I love playing around with stats

[Cest Advocaat]

Just bored this morning and over the coffee had a bit play around with some stats. Its not a points scoring exercise just some facts to play around with. Interesting or not?

In blocks of 5 games (usual 5 game form guide) this is how both the mags and our season have panned out since August.

SAFC

5pts
5pts
4pts
3pts (only 2 games)

Mags

9pts
13pts
4pts
3pts (2 games so far)

Last 5 form games

SAFC

6 points - 2 wins from 3 games for MoN

Mags

2 points - 2 draws

Last 10 games

SAFC - 11 points
Mags - 12 points

Goals scored/Against

SAFC - 19/19
Mags - 23/22

Its has been the 22 points in the first 10 games that has made the mags season what it is and emphasises if required, the vital need to get off to a good start in this league, in order to get a foot hold early on. Both clubs have similar scoring and conceding stats all season (no surprise they have scored more but interestingly our defense is better) and goal difference is 1 different only.

Its no guarantee of future results of course but I think its really interesting that our perception is of a lousy season and theirs is of a decent one and yet in the last 10 games, only 1 point separates both clubs.

For us MoN has made the difference in perception 100% and with 6 points from 3 games, he has turned the world upside down as far as that goes too. We had 11 points from 14 games when he took over and only 3 games later we have now have 17 from 17 games. Pardew, with 2 points in 6 games now, will be keen to address that issue for sure and as we over here are only too aware what an effect 10 games or so without a win can do to confidence on a brittle thin squad, I'm sure he does too.

Not Einstein stuff or Stephen Hawking material I admit but nevertheless, I think its interesting all the same to look at what is actually happening, as opposed sometime to our perceptions of that reality.

 

[Chappaz]

6 threads about Newcastle on page 1 of the Sunderland board

None of us mags actually have to say anything in retort. This simple embarrassing fact, for as long as it exists, for every second of every minute of the day, is a constant and unwavering self-wum.

 

[Commachio]

6 threads about Newcastle on page 1 of the Sunderland board

None of us mags actually have to say anything in retort. This simple embarrassing fact, for as long as it exists, for every second of every minute of the day, is a constant and unwavering self-wum.

There was a feir few about us on your board yesterday....yes or no?

 

[Hairyhaggis]

After Xmas aswell is when we need to pick up points against teams like QPR, Swansea, Bolton, Wigan and Norwich. After the New Year is when all these newly promoted teams start to see a decline in form... look at Blackpool last year. Flying high before New Year, and relegated just 6 months later. We need to knuckle down and focus and not lose concentration, because this is when we can take advantage of tiring legs and the honeymoon period being over for these teams, and those down the bottom of the table.

Interesting stats there Cest... would be very interesting if you did this again at the end of the year, see how we compare with the skunks then!

 

[CyprusMackem]

Strange. I thought this thread was about stats.

 

[MackemsRule]

6 threads about Newcastle on page 1 of the Sunderland board

None of us mags actually have to say anything in retort. This simple embarrassing fact, for as long as it exists, for every second of every minute of the day, is a constant and unwavering self-wum.

Yet our local closet Mackem just can't help himself, commenting.

 

[talcnturnip]

He's still trying to dig himself out of the hole he dropped in with Cests bubble bursting thread.

 

[Somebodys pinched my sombrero]

He's still trying to dig himself out of the hole he dropped in with Cests bubble bursting thread.

I think there were too many holes dug in that thread..........

 

[talcnturnip]

Yes it was a bit Somme like at times and very funny at times as well.

 

[Commachio]

I love playing around with stats

The first,,the 10,000th and now the 20,000th goals in the prem.....all scored by English players.

 

[Cheik the room]

I agree that just shows that our teams are pretty even, we just over performed at the start of the season. It gives me confidence that Sunderland aren't good enough to make my sig come back to bite me Cest

 

[Bizarreknives]

6 threads about Newcastle on page 1 of the Sunderland board

None of us mags actually have to say anything in retort. This simple embarrassing fact, for as long as it exists, for every second of every minute of the day, is a constant and unwavering self-wum.

Why do people persist on commenting on how many of this and how many of bloody that, it's a football forum, it's for people to talk about football. We will talk about Newcastle because they are a football team and obviously our close neighbours.
It's not embarrassing, it's Football.

 

[Cest Advocaat]

I agree that just shows that our teams are pretty even, we just over performed at the start of the season. It gives me confidence that Sunderland aren't good enough to make my sig come back to bite me Cest

That 22 point 10 game start has been the massive difference Cheik and has created a big gap early on. That we have come back a bit in the last 3 or 4 games gives me heart that we can compete again but as I have said many times, the double digit gap should not be caught really.

