To say that classic trials to date in France, Ireland and Britain have been inconclusive would be an understatement. The best French candidates mostly fluffed their lines last week (although Karl Burke’s Evolutionist enhanced hers), the Ballydoyle candidates mostly disappointed last week (is Pierre Bonnard another Epsom horse that flopped like City of Troy and Auguste Rodin beforehand?) and the 50/1 shot at HQ this week was clearly not the expected result. So is this yet another year where the horses going straight to the big races are going to take home the spoils?
A big field lines up for the Fred Darling Stakes (1.25) but quite a number of them need to have improved markedly on their racecourse form to date. Trying to assess some of them looks pointless with their limited form. Tom Clover’s Silenciosa would probably be shorter odds if she were at a bigger yard; however, her win on the kitty litter tells us nothing. Similarly Domina Ignis won her only start on the kitty litter and has now been fitted with a hood, making me think that perhaps they are here to find out whether she is good enough to compete at this level. With K Sarra whatever will be will be. She is a sister to Pride of Arras and her kitty litter win was over a mile, suggesting a future at middle distances. Zooming did all she needed to collecting a novice race at HQ and her big yard presumably think that she is good enough to take her chance here over the same trip. Stimulative Trip won her only start over course and distance last June but it has to be a concern that she was not seen afterwards and she may want further. Blingy’s Sister ran four times, most recently when not handling the track at HQ in the Oh So Sharp Stakes. She might prove the yard stick for the form today if she has trained on. Ellusive Butterfly has racecourse fitness, winning a maiden on the kitty litter in January and finishing second to Spinning Lizzie over a mile trying to give that one 4lb. The concern with both that pair is the drop back to seven furlongs today. The hood has been fitted to Princess Petrol and her second in the Group 3 Sweet Solera reads well although the form of her run in the Group 2 Prix d’Aumale was not helped by the front two in France last week. Splish Splash steps up a furlong after finishing her juvenile campaign with a good Listed race third, form that was boosted by the runner up winning the Nell Gwyn at 50/1, so she is likely to outrun her odds today. Sukanya is quite exposed after five starts. After a second in a Leopardstown Listed race, she was second last in the Group 2 Rockfel, a race where favourite Touleen lost her unbeaten record when only fifth. The Burrows filly may not have handled the HQ track that day but I wonder whether she might now want further than seven furlongs (all three juvenile starts) and could this be her warm up race for the Guineas (or a trip to the Pouliches) or to decide if they switch to an Oaks campaign? Figjam has not run beyond six furlongs yet and won a Leicester novice at that trip in October. Before that she was a respectable fourth in the Group 3 Firth of Clyde Stakes at Ayr, won by Richard Fahey’s Catching The Moon. The Fahey filly has not been seen since that day in September and steps up a furlong too. The jockey booking today (Ryan Moore) I think is significant and she will be ready to race so she would be my idea of the winner if I was looking for a bet. In the trainer’s SportingLife column, he states that she is still “a little bit backward in her coat” but otherwise is quite positive about her.
The field for the Greenham Stakes (2.00) is a little more select but contains a suspect Ballydoyle contender out to redeem a reputation. I am eliminating Albert Einstein straight away as I do not like horses in first-time head gear (hood fitted after poor effort on seven furlong return three weeks ago) and the speed he showed in his two juvenile starts screams sprinter. A number of this field need to have come on over the winter on what limited form is available. Needle Match won his only start on soft ground here last term so he must be well regarded by connections to even be in the line up; however, other make more appeal. The same can be said for Gonna Fly, who won only start over a mile here on soft ground and his entry in the Dante suggests that he wants further not a drop back a furlong. Aqpan makes a first start on turf after two seconds on the kitty litter followed by a win at odds of 1/10 and clearly needs to find a stone to get into the mix here. Ardisia looks fully exposed after six juvenile starts, winning the Redcar Trophy and finishing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. That leaves him with 7lb or so to find with the leading contenders here and others are likely to have improved past him. Title Role has shown his three year old ability in Meydan winning twice over a mile. That makes him one of the lead challengers today; however, the drop back to seven furlongs is a concern. Alparslan would be amongst those with the Burke yard already having had success this term. He won a valuable sales race at The Curragh and was highly regarded enough to take his chance in the Dewhurst, finishing sixth, with the Craven winner in fifth. Also in the Dewhurst in fourth was Eve Johnson Houghton’s ZAVATERI, consistently underrated last term after a surprise win in the Group 2 July Stakes, following up in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes and then winning the Group 1 National Stakes. Whilst the trainer has warned that he will come on for this race, I think he will still be good enough to win it, running unpenalised for his juvenile pattern successes.
After the two classic trials, the John Porter Stakes (2.35) does not contain the slow old plodder that was rumoured to be taking a chance but does contain a horse with a record of beating ordinary horses at this level. Although Pride Of Arras is out, the nine year old Al Aasy does not have the usual small field penalty kick common in these staying races. It is notable that William Haggas also runs Tenability, a horse that improved with every race last term completing a four timer before finishing second in the Cumberland Lodge. It is perhaps asking a lot for that one to improve 10lb over the winter to get involved at the finish. The ground eliminated Hamish, the other Haggas staple in these races. Bellum Justum started last season in this race and there is no reason to see him suddenly coming good against better opposition. Seven year old Phantom Flight is race fit from Bahrain but has a 3lb penalty for winning a Group 3 there and may struggle to give weight to the two market principals. The same can be said for Convergent, trying to give 5lb thanks to his Group 2 win at Longchamp, although prior to that he beat Al Aasy four lengths at Leopardstown in receipt of 11lb. So that leaves six year old Lion’s Pride, lightly raced with just 12 career starts and easy winner of the Godolphin Stakes last autumn. He is entered in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup and has contested a pair of Group 2s in Bahrain so he is thought to be better than this level and I expect that it will be him or Al Aasy collecting today. I wonder if Moore will try to set the fractions on the Gosden gelding to avoid this becoming a sprint up the straight against the Haggas gelding.
