Thought it would be good to gather forumites NAPs for the Cheltenham festival i.e. which horse do you think is the best bet at the festival (not the most likely winner, otherwise we'd all have Big Bucks or Quevega ). Also no fancy ante post prices please. Thread should be for strangers to come on the forum looking for good, well thought out tips for the festival. I'll start: Supreme Novices Hurdle - Tetlami. Nicky Henderson's gelding is unbeaten over hurdles and the form of his 2 victories stacks up really well. On hurdles debut (after a 20 month break) he slammed a good field in great fashion, quickening up really well after the last. He beat Black Thunder (won next time out) by 5L with Knight Pass (also won next time out) a further 2 lengths back (albeit conceding 7lbs). Tetlami then went to Kempton for what was effectively a match race with Vulcanite. Whilst the strong-travelling Vulcanite caught the eye and grabbed the attention, Tetlami travelled equally well and put the race to bed in a very professional fashion. With just 2 hurdles races under his belt Tetlami is open to further improvement and connections have remarked that he "only shows you want he wants you to see" which is, apparantly, typical for Daylami offspring. Which brings me to his breeding - stout National Hunt stock from the sire of last year's winner Al Ferof, he also possesses a smart turn of foot as evidenced on his most recent victory in a "bumpers for jumpers" race. He has course form at Cheltenham, having won the traditionally strong New Years Day bumper in 2010 (in which he really powered up the hill in impressive fashion) and for me ticks all the right boxes for the Supreme. If Simonsig goes to the Neptune I strongly suspect Barry Geraghty will be on Tetlami and I expect him to start at around the 8/1 mark, even though 14/1 is still freely available now. There are no doubts about his target and he will be absolutely spot on for the race. What is your NAP of the week and why??
Nice thread Oddy! For me, and this is only my personal opinion, I would have liked Tetlami to have another run over hurdles. That's just me though. My NAP of the festival actually runs in the exact same race. Colour Squadron will run very well for team Hobbs and will love the stiff test he'll get in the Supreme. As a side thought, what do you think of these preview nights? Seems to me like a lot of them tip the same horses, and trainers don't really let on much. Pointless to me, they sort just confirm what we already know....
Something of a waste of time tbh, but it all adds to the spectacle. You'd never get David Pipe telling you his handicap fancies for instance.
Nap - Boston Bob. I've made the case for him many times since he beat Mount Benbulben, Ipsos Du Berlais and Jetson in a four runner grade one in Ireland in December from which every horse that has run has won next time out (including Boston Bob). I'm on for the Neptune at 12's and Albert Bartlett at 8's. His run last time out was pretty much incredible giving weight to everything in horrible conditions to blow the field away with a combination of staying power and a fierce, speedy kick. The second that day, Lyreen Legend, has confirmed the form just yesterday when beating the 142 rated Folsom Blue by 3.5 lengths (could have been more - a very easy win) albeit receiving 3lbs. I'd be very surprised if this isn't gambled heavily in the week leading up to the festival. Good thread Oddy. Gives everyone the chance to nail their colours to the mast and hopefully will cut out after-timers!
Suppose so Zen. My favourite was Alan King's comment on Vendor in the Fred Winter at least he's honest
An Intresting NAP im chucking out there, in the Jonny Henderson Annual Chase; Astracad - He is shortening all the time I have got 10/1 on him but he was as big as 14's
Is this the little known 'Tinkly Tee Tinkly Da Flower arranging Festival' which is held annually the week before the 'Cheltenham Festival'??
Where's Wooly when ya need him? How many days is it now?! Next week's going a be a long week methinks...
NAP: Pearl Swan (7/1 generally, 7/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes and Bet365) One of Paul Nichols many french imports, Pearl Swan showed modest at best form on the flat in France before making his hurdle debut for Paul Nichols under Daryl Jacob at Taunton. A twelve runner all aged Novice Hurdle, the field was littered with outclassed horses (6 of them going off 80-1 or greater), and Pearl Swan finished very strongly to end 4 lengths clear of the now 139 rated Ifyouletmefinish. After that comfortable victory, they ran Pearl Swan in the JCB Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham, in what in my opinion represents the best juvenile form race of the season. A smaller but much more classy field raced, including the current Triumph favourite Grumeti (now rated 143), previous favourite Baby Mix (now rated 149, although arguably not at his best on the day), and Hollow Tree (now rated 142). All the way through the race Pearl Swan sat in dead last, with Ruby motionless a couple of lengths off the field. Over the second last hurdle, the commentator stated that Pearl Swan was '4 or 5 lengths behind the rest', when Ruby hassled him along. Like a hot knife through butter he sliced through the field, finishing ahead of Grumeti by a short head, but going on to be disqualified for leaning over Grumeti in the run-in. I think Pearl Swan could well win the triumph because, with only two runs under his belt, I feel confident that there is more improvement to come. His first two races showed Ruby what tactics are best, and with the great jockey on board, I expect another beautifully timed ride to be forthcoming. I see no reason why Grumeti would reverse form (ignoring the disqualification) again, given that he was beaten, given 3lb and considering that from the second last hurdle to the line, Pearl Swan made up at least 10 lengths on him, and was showing no sign of slowing down. For my money, on the clear form lines of that race, he should be favourite, and whilst 7/1 has shortened up already, I still think it represents excellent value. He still has entries in the Fred Winter and the Supreme. I find it highly unlikely that he would be Fred Winter bound, given the presence of Ulk du Lin and Hinterland. The news that Ranjaan is unavailable to me makes him very likely to run in the Triumph, but as there is no price concession required to get the 7/1 NRNB, probably best to take it anyway, in case he's Supreme bound.
Sir Des Champs in whatever he runs in. Much tougher to find value in the 4 championship races this year. Have a feeling Long Run will be turned over but cannot decide on the winner. Other 3 should go to the favourites.
Nothing original but if: Quevega, Big Bucks, Divers, On The Fringe, Rocky Creek and Hold on Julio all win, I will struggle to have a losing Cheltenham....
Long Run in the Gold Cup. Proper pace in the race and the top stayer in steeplechasing will pick them up and carry them home.
Rubi Light in The Ryan Air. 6/1. Went close last year when 3rd. Improved horse this year. Softer the better for him but will go on any ground. Good luck all.
Interesting that you go for Tetlami Oddy ....... you think that may be the stables "choice" over Darlan? Your post says best horse for the week, not best horses - so I will make mine Darlan in the same race I'm also keen on Hold On Julio and Sea of Thunder and as I know some of the connections, Fruity O'Rooney ew
I think they've been deliberately low key about him reebok. Clearly AP will ride Darlan and I hope that Simonsig goes for the Neptune so that Barry Geraghty will be freed up for Tetlami. To me he's done nothing wrong and has kept improving and I think there is a lot more to come from him. I think Darlan is a bridal horse tbh.
