as you do. The last time I did this exercise was with the Arkle and consistently found that Cue Card was 2nd best in the Arkle. I couldn't have him at all but, needless to say, he finished a clear 2nd.
I am sure some will argue that he was given too much slack on the front end but his jumping was so quick and slick that I'm not sure the rest had all that much choice. I am positive that the other jockeys were aware of what was going on early in the race in that Richard Johnson (and others) noticeably niggle their mounts along after the water jump (if not earlier). They knew what was going on and could do nothing about it. Going down the back it is noticeable how much faster Sanctuaire is at his fences compared to anything else.
So there you have it. Sprinter Sacre is the best winner of the Arkle for decades, the best novice chaser for decades, unbeaten, and then up pops Sanctuaire from nowhere to beat him to the title of champion novice. Will the handicappers force it (and I think they will have to) to make Sprinter Sacre champion? Quite possibly, but I think they will have to try hard to keep Sanctuaire below him.
Now the prices: Sprinter Sacre is 5/4 and Sanctuaire is 12/1 for the 2013 Champion Chase. Which do I prefer? I think the 5/4 is horrific compared to the 12/1 you can get on Sanctuaire. I am certain that Sprinter Sacre has more in the locker but so does Sanctuaire and I think it can at least be argued that his Celebration form is stronger than anything Sprinter Sacre has achieved. Both are unbeaten over fences, both have been immensely impressive in all their starts and I for one cannot wait for the Tingle Creek 2013 when we will find out where they stand.
I was finding it very hard to resist taking a bit of the 12/1 and having done this analysis it is even harder. The one thing stopping me is that I already have him at 66/1. If I didn't I would certainly have a bit. His performance has come from so far out of the blue that it could be being underrated. I think he is at least a serious challenger to Sprinter Sacre and I don't think it is anything like the formality that the odds suggest that the Henderson superstar will come out on top. That clash will be something to savour.
Agree or disagree?
For all his apparent brilliance, Sprinter Sacre's reputation relies to a large extent on the impression he has created and the manner in which he has beaten his rivals rather than who those rivals were. Sanctuaire had beaten nothing in his first two starts but had done it in breathtaking fashion. I can honestly say that his three starts this season would rank very highly in my list of favourite races for the campaign. However, in the Celebration he went from being an exciting chaser to a potential champion and in no uncertain terms.
I have backed him at 66/1 EW for the Champion Chase and I am the first to admit that it was a speculative wager that was far more likely to be written off before the end of the season than it was to have any realistic chance of being a winner. My main reason was that the other challengers looked so weak and so few and far between that a speculative bet on a 66/1 shot who just might make up into a contender was worth a stab.
I backed him on Saturday as well at 11/2 but was concerned by the ground and the absence of Ruby from the saddle who, until yesterday, was the only person to have won on him. I was hopeful of a return but not in my wildest dreams did expect him to pull out a performance of that quality. His jumping was absolutely superb, he travelled strongly without pulling as he has done in the past, and he never stopped in front and galloped right to the line. The thing which impressed me most was the way that the others just couldn't make significant inroads into his lead. Whether they cut him too much slack I don't know. However, I watched the replay and Richard Johnson (and others) are niggling along down the back straight long before the railway fences suggesting they were fully aware of the situation. When their urgings became more serious they still failed to close him down at anything other than a steady rate. They had got his lead down to about 15(ish) lengths at the last but when Daryl Jacob asked him to put the race to bed after the last he drew away from them again which really struck me as being quite remarkable. To jump, travel and finish as well as he did on ground as bad as that was deeply impressive.
I will admit to having a soft spot for the horse. Even over hurdles he has always been one that I've kept a close eye on. For some reason I seem to be drawn to flawed brilliance. I have always thought he had the talent to be brilliant but his temperament was a significant flaw in his make-up. It is pleasing that fences (and/or front-running tactics) have (touch wood) put those problems to bed. He had looked sulky over hurdles but has appeared to relish every yard of his three starts over fences.
It is also important to establish some perspective here as well. He did not make his chasing debut until 31st January this year. In those two starts he had beaten only 7 rivals none of whom were rated higher than 130. On just his third start, three months after his chasing debut, he tackles the Celebration. Of the 7 opponents, only Dan Breen (148) was rated lower than 153, and Somersby, Wishfull Thinking and French Opera were all rated 160+. As I said at the time, it was a very good solid field, with nothing that was tip-top class. I hoped Sanctuaire might be which was why I was prepared to give him a chance. He fairly destroyed them from the front.
If we crudely assume 1lb per length then his rating would come out as follows:
Somersby 166 beaten 17 lengths conceding 4lbs - 179
Dan Breen 148 beaten 19 (to the nearest length) lengths - 167
French Opera 162 beaten 23 lengths - 185
Wishfull Thinking 164 beaten 28 lengths - 192
West With The Wind 154 beaten 31 lengths - 185
Woolcombe Folly 155 beaten 36 lengths - 191
Ignored Cornas (203 for anybody interested!)
A literal interpretation of the form means that he can only be rated lower than Sprinter Sacre by assuming that Dan Breen has run to his mark of 148, and that everything else has run below form. That might be the case but it does seem a little convenient. I think both Somersby and French Opera could be regarded as 'solid yardsticks' but the same cannot be said of Wishfull Thinking. If Somersby and French Opera have run to form then they should finish level with Somersby conceding 4lbs. Somersby beat French Opera by nearly 6 lengths. For Somersby to have run below form, French Opera would have had to be a lot below his mark (not impossible).
