Betfair Hurdle

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Zenyatta

Zenyatta

Active Member
Apr 27, 2011
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I don't think we have a thread on this race as yet but I think it is about time that we did after Paul Nicholls said a few days ago that Zarkandar was on track for the race: "I have some good news for those who have already backed Zarkandar for the UK's richest handicap hurdle, The Betfair Hurdle, at Newbury on February 11. The horse had his racecourse gallop this week, and went very nicely. So Newbury is now very much the plan." Story

That is cracking news as far as I'm concerned because I really fancy him for the Champion Hurdle and consequently think he is lobbed in here off of 151. Celestial Halo will run so the weights will not change. Zarkandar will carry 10-12 which means he will be getting a stone from horses that Nicholls has stated that he is better than. Furthermore he will not have to concede anymore than 12lbs to the rest. I am convinced that he is at the very least a stone well in and quite possibly more, and would be very surprised indeed if anything else was similarly well handicapped.

Nicky Henderson was absolutely livid that the handicapper put Darlan up 9lbs for his win at Taunton and he now receives just 5lbs from Zarkandar. The fact that he remains second favourite is a massive boost to Zarkandar's chances because there is simply not a chance that Darlan is as well handicapped.

Soldatino is the probable Henderson first string but his Triumph form looks decidedly weak compared to Zarkandar and he receives only 3lb.

Raya Star won the Ladbroke in unsuitable conditions but was no match for Rock On Ruby and Empire Levant at Newbury in the Gerry Fielden. He is up 7lbs since Newbury and whilst he probably has further scope with that mark I cannot believe he is as well handicapped as I think Zarkandar is.

Sire De Grugy was well beaten in a handicap at Chepstow, which could be forgiven because of the desperate ground, but his previous 3rd to Topolski at Aintree doesn't look too sharp either.

Olofi has threatened to win one of these but has nothing like the scope of Zarkandar and will be out of the weights.

Bobby Ewing is a dark horse with his last racecourse appearance a comfortable defeat of Menorah. He could easily shake it up but will need to be top drawer to beat the selection.

Recession Proof won the race last year but has only raced once since in the Supreme. Rated 146 he receives just 5lb from Zarkandar and I am convinced that Zarkandar is significantly more superior than that would suggest.

Final Approach might be capable of better but he will need a career best to win this.

Get Me Out Of Here won the race a couple of seasons back but has been tried over further this season. I am sure that Zarkandar is a better 2m Hurdler than him and they race off the same weight here.

Rock On Ruby will not run.

Empire Levant won ridiculously easily at Newbury before finding only stablemate Rock On Ruby too good in the Gerry Fielden. He has gone up 12lbs since but that looks more than fair and it appears as if Nicholls would agree, nominating him as his bet for the Festival in the County Hurdle, suggesting that he thinks he has a decent mark. He looks the main danger to me.

Celestial Halo is unbeaten in handicaps but I would be amazed if he could concede a stone to his better fancied stablemate.

Ciceron is back up to 136 and is probably in the handicappers grip once again, and will race from out of the handicap too.

Conclusion

There are a few others but I think the result is very simple indeed. I would be absolutely astonished if Zarkandar couldn't win off what looks an exceedingly generous mark. 9/2 looks a good price seeing as he can only get shorter. I fancy that stablemate Empire Levant is the main danger with a 12lbs rise looking more than fair for his Newbury efforts. He is capable of better and a weight of 10-1 looks very nice.

Zarkandar - Max Win - 9/2
Empire Levant - Saver - 18/1 EW (I have backed him on Betfair at 22.0 also in the expectation that I will be able to lay off)
 
Is he really 9/2 Zen? Christ I thought he would be 6/4 or 15/8 in the early book. That does look tempting ............................
 
Zen hope you have back Empire Levant for county hurdle? Was 25's in to 20's and 16's with most bookies? But like you have had abit of 9/2 on Zarkandar cant see anything really beating him, only reason he was that price is the possiblity of him not running in it after what nicholls said but I think he is now penned in to run! So that price is like printing money!
 
I haven't backed Empire Levant for the County Woolcombe. If you got the price then fair dos but it's not for me backing a horse in a handicap that is likely to run again.

Zarkandar was 8/1 initially with the doubts about his participation but now Nicholls has said he'll be ready in time I can't see the 9/2 lasting too long.

It looks a fabulous opportunity to fill (or empty) the coffers before Cheltenham.
 
