People said when we had ten left to play they could see us losing 3 games. Only one so far when many feared going to Millwall and Hull. So far: Millwall - 3-2 - WIN Hull City - 0-2 - WIN Doncaster Rovers - 2-0 - WIN Blackpool - 3-0 - LOSS Portsmouth - 2-2 - DRAW Crystal Palace - 0-2 - WIN Reading - 1-3 - LOSS So: 9 points from 12 so far. If we continue with 3 wins from every 4 and then halve that form ito make up the final 2 games of the season, we will have gained 22.5 points from 30. Therefore about 2.2 points a game. Promotion/Title form. An additional 13/14 points from here puts us on 92 points. Which will win us the title. I fully expect West Ham will also drop points, as potentially could Reading, who look dangerous right now. We are not the only team exposed to adverse performances and results. Come on people, bit of perspective. Step back and look at the bigger picture. We will do this. UPDATE: Since Blackpool we have taken 4 points from 9, so basically just under half the available points. 13 points out of 21 after 7 games of the 10 game run-in. Still on course, and not too far to go. 4 points so far and I felt 14 would win the title. With only 9 more to play for I think the title might be a bridge too far, but promotion is still ours to lose. So Far: 4 wins - 1 draw - 2 defeats DTLW
I should also point out this time last year it was all doom and gloom after losing to Rochdale 2-0. Also, last year, about this time, promotion-hopefuls Norwich went and lost 3-0 away to Play-off chasers Swansea. They then went on a run and gained automatic promotion. Sounds similar huh?
This is a good post. We need 12 points from our last 6 games to guarantee automatic promotion. Looking at our fixtures - 4 wins certainly isn't out of the question, but bear in mind the 12 points can also come from dropped points by Reading and West Ham. For example if we beat Portsmouth and Palace in our next 2 games (not that much of a stretch) and West Ham beat Barnsley but lose to Birmingham (also not a stretch) then we'd only need 3 points from our last 4 games to guarantee we go up.
I don't give a monkey's about the stats, but totally agree with keeping our heads together. We will all be celebrating come April 28
If we win the next 3 games, Skates (H), Palace (A), Reading (H), then we will be at a minimum 5 points clear with 3 games to go. I personally think another 6 points will be enough to guarentee promotion. We currently need 12 points but I am fairly sure West Ham will drop at least 6 points out of the last 6 games.
Sorry, missing something. If we win next 3 games, surely we will remain six points above West Ham (assuming they win their 3) or are you allowing for WHU not playing till after the Reading game.... wait a minute...then we'd be 9 points above them till they play...my head hurts.
We are currently 2 points ahead of Reading, if we win our next 2 games and then beat Reading we will be at a minimum 5 points clear of Reading. Could be more if Reading drop points against Leeds and Brighton.
Got you now..was thinking you meant above 3rd spot...obviously I'm letting a little negativity enter. I'm mainly thinking of autos rather than the title. Bad Girl!
Forget West Ham, that ship has sailed. We need 12 points to get automatic promotion, this includes any points dropped by West ham. If they lose two and we win two then its over.
I think we should just do a "Nigel" just concentrate on one gamee at a time. I'm confident we'll do it but certainly woudn't want to bet on when or how many points we will need. Reading have some very tough games on paper and so do West Ham. We appar to have an easier run in but this league has taught us that there are no easy three points. It's in our hands though and not in West Hams. I'd have certaily settled for that a few weeks ago!
It's a fantastic position to be for a team that just came up last season...two games plus GD ahead of third with only 6 games left. We have to face facts: if we don't go up, we don't deserve to because we blew it, but that isn't going to happen.
On a side note...how did we end up with a Saturday and Monday game, whereas Reading have Friday and Tuesday matches.
I don't think the games being when they are is so bad. The Pompey game was always going to be an early kick off on a Saturday for policing reasons. While the fact that the Palace game is on a bank holiday is allowing us to take close to 6 thousand fans away.
If the stats tell us anything its this; The last time we were beaton 3 - 0 at Brighton we followed that up with a 2 - 0win at Notts Forest, a 2 - 0 loss at Leicester and then went on a 12 game unbeaten run. So with 6 games left we should only loose one - not bad.
