I will prbly be wrong anyway! lol i know the races she has won, she hasnt really beaten much, Tempest River probably the best horse LTO- but nothing much
It's a case of knowing your horses. Pick up 55K in the mares (plus any bets you have to collect)- or place money at best against Big Bucks. Having a go is one thing, but false hope is another. Big Bucks would laugh at her, likewise Hurricane Fly at 2 miles.
Come on Stick there's no way Baby Shine will reach the peaks that Quevega has set and whoever it was that said Quevega avoids stepping up in class to is talking absolute b o l l o c k s. She runs two races a year. One's the Mares race at Cheltenham for an easy 55k. The other's the Irish World Hurdle at Punchestown. That's three grade ones in the last few seasons out of 6 races.
Not saying she will at all, wont come close but she could definately come 2nd or 3rd (not 2nd this year with Oscar whiskey in the race)
With a 10lbs mares allowance. Why not? She's as big if not bigger than most of the boys and gets the bigger allowance nowadays. If I thought she'd ever run against him i'd rather back Quevega each way at 5/1 over BB at 1/2.
Definately a great e/w shout- you would earn alot more backing her e/w in the world hurdle than massive odds on in the mares hurdle- which is she is easily good enough to get in the 1st 3, not beat big bucks but definately in the placings
We all know if Quevega shows up in half decent shape she wins, the only negative every year with her is that we don't see her before the festival, so were relying on her being as good as she was the year before. I think if she was to have a run before and prove her ability is still there, then you would probably be looking at a price around 1/4. As it is you will probably get around 4/6 on the day. Not sure id get involved at that price, but not sure I'd want to oppose her either. I think VLV is going for the World, because the prize money for 2nd in the mares is far less than 2nd in the world. Connections of VLV don't rate Quevega better than BB. The fact Quevega runs in the mares, tells you Willie Mullins doesn't believe she could beat BB, and that's good enough for me. Quevega is a top class mare, but she is no Dawn Run
Finally the price is starting to reflect her chances.... i couldnt believe she was even money until a week ago. That was the rare case of the bookies getting it totally wrong. I still think 11/8 is a steal and wont be around long so if youve got a Laddies account would jump on. Shes shorter on Beftair. Should be a 1/2 shot in my opinion... she might only line up against 4 other mares and non of them would come close to getting her off the bridle.
From a punting point of view this is excellent news as she trades at odds agaist until a month before the race. Mullins is a judge and know exactly how to ready one, all the negative vibes about Hurricane Fly then he comes out and demolishes a top class field, Quevega is the same, she just happens to be a small framed mare who is a little more fragile than many others.
Baby Shine won't fully excel until she goes over fences, Swincombe Flame would run a big race against Quevega and Kentford Grey Lady isn't too bad either. Quevega should win on the bridle, but lets face it, that wouldn't take much for her if she is this wonder"mare" that people state she is. I actually think the field this season could be more interesting than it has in previous years (bar VLV who was interesting pre-festival last year), but it will always lack something on the rest of the festival for me (this and the FW are the weak races in my book)
Nass - I think there's a place for the Mares Hurdle it's just that Quevega is so far ahead of the others it becomes a virtual walkover. Caroles Legacy, VLV and Unaccompanied, if they all lines up against Quevega I think Quevega still wins but it would be a decent enough race and one worthy of a festival event, but the way Quevega won last year (and yes I backed her for quite large at evens) just highlighted everything that is wrong with the expanded festival, winninga race 10 lengths on the bridle really shouldn't happen at Cheltenham. And to furtehr highlight the problem Carlito Brigante did exactly the same two days later in a handicap FFS !!!
The problem I have Grizzly is that its taking mares away from other races, you are not getting a Dawn Run situation anymore, because unless people are ultra brave, they will go the mares only route. Sad really.
The ‘Mares Hurdle’ really in a strange and lopsided heat because following VLV defection you have Quevega on an official mark of 158 and then a huge gap to a bunch of mares rated around the 130-140 mark. This huge gap is reflected by those bookie chappies wagering 8/11 Quevega and then 16/1 bar. It’s now very difficult to name any likely runners beyond Quevega and a couple of other mares and it has the potential to turn into one of the most unappealing and one sided contests ever staged at old Prestbury Park. In fact undoubtedly the ‘Mares Hurdle’ (rather like the Jewsons and the Albert Bartlett) is one of the ‘new’ races that undoubtedly dilutes the quality of the Festival product as without its introduction Quevega would have had to contest either the Champion Hurdle or World Hurdle. No quotes whatsoever re Kaffie and I’ve no idea where she will go next but this mare appears most progressive and could be the one to follow the great Irish mare home.
I agree Nass, but I think the organisers wanted to created a 'Mares championship' but the level of Quevega has led to others defecting to other races - Quevega is really the only one who we'd like to see take her chance in a more established race, I can't see nay of the other runners in the field having any sort of chance in another race. Caroles Legacy came within half a length of winning the old W Hills chase last year having run scared of Quevega so we know Mullins Mare sets a very high standard
That is the problem, it doesn't just detract from the CH and/or WH, its all the handicaps too. Well handicapped mares removed to run in this race, and the best don't run in the CH/WH either. Such a shame.
Why? Back BB for a tenner you return £15. Back Quevega for £5E/W, stake = £10 (same), return = £12.50 when she places. If you assume she's never going to win (which I do) then you'd get more for your money backing Big Bucks. Obviously you may not be assuming that Big Bucks is a banker....
Probably not Quel but the yard think a heck aof a lot of her. That said Lucy thought El Dancer was the best thing since sliced bread. I guess we will find out a lot more tomorrow though whatever the result I understand Cheltenham is not an option this year. Kentford Grey Lady will go well and I think she is an each way bet in the Mares but she is no United and we know what Quvega did to her. On the subject of the World Hurdle I would like to have my say. On most runs these days Big Bucks hits a flat spot in the final mile. The way Quvega travels into a race she could be gone beyond recall by the time Ruby got BB going again. She would get 7lb I think in the WH. She would be the only horse that I can see that would give him a scare. Everyone sees him as invincible but if a horse with Quvega's turn of foot was able to move at the right time then its possible that the outcome may not be the foregone conclusion that many think.
