Big call Toppy to be having a horse who has only run 3 times over hurdles 170-rated 
I can't help think we're getting a bit carried away with Zarkandar here. OK, we want something to give Hurricane Fly a race, but Zarkandar a 170 horse when he's not even run this season? If we're going to give him an objective rating we can't JUST look at the Triumph form. His victory at Aintree was hard work and, although I would say it has little bearing on Cheltenham I think it has to be taken into account when assessing a potential rating. He had a fair battle with Kumbeshwar that day and prevailed a couple of lengths. Mid-to-high 140s, at best. Nothing behind them to suggest anything different.
The Adonis was his first race so perhaps not that significant, but just for the record he beat Molotof and Kumbeshwar. Molotof won a grade 2 from Pechamecho and is mid-140s, Kumbeshwar has gone chasing.
And so to the oh-so-wonderful Triumph form. Unaccompanied is a lovely, genuine, elegant mare but come on guys, she won a weak Istabraq hurdle and we saw a rare poor ride from Ruby on Thousand Stars who got boxed in at a crucial stage and couldn't get back to her. But even then, this is Thousand Stars we're talking about, who has mopped up in Ireland when HF hasn't been around. He was rated 164 for beating Pittoni 8 lengths in the Morgiana - the same Pittoni who was beaten 75 lengths by Grandouet in the International FFS. I would say Unaccompanied is a 160-ish horse at best which could make her dangerous with the mares allowance. This brings us nicely to the Henderson gelding. Much was made of the way he was tanking along with Celestial Halo before tipping up at Wincanton. OK, he may well have won (but who knows? Celestial Halo loves a battle) AND he was getting 10lbs from the Nicholls runner. Grandouet then went to Haydock where he comfortably accounted for Marsh Warbler and Domtaline. We know that Marsh Warbler needs a bog (he excelled at the weekend against Celestial Halo on heavy) and Domtaline is a 130-something handicapper. Which brings us to the International. Whatever anyone says about Overturn, he does not run to his best at Cheltenham and he has had a long and tiring year. I therefore cannot have him running to something in the mid-160s in the International, and this is backed up by his run in the Christmas Hurdle (where Kempton should suit him better than Cheltenham). Overturn should have been put away after the Fighting Fifth and yet it is his proximity to Grandouet in the International which has resulted in Grandouet's lofty rating. Brampour in 3rd has since been well beaten by Raya Star in the Ladbroke (despite Harry being able to claim his 7) and I don't believe Menorah is a reliable yardstick over hurdles this season after his chase exploits - he is certainly no longer a 162 horse over hurdles.
So Unaccompanied won a dodgy Grade 1 in Ireland, Grandouet beat an over-the-top Overturn in the International and suddenly Zarkandar is a 170 horse? Look further down the field in the Triumph - Sam Winner has done nowt, Sir Pitt has done nowt, Sailors Warn is a 140 horse, as is Third Intention. After that we have Brampour and Smad Place who have looked good this season but they were so far down the field in the Triumph that I can't have them as a form guide. They have certainly progressed from 4 to 5 though.
Zarkandar still has it all to prove and all Nicholls bullish talk and the "breathing operation" mean nothing until he has come out and shown us something on the track. He has the potential to become a 170 horse but at the moment he isn't even 160 for me on bare form. We'll all be a lot cleverer in 3 weeks time of course
I can't help think we're getting a bit carried away with Zarkandar here. OK, we want something to give Hurricane Fly a race, but Zarkandar a 170 horse when he's not even run this season? If we're going to give him an objective rating we can't JUST look at the Triumph form. His victory at Aintree was hard work and, although I would say it has little bearing on Cheltenham I think it has to be taken into account when assessing a potential rating. He had a fair battle with Kumbeshwar that day and prevailed a couple of lengths. Mid-to-high 140s, at best. Nothing behind them to suggest anything different.
The Adonis was his first race so perhaps not that significant, but just for the record he beat Molotof and Kumbeshwar. Molotof won a grade 2 from Pechamecho and is mid-140s, Kumbeshwar has gone chasing.
And so to the oh-so-wonderful Triumph form. Unaccompanied is a lovely, genuine, elegant mare but come on guys, she won a weak Istabraq hurdle and we saw a rare poor ride from Ruby on Thousand Stars who got boxed in at a crucial stage and couldn't get back to her. But even then, this is Thousand Stars we're talking about, who has mopped up in Ireland when HF hasn't been around. He was rated 164 for beating Pittoni 8 lengths in the Morgiana - the same Pittoni who was beaten 75 lengths by Grandouet in the International FFS
. I would say Unaccompanied is a 160-ish horse at best which could make her dangerous with the mares allowance. This brings us nicely to the Henderson gelding. Much was made of the way he was tanking along with Celestial Halo before tipping up at Wincanton. OK, he may well have won (but who knows? Celestial Halo loves a battle) AND he was getting 10lbs from the Nicholls runner. Grandouet then went to Haydock where he comfortably accounted for Marsh Warbler and Domtaline. We know that Marsh Warbler needs a bog (he excelled at the weekend against Celestial Halo on heavy) and Domtaline is a 130-something handicapper. Which brings us to the International. Whatever anyone says about Overturn, he does not run to his best at Cheltenham and he has had a long and tiring year. I therefore cannot have him running to something in the mid-160s in the International, and this is backed up by his run in the Christmas Hurdle (where Kempton should suit him better than Cheltenham). Overturn should have been put away after the Fighting Fifth and yet it is his proximity to Grandouet in the International which has resulted in Grandouet's lofty rating. Brampour in 3rd has since been well beaten by Raya Star in the Ladbroke (despite Harry being able to claim his 7) and I don't believe Menorah is a reliable yardstick over hurdles this season after his chase exploits - he is certainly no longer a 162 horse over hurdles. So Unaccompanied won a dodgy Grade 1 in Ireland, Grandouet beat an over-the-top Overturn in the International and suddenly Zarkandar is a 170 horse? Look further down the field in the Triumph - Sam Winner has done nowt, Sir Pitt has done nowt, Sailors Warn is a 140 horse, as is Third Intention. After that we have Brampour and Smad Place who have looked good this season but they were so far down the field in the Triumph that I can't have them as a form guide. They have certainly progressed from 4 to 5 though.
Zarkandar still has it all to prove and all Nicholls bullish talk and the "breathing operation" mean nothing until he has come out and shown us something on the track. He has the potential to become a 170 horse but at the moment he isn't even 160 for me on bare form. We'll all be a lot cleverer in 3 weeks time of course
