Big call Toppy to be having a horse who has only run 3 times over hurdles 170-rated I can't help think we're getting a bit carried away with Zarkandar here. OK, we want something to give Hurricane Fly a race, but Zarkandar a 170 horse when he's not even run this season? If we're going to give him an objective rating we can't JUST look at the Triumph form. His victory at Aintree was hard work and, although I would say it has little bearing on Cheltenham I think it has to be taken into account when assessing a potential rating. He had a fair battle with Kumbeshwar that day and prevailed a couple of lengths. Mid-to-high 140s, at best. Nothing behind them to suggest anything different. The Adonis was his first race so perhaps not that significant, but just for the record he beat Molotof and Kumbeshwar. Molotof won a grade 2 from Pechamecho and is mid-140s, Kumbeshwar has gone chasing. And so to the oh-so-wonderful Triumph form. Unaccompanied is a lovely, genuine, elegant mare but come on guys, she won a weak Istabraq hurdle and we saw a rare poor ride from Ruby on Thousand Stars who got boxed in at a crucial stage and couldn't get back to her. But even then, this is Thousand Stars we're talking about, who has mopped up in Ireland when HF hasn't been around. He was rated 164 for beating Pittoni 8 lengths in the Morgiana - the same Pittoni who was beaten 75 lengths by Grandouet in the International FFS . I would say Unaccompanied is a 160-ish horse at best which could make her dangerous with the mares allowance. This brings us nicely to the Henderson gelding. Much was made of the way he was tanking along with Celestial Halo before tipping up at Wincanton. OK, he may well have won (but who knows? Celestial Halo loves a battle) AND he was getting 10lbs from the Nicholls runner. Grandouet then went to Haydock where he comfortably accounted for Marsh Warbler and Domtaline. We know that Marsh Warbler needs a bog (he excelled at the weekend against Celestial Halo on heavy) and Domtaline is a 130-something handicapper. Which brings us to the International. Whatever anyone says about Overturn, he does not run to his best at Cheltenham and he has had a long and tiring year. I therefore cannot have him running to something in the mid-160s in the International, and this is backed up by his run in the Christmas Hurdle (where Kempton should suit him better than Cheltenham). Overturn should have been put away after the Fighting Fifth and yet it is his proximity to Grandouet in the International which has resulted in Grandouet's lofty rating. Brampour in 3rd has since been well beaten by Raya Star in the Ladbroke (despite Harry being able to claim his 7) and I don't believe Menorah is a reliable yardstick over hurdles this season after his chase exploits - he is certainly no longer a 162 horse over hurdles. So Unaccompanied won a dodgy Grade 1 in Ireland, Grandouet beat an over-the-top Overturn in the International and suddenly Zarkandar is a 170 horse? Look further down the field in the Triumph - Sam Winner has done nowt, Sir Pitt has done nowt, Sailors Warn is a 140 horse, as is Third Intention. After that we have Brampour and Smad Place who have looked good this season but they were so far down the field in the Triumph that I can't have them as a form guide. They have certainly progressed from 4 to 5 though. Zarkandar still has it all to prove and all Nicholls bullish talk and the "breathing operation" mean nothing until he has come out and shown us something on the track. He has the potential to become a 170 horse but at the moment he isn't even 160 for me on bare form. We'll all be a lot cleverer in 3 weeks time of course
I don't think Paul Nicholls as been that bullish to be fair, He seemed pleasantly suprised at what Zarkandar achieved last year. He took a while to get over being gelded and won 3 from 3 over hurdles he hasn't put a foot wrong and he can only beat what turns up on the day. He was impressive at Kempton and Cheltenham showing a decent turn of foot in both. I like Festival form and he's proved he can tank up that hill pulling double like he did in the Triumph. It looked like he was flogged to beat Kumbeshwar at Aintree but he looked over the top that day a little on the skinny side to Me like the race had come too soon and it probably had. Nicholls as reported him to be a more 'fuller and stronger' horse this year he's had a breathing op which surely can't harm his chances can it? Hes happy with his prep and like Zen as said hes not really said much more than that. I'd like to see Paul Nicholls and the ditcheat team win a Champion Hurdle he's too good a trainer not to... Weather he can mix it with Hurricane Fly is a different matter, The only negative I can see against the Fly at the moment is the fact we haven't see him this year this time last year he'd been out twice in the Hatton Grace and Festival Hurdle and he improved with every run if you look at the form he beat Solwhit by further in all 3 races, He arrived at Cheltenham at the top of his game and throughly put the field to the sword weather he's going to be same again at Cheltenham this year is debatable and he's no means a certainty. He's very much vunerable on a seasonal re-appearance as Solwhit as proved in the past thats the reason Im happy to oppose him in the Irish Champion with Unaccompanied who as had a couple of runs already. It's going to take a good run from the Fly to regain his crown at Cheltenham I feel as I think its an hotter renewal this year. As for Zarkandar we didn't see him until the back end of February last year and look what he did at Cheltenham. I don't think the fact We haven't see Zarkandar yet is a negative because it seems Paul Nicholls is happy to follow a similar route as last year...
