Wednesday 15th February - Daily Thread

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
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Maidenhead, Berkshire
Interesting runner tomorrow in the 4.20 Southwell in the form of CHANGING LANES 7-1. This one is a winner of a 3m hcap hurdle off a mark of 103 not so long ago and even ran some good races off higher.
Races tomorrow off a mark of 88 so understandably is quite possibly chucked in. Was successful in cheekpieces and thay have not been applied for the last four runs. The form figures are not inspiring but I do still think this one is worth a second glance.
 
Evening stick

1 for me tomorrow, been watching this one for a couple of runs now, (hopefully not got too much seconditis), but think it is due a win

Abigails Angel 5.40 Kempton
 
One that looks well in today is EVELLA 10/1 Southwell 1.20. She won last season off 125 and runs today off of just 110, her recent form is not great but I feel there have been excuses for those runs.
 
7/2 is a dreadful price, really rank. As stated before, she may win, but that price is horrendous in my opinion.
 
In regards Cue Card -

"He's just got a slight knock on his fetlock joint," said Tizzard.

"We thought we'd better let people know with the ante-post betting and everything.

"If the race was next week we'd be fine and there wouldn't have even been a need to mention it, but it's just going to stop him running this week.

"He'll be fine in a few days but we'll have to go straight to Cheltenham now - it was this or nothing."
 
Morning all

Victor Hewgo 13;40 Kelso EW
Kings Grey 14.10 win
Tyrone House 15.10 EW
Serin Gris in the bumper going well at home and should be close


Stay Frosty
 
Morning everyone <ok>

Does Nicky Henderson unleash his Triumph horse today? German-bred Lyvius won twice and was placed twice in 6 starts in ze Vaterland for Peter Schiergen. Both his victories came with plenty of juice in the ground (over 9F and 10F) - here a video of his first victory over 9F at Hamburg - this was only his 2nd race he is in white with a red cap, red stripe on sleeves:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNlB7Q_2l8E&feature=player_embedded#!

He contested some fairly moderate handicaps after that and won his final start in Germany over 10F at Baden Baden where he beat Peter Chapple-Hyam's Times Ahead (rated 72) and took home about 6 grand for winning. So he's not exactly a wonder horse but looks to have stamina and will no doubt have been well schooled for this.

Not sure I'd be wanting to take cramped odds about him today, Absinthe and Kealigolane set a decent standard, so a watching brief <ok>

In the Morebattle you'd expect Simonsig to hose up but I will be doing the Exacta with Steve Gollings Local Hero. He started off really well last season in Novice company and wasn't disgraced to finish 10 lengths 8th in the Triumph Hurdle. I think Marsh Warbler will try and make all today but he really likes the mud to be flying and I think he will be vulnerable to the 2 hold up horses. Simonsig to sweep past and win handsomely but Local Hero to nab 2nd. <ok>

It's A Gimme can get McCoy back amongst the winners at Southwell. It won't be easy giving Baby Shine 7lbs but having beaten Colour Squadron a touch cosily he looks a very decent recruit and victory today should see him heading for the Neptune.

Best of luck everyone <ok>
 
NassauBoard said:
In regards Cue Card -

"He's just got a slight knock on his fetlock joint," said Tizzard.

"We thought we'd better let people know with the ante-post betting and everything.

"If the race was next week we'd be fine and there wouldn't have even been a need to mention it, but it's just going to stop him running this week.

"He'll be fine in a few days but we'll have to go straight to Cheltenham now - it was this or nothing."
Click to expand...

Am I the only one slowly coming round to the idea that he could run a huge race in the Arkle ?
I think he's been forgotten on the back of his Supreme failure but on chase form alone he would hold every chance.
The market is a joke for the Arkle with the front three 2s, 3s and 5s but I'm certain Cue Card shouldn't be a 9/1 shot - Al Ferof would still be my idea of the winner but I have shifted my opinions on Cue Card somewhat....
 
Oddy, Mr Henderson is on record as saying that his 4YO brigade this term aren&#8217;t up to the same level as in the previous few seasons (has don&#8217;t forget won the Triumph Hurdle in 2 out of the past 3 years). Wouldn&#8217;t need to be a world beater to score up at old Kelso although, comparatively speaking, Lyvius didn&#8217;t cost much.

Nassau, well done to Mrs McCain for getting your Cloudy Lane qualified yesterday. Note to other trainers though &#8211; if she can do it why can&#8217;t you?!?

Nothing for me today but its eyecatching that Nige Twiston-Davies runs Sybarite in such a lowly Beginners Chase at Southwell (1.50). There were huge hopes for this at one point and if Sybarite is ever to achieve those aims then he should win by half the track today, methinks.
 
Grizzly said:
Am I the only one slowly coming round to the idea that he could run a huge race in the Arkle ?
I think he's been forgotten on the back of his Supreme failure but on chase form alone he would hold every chance.
The market is a joke for the Arkle with the front three 2s, 3s and 5s but I'm certain Cue Card shouldn't be a 9/1 shot - Al Ferof would still be my idea of the winner but I have shifted my opinions on Cue Card somewhat....
Click to expand...

I would have the same reservations about Cue Card coming up the hill as Sprinter Sacre. Both were pulling double down the hill and round the final bend in the Supreme but were outstayed up the hill by Al Ferof, and I think he will do the same again this year <ok>
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Oddy, Mr Henderson is on record as saying that his 4YO brigade this term aren&#8217;t up to the same level as in the previous few seasons (has don&#8217;t forget won the Triumph Hurdle in 2 out of the past 3 years). Wouldn&#8217;t need to be a world beater to score up at old Kelso although, comparatively speaking, Lyvius didn&#8217;t cost much.
Click to expand...

His form in Germany would back that up Sir Barney - nothing out of the ordinary <ok>
 
Good job he will not have to come off the bridle today Stick <ok>

One I like the look of at a massive price today is DONEGAL 3.35 FAIRYHOUSE

]A very good flat performer at his best (111 rated) and once got within a head of getting the better of Conduit. Hasn't done much since on the level or over hurdles but he has been off the track for 556 days and it is interesting connections are giving him another chance. This is probably because he is a gelding but I still find it interesting returning off the break and running off a mark of just 101. He is currently priced up around 25/1 and I will take a chance E.W at the price
 
Grizzly said:
Am I the only one slowly coming round to the idea that he could run a huge race in the Arkle ?
I think he's been forgotten on the back of his Supreme failure but on chase form alone he would hold every chance.
The market is a joke for the Arkle with the front three 2s, 3s and 5s but I'm certain Cue Card shouldn't be a 9/1 shot - Al Ferof would still be my idea of the winner but I have shifted my opinions on Cue Card somewhat....
Click to expand...

If he had run prior to the festival I would agree, but I do worry that others are going to be stronger than him.
 
OddDog said:
I would have the same reservations about Cue Card coming up the hill as Sprinter Sacre. Both were pulling double down the hill and round the final bend in the Supreme but were outstayed up the hill by Al Ferof, and I think he will do the same again this year <ok>
Click to expand...

Fair point Oddy, but he was niggled to stay with leader before 2 out and got very close to that flight and lost momentum, he didn't lose enough ground to reverse placings with anyone as a result of the error but it did come at a crucial stage of the race.
Of course Al Ferof is a proven battler and you'd love to have him on your side (and he will be !) but Cue Card has since won comfortably over 2f further at Newbury and came within a whisker of beating a proven stayer over 2m 4f in Bobs Worth - that form now looks very good and it could be that stamina is less of an issue for the horse.
The more I look at it the less of a case I can make for Sprinter Sacre, sensible bet would be to lay that one I guess....
 
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