So if Somersby has run to his mark of 166 (previous best performances have been at Ascot, another stiff right handed track) then French Opera has run to 156 which I think sounds fair enough. Both of those figures put Sanctuaire onto 179. Dan Breen is the anomaly in the pack but the above interpretation of Somersby and French Opera's performances would put him up 12lbs to 160. Is Dan Breen a 160 horse? I don't think so. He is rated 148 and I would find a mark of 155 believable but not much more than that. Dropping them all 5lbs to put Dan Breen on 155 puts Somersby to 161 (I think he is a 160ish horse anyway) and French Opera to 151 (well below form but he was beaten a long way out). Those ratings are believable to me, and put Sanctuaire onto a scarcely believable 174. That means he would have won the Arkle by 5 lengths and the Champion Chase by 1 length. That rating is arrived at using a fairly pessimistic view of the form (which I'm not totally convinced is justified personally). However, that gives him 5lbs in hand over Sprinter Sacre on 169 and you need to keep chipping away to bring Sanctuaire back down below him. The handicapper might well do so but I think he is going to have to try pretty hard to not put Sanctuaire above his 169. So we have the best novice for decades who is not even going to be Champion Novice. Trust me, I find it as hard to believe as you do. The last time I did this exercise was with the Arkle and consistently found that Cue Card was 2nd best in the Arkle. I couldn't have him at all but, needless to say, he finished a clear 2nd.
I am sure some will argue that he was given too much slack on the front end but his jumping was so quick and slick that I'm not sure the rest had all that much choice. I am positive that the other jockeys were aware of what was going on early in the race in that Richard Johnson (and others) noticeably niggle their mounts along after the water jump (if not earlier). They knew what was going on and could do nothing about it. Going down the back it is noticeable how much faster Sanctuaire is at his fences compared to anything else.
So there you have it. Sprinter Sacre is the best winner of the Arkle for decades, the best novice chaser for decades, unbeaten, and then up pops Sanctuaire from nowhere to beat him to the title of champion novice. Will the handicappers force it (and I think they will have to) to make Sprinter Sacre champion? Quite possibly, but I think they will have to try hard to keep Sanctuaire below him.
Now the prices: Sprinter Sacre is 5/4 and Sanctuaire is 12/1 for the 2013 Champion Chase. Which do I prefer? I think the 5/4 is horrific compared to the 12/1 you can get on Sanctuaire. I am certain that Sprinter Sacre has more in the locker but so does Sanctuaire and I think it can at least be argued that his Celebration form is stronger than anything Sprinter Sacre has achieved. Both are unbeaten over fences, both have been immensely impressive in all their starts and I for one cannot wait for the Tingle Creek 2013 when we will find out where they stand.
I was finding it very hard to resist taking a bit of the 12/1 and having done this analysis it is even harder. The one thing stopping me is that I already have him at 66/1. If I didn't I would certainly have a bit. His performance has come from so far out of the blue that it could be being underrated. I think he is at least a serious challenger to Sprinter Sacre and I don't think it is anything like the formality that the odds suggest that the Henderson superstar will come out on top. That clash will be something to savour.
Agree or disagree?
Sanctuaire was very impressive, no doubt. He has always appeared a class act but I've never seen him that good.
You may well be right Zen but I would be a little wary of calculating his rating based on those distances on that ground. He was obviously enjoying himself in the ground but the others may have not been ridden out once all chance had gone. I haven't watched the race again yet but often the beaten horses could have finished much closer had they not coasted the last 100 yards. In other words it is quite feasible that they all ran below form behind purely because they had no chance of getting to the winner, so why flog them in that ground?
Just another angle.
Judging Sanctuaire on the bare result and he looked outstanding.
But Somersby is a monkey at the best of times.French opera could barely jump a twig the entire race.Wishfull thinking is talented but ultimately frustrating and inconsistent.
Then throw in Heavy ground and you have a typical end of season result.
But Somersby is a monkey at the best of times.French opera could barely jump a twig the entire race.Wishfull thinking is talented but ultimately frustrating and inconsistent.
Then throw in Heavy ground and you have a typical end of season result.
They were hard ridden to try and get to him and did make inroads into his lead, but Sanctuaire was going away again at the line when Daryl Jacob asks him to go and win his race. I appreciate that the distances need to be treated with caution but I am of the opinion that they don't overstate his superiority to too great an extent. I might be wrong but I think it is very hard to look upon the form with anything other than a positive view. If you took him out of the race then you would say Dan Breen had run a blinder and Somersby had won as you might have expected. Sanctuaire was just 17 lengths in front of them all.
I'm not trying to say he's better than Sprinter Sacre, in fact I'm not trying to say anything, I'm trying to get some sort of handle on how good he might be. I think the answer is very because even a pessimistic view of the form brings him out to a pretty damn good rating.
The counter arguments are obvious. Nothing else handled the ground, they gave him too much rope in front, and so on. However I'm not sure they did (I don't think they would have been much closer if they had tried to go with him anyway) and I think he'll be better on good ground. He is electric fast and a fantastic mover so it is hard to think that a better surface (which all his best form before this is on) will not suit better.
I'm interested to hear other peoples' views because at the moment the 12/1 is tempting me and I would much rather it wasn't!
I'm not trying to say he's better than Sprinter Sacre, in fact I'm not trying to say anything, I'm trying to get some sort of handle on how good he might be. I think the answer is very because even a pessimistic view of the form brings him out to a pretty damn good rating.
The counter arguments are obvious. Nothing else handled the ground, they gave him too much rope in front, and so on. However I'm not sure they did (I don't think they would have been much closer if they had tried to go with him anyway) and I think he'll be better on good ground. He is electric fast and a fantastic mover so it is hard to think that a better surface (which all his best form before this is on) will not suit better.
I'm interested to hear other peoples' views because at the moment the 12/1 is tempting me and I would much rather it wasn't!