I think it's a bit of a myth about the Fly improving with every race last season Istabraq - certainly his official ratings don't suggest it. There was also a change of tactics from Solwhit. In the Hatton's Grace they kicked on with Solwhit coming into the staight but HF picked him up with ease after the last. In the Festival Hurdle Russel tried to go the inside on Solwhit but got boxed in. Nevertheless he made no inroads into HF's lead when he saw daylight. In the Irish Champion Hurdle Davy Russel tried to track HF but the writing was on the wall coming to the last with Paul Townend motionless and Russel pushing away. I would say HF was equally dominant in all 3 races and couldn't say he necessarily improved from the first to the third. I'm confident Mullins will have him spot on for the Irish and English Champion Hurdle races
I hope he is because I also like to see a Champ re-appear and if there is an horse in the race to beat Hurricane Fly at Cheltenham then surely beating a on-form Hurricane Fly would be better than people coming out after '' Hurricane Fly didn't run his race '' Im not saying there is anything guarenteed to beat Hurricane Fly but I do like Zarkandar... I did think Hurricane Fly improved with every run last year, As You'd expect him to do. Thats just My opinion...
I think Zarkandar on known form is close to 160 Oddy. My 170 is based purely on potential. I understand your query of the Triumph form- I would lay Unaccompanied for the Champ Hurdle until the cows came home, as you are right she is talented but perhaps a somewhat fortunate winner in Ireland, but she is good and as you say, a 160-ish horse. Grandouet has shown smart form since the Triumph (though granted he hasnt faced a big gun as such), and ran his race at Cheltenham but Zarkandar had all the answers with his strong finish, and I like the way he responds to pressure and really covers the ground. Grandouet and Unaccompanied for me will not go anywhere near to winning the Champion Hurdle, but that is not to detract from their abilities- both are 160, with Grandouet the slightlly better of the two, and they range somewhere between around 155-163 ish for my money. The key for me is the realisation that the Zarkandar you saw last year was a raw horse with fitness problems and who 'refused to jump a twig' when they started his regime. He went to the Adonis for racecourse experience and no expectation of winning (was expected to be put away after that_, and was then given his well-earned Triumph entry where it must be remembered, he was 2nd choice of the yard against Sam Winner, yet travelled really well off a quick pace and showed a real willingness to run on strongly up the Cheltenham hill. (course form is an important bonus). His jumping was improving, he is very quick between his hurdles, and if we trust Nicholls, he has benefited from the breathing op where he no longer makes a noise on the gallops (same comment applied to Kauto Star when Nicholls spoke in the run up to the Betfair Chase). On ratings and known form, can Zarkandar trouble Hurricane Fly? Can he boat. But in my humble opinion I just think the context of Zarkandars performance last season really needs highlighting. He has *touch wood* had a simpler preparation, he is warming up at the right time, and IF he can improve on last seasons performances, then he has a chance, I say a chance, of possibly being a contender like Peddlers Cross last year, running to around 170 to give the Hurricane some sort of race. Zarkandar is a lightly raced horse and he will still be lightly raced come the end of this season, so personally I think he will be better next season. But as far as raw potential goes, no one impressed me more last season and I do suspect an air of quiet confidence from the yard. All that said though, I think Hurricane Fly will win doing handsprings and absolutely dominate this field if Spirit Son is indeed ruled out. 1.Hurricane Fly. 2. Zarkandar Dist: 5L I really do rate Zarkandar though as a horse with some potential, and I suspect he will be a clear 2nd, running clear of the chasing pack but making no inroads against a Hurricane Fly who will be on the bridle coming to 2 out. He is leagues above, and for the sake of the stature of the Champion Hurdle, lets hope he is fit and on top form come March 13th so we get a true answer. So in a nutshell: Zarkandar heaps of raw ability, improvement expected. But not enough to trouble HF.