Zenyatta said:
I haven't backed Empire Levant for the County Woolcombe. If you got the price then fair dos but it's not for me backing a horse in a handicap that is likely to run again.

Zarkandar was 8/1 initially with the doubts about his participation but now Nicholls has said he'll be ready in time I can't see the 9/2 lasting too long.

It looks a fabulous opportunity to fill (or empty) the coffers before Cheltenham.
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Fair do's, it was only a small ante post just coz nicholls said if he had 1 ante post bet on any of his horses he pointed him out!!
 
Zenyatta said:
No. I was tempted but decided better of it considering the doubts about his participation. Obviously an extremely poor shout now! <doh>
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Indeed it was, I was the same but decided against it for that reason. I had learnt from my mistakes in the past of backing horses that havent turned up lol oh well you win some, lose some! 9/2 will still be good come the day!
 
You could do a lot worse than back Celestial Halo e/w at 20/1 .................................... also appears a guaranteed runner and giving weight away doesn't seem to bother him.

BTW - looking at the other horses in the race, Zarkandar can hose up by 10 lengths and I still wouldn't back him off level weights against the Fly <ok>
 
If hes 9/2 I'd absolutely snap that price up. Very generous odds. The Triumph form should hold up here though and I'd be amazed like you Zen if Zarkandar doesn't go to Cheltenham unbeaten over hurdles!

Raya Star looks dangerous at 10-0. He'd be my E/W pick...

Anyone know what the prize fund for the Betfair Hurdle is?
 
9/2 Zarkandar. Who'd have thought. I suppose it's possible that, as he's being aimed at the Champion Hurdle, he might run a cracking race to finish 2nd only to discover "He'll have come on a stone for that".
 
Am on ZARKANDA for the Betfair hurdle as well Zen, was told a few weeks back that it was his target and got on at 6s & 5s.
 
At 9/2 I think you have to be willing to take a chance on Zarkandar.


Make no mistake, the race is aimed at getting him spot on for Cheltenham, so he'll be about 90% fit only, and I think that is factored in to his price.




He is a better horse than his official mark, his form has been franked really well, his preparation has been much smoother this season, and Paul Nicholls thinks the breathing operation has helped him even more. He is probably a 160 horse and I think that means he is well in here. 9/2 is fair, providing he turns up.
 
TopClass said:
He is probably a 160 horse.
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At the very least I would have thought. Celestial Halo and Rock On Ruby are rated 165, Brampour is rated 162. Zarkandar is better than all of them surely? Nicholls certainly thinks so.

I expect him to win this well and be 7/2 2nd favourite for the Champion. 9/2 is an absolute steal and must be worth the chance. He must be nearer 2/1 or even shorter come race time.
 
Yep I agree Zen. 160 is just a precautiionary rating but I suspect he will be looking at close to 170 with the strength of the Triumph form and some improvement expected.
 
Am I just being a bit too cynical by questioning why he's available at 9/2 when it's obvious he's at least 10lbs well in but most probably 15lbs in front of Phil Smith.

How often do those horrible bookie crappies gift the nation a very early or slightly late Christmas present?

I can't see any other winner if he turns up but I'm cautious about this one.
 
TopClass said:
Yep I agree Zen. 160 is just a precautionary rating but I suspect he will be looking at close to 170 with the strength of the Triumph form and some improvement expected.
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I think so too. His Triumph form is excellent and he won it easily in my opinion.

Dare I say it, I actually think he might be capable of shaking up Hurricane Fly. He will need to be very good indeed to beat him but I think he can give him a race. I like how Nicholls is quietly confident. I am coming to the conclusion that he is only over-bullish when he feels he has to convince people (maybe including himself). When he knows something he seems happier to let the horse do the talking. He's not ranting and raving about Zarkandar, just informing, and quietly going about his business. I like that. <cheers>
 
Zenyatta said:
At the very least I would have thought. Celestial Halo and Rock On Ruby are rated 165, Brampour is rated 162. Zarkandar is better than all of them surely? Nicholls certainly thinks so.

I expect him to win this well and be 7/2 2nd favourite for the Champion. 9/2 is an absolute steal and must be worth the chance. He must be nearer 2/1 or even shorter come race time.
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Oh my lord this is a perfect example of the flaws in the rating system. Celestial Halo would not run Hurricane Fly to within 8lbs if they both ran in the same race and ran to the best of their ability.
 
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