I think it will be touch and go by the end of May as these stats show a very evenly matched squads, with one getting a good start and the other still in the blocks after 10 games. By the time the 2 teams meet at the beginning of March, I do however expect the gap to be in single figures and maybe only 1 to 2 games in it.

Our next 6 games are: Everton (h), Man city (h), Wigan (a), Chelsea (a), Swansea (h) & Norwich (h) - 4 at home and 2at away

Newcastles next 6 are: Bolton (a), Liverpool (a), Man Utd (h), QPR (h), Fulham (a) & Blackburn (a) - 4 away and 2 at home

I would suggest that at the end of that sequence of fixtures the 2 clubs will be very close together in terms of points.

 

[Makemstine Roger]

and for a while they wont have their goal machine Ba

 

[cabluigi]

Our next 6 games are: Everton (h), Man city (h), Wigan (a), Chelsea (a), Swansea (h) & Norwich (h) - 4 at home and 2at away

Newcastles next 6 are: Bolton (a), Liverpool (a), Man Utd (h), QPR (h), Fulham (a) & Blackburn (a) - 4 away and 2 at home

I would suggest that at the end of that sequence of fixtures the 2 clubs will be very close together in terms of points.

You have some fairly winnable games coming up like. I reckon you'll take about 10 points, while I can see us getting 7 at most from those game. Perhaps none before new year

 

[Cest Advocaat]

You have some fairly winnable games coming up like. I reckon you'll take about 10 points, while I can see us getting 7 at most from those game. Perhaps none before new year

I think thats a pretty fair assessment and I'd settle for a 10 point haul in the next 6 games probably as much as you would the 7.

How do you reckon you will fare without Ba and Tiote? Especially Ba who is in blistering form and scoring some belters. When do they actually go off the the ACN or ANC (whichever way you want to say it).

 

[Chappaz]

I think thats a pretty fair assessment and I'd settle for a 10 point haul in the next 6 games probably as much as you would the 7.

How do you reckon you will fare without Ba and Tiote? Especially Ba who is in blistering form and scoring some belters. When do they actually go off the the ACN or ANC (whichever way you want to say it).

It sounds like we're trying to delay when they go, presumably to get more time to bring in replacements, such as a new striker.

 

[Cest Advocaat]

It sounds like we're trying to delay when they go, presumably to get more time to bring in replacements, such as a new striker.

I dont think you will bring in a new striker when you have Best, Lovenkrands and the 2 Amadonkey brothers still on the books as that would mean 6 strikers at the end of February when Ba returns. Not feasible unless 2 of them go out.

More likely you will bring in a defender with the money available.

 

[Chappaz]

I dont think you will bring in a new striker when you have Best, Lovenkrands and the 2 Amadonkey brothers still on the books as that would mean 6 strikers at the end of February when Ba returns. Not feasible unless 2 of them go out.

More likely you will bring in a defender with the money available.

Lovenkrands is probably off soon, and Sammy Ameobi is seen as a winger now, so that's only 3 really.

We gave Maiga a medical (which he failed) so we obviously have some intent to buy someone.

 

[Cheik the room]

That 22 point 10 game start has been the massive difference Cheik and has created a big gap early on. That we have come back a bit in the last 3 or 4 games gives me heart that we can compete again but as I have said many times, the double digit gap should not be caught really.

I think it will be touch and go by the end of May as these stats show a very evenly matched squads, with one getting a good start and the other still in the blocks after 10 games. By the time the 2 teams meet at the beginning of March, I do however expect the gap to be in single figures and maybe only 1 to 2 games in it.

Our next 6 games are: Everton (h), Man city (h), Wigan (a), Chelsea (a), Swansea (h) & Norwich (h) - 4 at home and 2at away

Newcastles next 6 are: Bolton (a), Liverpool (a), Man Utd (h), QPR (h), Fulham (a) & Blackburn (a) - 4 away and 2 at home

I would suggest that at the end of that sequence of fixtures the 2 clubs will be very close together in terms of points.

By my predictions I have you to get 8 points and us to gather 6. I'd bite your hand off if you offered me that now.

I dont think you will bring in a new striker when you have Best, Lovenkrands and the 2 Amadonkey brothers still on the books as that would mean 6 strikers at the end of February when Ba returns. Not feasible unless 2 of them go out.

More likely you will bring in a defender with the money available.

Piece in the echo today, without saying it Pardew basically gave away that a striker won't come in. Talked about how it's nearly impossible to get one in January, and Ameobi and Best can do the business.