I agree he is the one that has the most potential in the race Toppy. Do you think it a strange choice of prep race? Why isn't he going for soemthing like the Kingwell?
It can be seen as a little bizarre mate, yes but.... It has always been the plan to bring him out in January though so there are no negatives on that front. I think possibly they just realised his mark was more than fair and that he could take a nice prize whilst at the same time coming on a lot more for reappearance. I think they are looking to do exactly the same as their plan with Brampur early this season- exploit the handicaps as you know he is better than that (he took a £27k and a £57k pot in two races), and if Zarkandar won this £87k pot for the Betfair hurdle, that would be his biggest career earning to date. Bear in mind that on official figures, Zarkander would be receiving 10lb from Brampour, and a stone from Rock On Ruby and Celestial Halo. When you see it in the cold light of day like that, if we are talking about a horse capable of making the Champion Hurdle places, its a ****ing marvellous opportunity to win a nice prize whilst bringing him on
If you could trust the fact he will run then it's very tempting to lump on at 4s for the Betfair Hurdle ...........................
I cant see him not running in this, nicholls will want to give him a run before cheltenham and he always said if ready this will be it so I cant see him not running it!
I'm toying with the idea. Now that I have seen his weight etc, it does really tempt me as I think its just a great bit of placing for him. Winnable race, nicely handicapped, big prize on offer. Its one of those where you will either look genius or a mug. And the bookmakers offering that sort of a price makes me wonder somewhat. That said- I wonder if they thought he'd go elsewhere (they opened him at 8/1 fav to win this race I think ) and Paddy Power are now down to 10/3, so they are obviously taking note of the money coming for him and cutting the odds.
The Kingwell seems the obvious alternative - not sure what the pot there is (won't be as much as the Betfair) but I think he could win that one just as easy and maybe an easier race, despite his "feather" weight in the Betfair?
Has this race had a big impact on the Champion Hurdle in recent years ? Ground is often bottomless at Haydock so conditions will be very different at Cheltenham, has this race been a good pointer in recent seasons ?
Don't believe so Grizzly, at least not as far as I can remember. Race is at Newbury though not Haydock Re the Kingwell, Mille Chief took home just shy of 40 Grand for winning last year.
Ah it's the old Totesport Trophy - Recession Proof took it last year and carried off 34 Grand - so the Kingwell is more valuable. I therefore don't trust the "let's win a nice pot along the way" story. Kingwell surely won't be that competitive?
The Totesport was rearranged last year though (after the electrocution incident) so was far less valuable. Get Me Out Of Here won 85k for winning in 2010. So the Betfair (now the most valuable Handicap Hurdle in Europe) will be worth far far more than the Kingwell - well over double. I should think the Betfair will be pushing the 100k barrier. I think it looks the ideal opportunity for him and a fine bit of placement from Paul Nicholls.
Big worry for me is that Zarks target is the champion hurdle! Will he be 110% fit for this... Will they cut him in 2... I would proceed with caution
More money today for Zarkandar (down to 3s in places), despite having 8s EW I can see him running a very good race and placing and the Nicholls team still feeling very happy Mr Nicholls has always stated there is only ONE race that matters so will Ruby be hard on him? Soldatino and Empire Levant (possibly) are the dangers
2nd season chasers/hurdlers normally do well in handicaps before progressing to the 'top' table. I will try to look at the weights for this today, could be interesting
