Hello all, As the festival is coming quickly into sight I think it is about time we started to look at the key bits of form for the handicaps at the festival, and also any horses who we think are being prepped in a generous manner for their attempts at the big races at the festival. I think its important to start with Cheltenham form, and the one I think is an obvious starting point is the Paddy Power Gold Cup that was won by Great Endeavour, who beat Quantitiveasing and Diver's into the places. Great Endeavour is a festival winner (Byrne 2010) and he to me looks to be the sort of horse who can still run to his mark (157) in the top handicaps, but he may also be put into the Ryanair, and he won the PPGC in great style. He ran a belter next time out at Newbury when failing to stay the trip, and then he looked over the top when we saw him at Cheltenham in December. He hasn't been seen since and looks to be going to the festival fresh. Quantitiveasing has improved rapidly this season, finishing second in the PPGC before winning in breathtaking style at HQ in December. He hasn't raced since and has risen to a mark of 153, which could leave him running with a good amount of weight in a handicap at the festival. He at the minute looks to be going to the festival without a prep run, and that is another concern for me. Diver's had a prep run just yesterday and Ferdy Murphy could be playing a blinder with this horse in a bid to get him into a handicap off a lenient mark. He ran a big race in the PPGC, before making a mistake when unseating when he raced in December. He has now had a pipeopener over hurdles and will go to the festival with an all important 2012 run under his belt. He is rated 142 and if he gets into a handicap at the festival, we will be seeing him getting plenty of weight from horses like Quantitiveasing (who he beat at last seasons festival) and that could prove invaluable. Aerial who was fourth home is also one who will probably be entered at the festival, but will be another that Diver's will get a good deal of weight from after he won impressively at Ascot in a stakes race (now rated 149). The form of the PPGC and the profile of Ferdy Murphy's stable make Diver's very interesting at the festival, should he get a run. What formlines interest you most for the festival, and what races would you recommend the Not606 forum to watch back?
Good thread. I have a (kind of) involvement with the Lets Live Racing syndicate so should get some idea of how things are progressing with Divers, I said they should run him in the old B Hills chase (3m handicap chase won by Bensalem last year) - think he runs off 142 which would give him the ideal weight of around 11st. This race is all about Hold on Julio, this one could easily still be 2 stone ahead of the 'capper !
I've been looking at the Tuesday handicaps (as I will be there) and at the moment I'm leaning towards Hold On Julio for the Billy Hill and Bless The Wings. Waiting for the decs though ....................
Hold On Julio holds two entries in the coming weeks, Haydock for the GN trial and Kempton for their good handicap.
Should be in the Gold Cup then. 144 + 28 = 172. It's hardly a secret but look at Sivola De Sivola in the 2m handicap hurdle on Trials Day. Must have a massive chance in the Pertemps.
I have no idea what the plan is with That'lldoboy and if he'll get in anywhere, but the next race he stays on his feet he will win imho.
The main criteria for winning handicaps at the festival is to be a LTO winner, next of course is vital course form and especially festival form. Agree with Nassler, Divers has been set up very nicely and will have a fine chance (Kalahari King from same yard looks ahuge price at 33s fot the Ryanair if he can get him fit again). My main handicappers currently will be Havingotascoobydoo in the Centenary and also Leos Lucky Star in the Grand Annual (given a lousy ride last year and dropped to a nice mark compared to Oiseau de Nuit who will also go well in this race, more to come tomorrow.
I think it is Tom Segal who says that betting in handicap chases at Cheltenham is the biggest minefield in punting as ability and current form are mere minor considerations. He claims that the horse that will win will be the one on the day who gets the most luck in running (the field sizes are usually huge and therefore others so often effect your chances) and quickly gets into the best rhythm re the undulations and the fences. He says run these races 10 times and you would get 10 different results! I would agree, to a large degree, as looking back at the past few Festivals some of the results in the old handicap chases are totally, and I do mean totally, baffling. RV’s advice about a ‘pin’ in these races may well be the best advice, methinks. Focussing on the handicap hurdles I note that Mrs Harrington’s Citizenship is on a €100,000 bonus if he wins the County (or any other heat but the County looks the most likely) so you can guarantee he’ll be giving maximum effort! Meanwhile, I see that Mr Nicholls currently has the 3 co-faves in the race. If Mr Henderson’s A Media Luz behaves herself though and everything was to fall right for her this mare may at last deliver in a quality race. The Coral Cup has been a race that has been good to me over the years and I would agree with what old boy Stick said the other week about Swincombe Flame in this (I hope Featherbed Lane heads to the ‘World Hurdle’ rather than runs in this, incidentally, where I think he is most interesting at massive odds). The ‘Pertemps Final’ has to be the hardest race of the entire term, let alone the Festival, to solve as it usually contains more plots than an Agatha Christie novel so the old ‘pin’ may be needed again. An alternative to this method might be to put your trust in Pip Hobbs’ Volador providing he doesn’t end up out of the old handicap. Finally the ‘Freddie Winter’ will as usual fall to the beast whose true ability has been hidden from the old handicapper the best. Alan King’s Vendor impressed me hugely on his UK debut but I fear he could be clobbered by the assessor as a result and so the Irish raider Chill could pop up at huge odds. Finally going back to the Swincombe Flame / Featherbed Lane formline of the ‘Lanzarote Hurdle’ I think this is exceptional and furthermore think both are still very much underestimated on respective ratings of 129 and 150 (both were ‘only’ put up 6 pounds for these runs). I certainly expect much from both animals in the future. The 3rd and 4th that day (Act of Kalanisi and Well Regarded) also ran respectable races and should be considered when next appearing on the track. Well Regarded should have numerous possibilities for the foreseeable future as he is still a novice.
