Daily Thread: Friday 16th December

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TopClass

TopClass

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Jun 22, 2011
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Decent weekend of action begind here, especially Ascot.

12.45 Ascot- Hadrian's Approach really interested me from a breeding perspective and won its only start in a point in Ireland. By High Chapparal out of a dam who won at 2m, I'd like to think that it ought to have the speed to make an impact on debut and as a winning pointer who has joined a top yard, I expect a bold showing.

I think it is worth taking on Rocky Creek at the prices, anything near to 3/1 I'm happy with.

3.05 Ascot: Shuil Royale e.w 11/1 (NAP)

Really open looking handicap and one or two unexposed sorts to fear. However, Shuil Royale is unexposed itself, winning 3 of 6 starts under rules, and shaped like a step up in trip would suit. Didn't quite pan out at Cheltenham last time but that is a specialist track and he might not have handled it, so I think another chance on a right-handed track should definitely suit, given his wins at Wincanton and Kempton. He has also looked to be less keen in the way he travels this season, which should benefit him at this sort of a trip.


LAY KING Selections: http://betfairlayking.weebly.com/index.html - 2 for Friday at Ascot
 
Morning everyone

Toppy you've obviously got Paul Nicholls on the run, he's withdrawn Rocky Creek <laugh>

Lovely looking card at Ascot today and for me the highlight is the reappearance of Hazy Tom (NAP). He absolutely slaughtered Sea Of Thunder last time out and that one was in the process of running away with a Grade 2 last Saturday at Cheltenham before very unluckily tipping up at the last.

Early prices of 11/10 look well worth taking. I assume he is favourite, even though the old Sporting Life is showing Peckahmecho at 6/11 - surely that's an error?

In the Grade 2 Novices Chase Kumbeshwar looks well treated at the weights and can provide Alan King with another winner to continue his good recent run. The 3.05 looks a fascinating handicap and Dancing Dude catches my eye at 6/1 for Henderson & Geraghty. Rated 80 on the flat for Mark Johnston, he has taken well to the winter game and won 2 hurdle races under Andrew Tinkler. He did encounter soft ground early in his career and didn't seem too inconvenienced by it, finishing a couple of lengths second at Ayr but staying on nicely. I think he got a bit lonely in front last time and I think today's bigger field will suit him.

Best of luck everyone <ok>
 
The G2 is a wonderful race Oddy. I liked the look of your selection Kumbeshwar. I figured the trip in the small field might turn into a real grind over the last few fences, and so had to thrown in Michael Flips as well. I think I'd put him on top....just. As I'm not betting, I'm on yours all the way.
 
Cyc I'm a big fan of Michael Flips as well, he will make a grand handicap chaser in time - just think one or two of these might be destined for better things <ok>

Looks highly significant that McCoy goes to Huntingdon today - chances of a treble <ok>
 
Good morning chaps.
Some intriguing racing from Ascot today, the 15.05 looks like perm any one from ten, the 14.30 only has 6 runners but a case can be made for all of them, and the 13.55 looks like 3 against the field &#8211; but which of the three?
Hazy Tom looks to be the one in the Mitie Kennel Gate hurdle but it isn&#8217;t easy to discard either of Molotof or Peckhamecho either!
In the Totepool Novices all six runners have fair claims &#8211; for me Pacha Du Polder, in receipt of weight from 4 of the other 5 looks the most solid, but I may wait and see what the market does.
The Barclays Handicap Hurdle &#8211; I&#8217;ll leave that to someone else, but should be a good watch at least :) So for me Hazy Tom and Pacha Du Polder - good luck all.
 
Two very good novice races at Ascot today.

The hurdle looks a match between Hazy Tom and Molotof, with Hazy Tom a very well backed favourite. His form has received boost after boost and he might announce himself on the Supreme scene this afternoon. Molotof has some very decent form himself, particularly when chasing home Triumph winner Zarkandar at Kempton last season. I'm not convinced there should be the huge price discrepancy between the two so Molotof at 5/2 might look a little more attractive. No bet for me, just a watching and learning brief.

I do like Chablais but he will have to jump far better than he did on his debut to take this, unless he has one hell of an engine. I can fully understand the lay with him. Like a few on here I think Kumbeshwar could be the one at the prices. I think the Nicholls horse Pacha Du Polder is massively overrated on 150 and couldn't fancy him. Frascati Park and Micheal Flips are decent yardsticks but I'd hope one of the younger horses might have too much for them.

In the 3.05, I've backed Our Father yesterday early doors at 4/1 and laid it all off now the price has plunged. I have heard a lot about this one and know that he is expected to be far better than his current mark in time. Although Dynaste seems to have taken the Grands Crus mantel, this one has been mentioned in the same fashion too, a handicap winner waiting to happen. Given the money it looks like today could be the day.
 
Morning chaps... Not looked at anything yet but hopefully the forum will provide the readers with a good guide as to what to look at... Well done Cyc on getting the winner yesterday in the 'BIG' race of the day...<ok>

Just on another note - Did i hear right on the radio this morning that Kempton will be having a reindeer 1f race this weekend...!!! Hasnt that big bloke in the red coat done well getting them fit for xmas...!!! <laugh>

Back in a bit...
 
Zen you have got me worried now! Completely agree with you on Chablais, I think if he won this without improving his jumping then he would have a very, very good engine.
 
Morning all,

Trust we are all well. Xmas party passed without too much issue, which is always a relief.

I just read a tweet from Choc Thornton that I thought you would all appreciate its an image of his injury so I have put it behind the NSFW code

- [NSFW]
You must log in or register to see images
[/NSFW]
 
In terms of racing -

I think the Novice Chase today is the race to be most interested in and I think its fascinating to see us going a bit French with racing 4 year olds over fences in their early careers. The weight for age that they get make them interesting prospects and I think I would rather be with Pacha Du Polder in the race than any of the others. I loved the way it jumped on its debut over fences and I think he could jump them all into the ground here. I think he is the most natural at the fences from what we have seen so far.
 
redcgull said:
Morning chaps... Not looked at anything yet but hopefully the forum will provide the readers with a good guide as to what to look at... Well done Cyc on getting the winner yesterday in the 'BIG' race of the day...<ok>

Just on another note - Did i hear right on the radio this morning that Kempton will be having a reindeer 1f race this weekend...!!! Hasnt that big bloke in the red coat done well getting them fit for xmas...!!! <laugh>

Back in a bit...
Click to expand...

Thanks Red, gotta be lucky sometimes. <cheers>
 
Not a great deal to go at today, though you know its winter now with the 1st race of the day at 11.35...!!!

Fancy Triptico to do well at Utt, 4/1, in the 12.35...
Plus two short odds in Tornado Bob and Thehillofuiseach in a win double...

Ascot has Drumlag at short odds, 13/8 but i also fancy Osmosia to do well, 5/1 in the 1.20
Hazy Tom would be my choice in the 1.55...
And im with Oddy on Kumbeshwar in the 2.30...

Lets hope i dont jinx em... Good luck to all who play... <ok>
 
I think Baroque Man will outrun his odds of 66/1 in the first at Ascot. Another small EW play (and a toteplace bet to boot)
 
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