Daily Thread- Tuesday 17th April

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Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
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Maidenhead, Berkshire
I am resisting the temptation to put up Tocca Ferro's sibling again tomorrow as he ran a stinker last time but I will be watching with interest as they are convinced that he is much better than he has shown so far.

I am however suggesting a sporting little each way punt on MR JAY DEE 33-1 4.50 Kempton as he has been dropped back to a mark that I think he can win off. The yard banged in a 14-1 winner at the weekend to aid my cause in cyclonics comp so they are in form. Matt Crawley is back on and the horse seems to get on well with Matt, he has won and been placed on him. He is also dropped back in trip which will suit perfectly and has his ground. He really shouldnt be 33-1. I rate Muldoons Picnic as a serious danger and its a very trappy looking race so stakes to a minimum I suggest.
 
Pretty low-key stuff today but one I like at an OK price is Soulard in the 3.00 at Exeter. Soulard switched to the Pipe stable last autumn and immediately given a pair of blinkers and found a couple of decent opportunites, just beaten into 2nd on debut for the yard and then making no mistake over today's C&D in October (Firm ground). He runs off the same mark today, with the same 7lbs claimer on board. Currently 100/30 which seems a decent price, given that Pipe will, I'm sure, have him fit and ready to go.

Good luck to those who dabble.
 
Morning gents... Hope we are all well... Not much to go at today but i like the look of a wee double at Exeter... Nothing outlandish as both are favs but the Hobbs/Johnson combo could take a bit of beating...

Exeter -
3.00 Imperial Circus, 15/8...
and
3.30 Fairoak Lad, 7/2...

Good luck to anybody playing today...<cheers>
 
Nothing for me today. Good luck with your bets.

2000 point: when Most Improved is 9/2 based on basically nothing a horse like Camelot at 5/2 looks like great value which goes to show how ridiculous the 2nd favourites current price is.
 
Quel, not too sure either of them are "value" at the current prices.
Quite like Parish Hall at 18/1 as an e/w alternative......
.... but as we know a 1/100 winner is better "value" than a 100/1 loser when the race is over and done with.

Spring Moon is overdue a win and this could be his day. Trip and ground both fine, improving and the break may well have done him a bit of good.
At 9/2 could back this e/w and have the proverbial "free win bet"!!!

Also think Counting house will run well @ 5/1in the 3.00. So its a place bet on this fella on Betfair ( 3 places ) and lump the winning on Spring Moon in the place market also.

Good luck chaps and chapesses!!!!
 
Afternoon, all. Very poor racing and therefore nothing for me today but I wonder if my regular readers will all be piling on Barney Boy in the ‘lucky last’ at Exeter later on?!?

Good luck to those who do have an old wager though.
 
Timeform rate Neptune Collonges GN win at 166, the highest rated winner ever. Good job he's retired, he'd have the devil of a job trying to win off that mark in handicap company.
 
Worth remembering Neptune Collonges also ran Hold On Julio to 9 lengths giving him a whopping 26lbs. I backed him that day and he was out of it at half way, miles back and scrubbed along, but he didn't half come home well. Also ran Giles Cross to a neck in the National trial at Haydock giving him 19lbs (less Derham's 7 claim)
 
Neptune&#8217;s highest ever official mark was 174. I see meanwhile that on current NH marks Long Run and Kauto Star are still miles clear of almost everything else in the old staying chasing ranks. The old assessor still won&#8217;t seemingly consider that he massively overrated both horses in this terms Betfair Chase and King George VI.
 
Tenure in the Wood Ditton, hopefully better season for SMS this year.

Neptune's effort at Sandown was brilliant, given that he raced in a strange manner.
 
mick the jolly sailor said:
Quel, not too sure either of them are "value" at the current prices.
Quite like Parish Hall at 18/1 as an e/w alternative......
.... but as we know a 1/100 winner is better "value" than a 100/1 loser when the race is over and done with.

Spring Moon is overdue a win and this could be his day. Trip and ground both fine, improving and the break may well have done him a bit of good.
At 9/2 could back this e/w and have the proverbial "free win bet"!!!

Also think Counting house will run well @ 5/1in the 3.00. So its a place bet on this fella on Betfair ( 3 places ) and lump the winning on Spring Moon in the place market also.

Good luck chaps and chapesses!!!!
Click to expand...

That was my point Mick. If a horse is so ridiculously priced at 9/2 as to make a ridiculously priced 5/2 favourite look like value then the bookies are taking us all for mugs.
 
OddDog said:
Worth remembering Neptune Collonges also ran Hold On Julio to 9 lengths giving him a whopping 26lbs. I backed him that day and he was out of it at half way, miles back and scrubbed along, but he didn't half come home well. Also ran Giles Cross to a neck in the National trial at Haydock giving him 19lbs (less Derham's 7 claim)
Click to expand...

Sorry, forgot to add the quote...<doh>

A worthy winner of any big race then with those stats...!!!
 
Quel,

Indeed. Agree with you 100%...and I believe the bookies take us all for mugs everytime an O'Brien, Stoute etc have a maiden winner and try getting us to lump on for next years Derby etc!!!
Funny thing is....there seems to be plenty of people that do. I'm not knocking A.P. wagers....but most definately not my cup of tea.
 
Changed me mind about Counting house and had a win bet.....1.8 just didn't do it for me with there being only 6 runners....so I am talking through my pocket here...

Is it me....or was that a rather strange ride Timmy murphy gave the horse? By that I mean the way he approached, and got away from the last hurdle?
Just watched the race, and a replay on ATR and don't think that was Timothys finest hour!!!
 
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