Ante Post Big Races (no Cheltenham Festival)

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Grendel said:
Well Oxagon finished ahead of Gewan but had to give best to the O'Brien maiden rated 102.

Still, Scandinavia won the St Leger and I had backed him at 7/1 Ante Post. I didn't fancy Lambourn today as he was pretty dismal in the Voltiguer at York.

Looking back at the Derby you would have to say it was pretty poor and Lambourn hasn't looked like a 120 horse on his last two starts.
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Oxagon got a boost when Cape Orator and Puerto Rico won in France this weekend, the latter winning the Group 1 Lagardere. Oxagon had finished a length behind Puerto Rico in the Champagne Stakes, with Cape Orator third, at Doncaster and with the form of that working out he surely deserves to take his chance in the Dewhurst now.

I have already backed Distant Storm at 5/1 for the top 2YO colt's race of the season but Oxagon at 16/1 looks big.

It's 3/1 each of three at the head of affairs with Zavateri and Gstaad sharing the honours with Distant Storm.
 
Ascot Saturday 18th October
Balmoral
Oliver Show 33/1 e/w four places all bookies
 
In the Fillies Mile there are jf at present in Precise and Legacy Link. They are a contrast of potential and proven form.

Precise won the Prestige at Goodwood where she beat Moon Target, who has flopped and then beaten again. However Precise went on to win the Moyglare in something of an upset. The Moyglare form has been let down a couple of times, particularly Beautify who was runner up but made no impression in the May Hill at Doncaster.

Legacy Link won on her second start looking useful but it was only a class 3 Novice at Haydock. By Dubawi out of Chiasma, who is a full sister to Frankel, she certainly has the pedigree but for now she is rated 24 lbs behind Precise. Trained by Gosden(s) she may be a longer term prospect. She is proven at the mile but the Group 1 form of Precise at the same odds looks the bet to me.

PRECISE 9/4

All things being equal I would expect the punters to be backing Precise on the day, rather than a filly with 24 lbs to find on the ratings.
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id be keen on Queen of Hawaii against the top two in the Fillies Mile, shes been quite impressive and has a good level of form in the book, unlike Legacy Link

Precise is by Starspangledbanner, started at 6f and showed a lot of speed to win the Moyglare off a slow pace, whereas Josephs filly is more of an out and out mile type, she could probably be doing with some rain to make it more of a stamina test

this race was mentioned by Joseph as a good option and hes won it twice in recent years, but not sure if she actually turns up, 11.5 for pennies on betfair at the minute and only some trying to get on at 16 so will wait and see if shes confirmed, not rushing to take 7/1 at this relatively early stage
 
Grendel said:
Oxagon has halved to 8/1, available at 16/1 yesterday.
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had a look when I saw your post last night, 16s was a rick, and I was pretty sure it would have in price today, its high level form but I just wasnt convinced about him winning, he got done for speed a bit at Doncaster and a step up in trip for the Futurity was mentioned as an option, so id worry about him against real fast horses like Gstaad and Zavateri, and looking at the entries it might not be the strongest run Dewhurst

Distant Storm was mighty impressive last time, but Appleby has said all along its about next year for him, and its quite a quick turnaround to go again 16 days later given his profile, I dont think it was the plan, and the Somerville is usually a relatively weak race, you need to go back to Milk It Mick in 2003 for the last time a winner has followed up here, although Alyanaabi and Wichita have placed

i just think this Zavateri is the champion 2yo who turned up in a small yard, it would be great to see the 35k purchase beating the might of Ballydoyle and Godolphin in the top 2yo race, he just fits the bill with that 1111 form, July Stakes, Vintage Stakes, National Stakes, he has a great turn of foot and is game as you like in a finish, proper 2yo and very tough to beat I think
 
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I notice Pathein is entered in the Autumn Stakes on Saturday, which looks a much more realistic go than the Futurity, although the Autumn has been a very strong race in recent years and a better 3yo pointer than the G2 Royal Lodge imo, not sure how its still only G3 status as it regularly produces Group 1 horses

a couple of horses have run from the Pathein maiden in the meantime and not really set the world alight, Seaway 6th and Colourband 7th have both run 3rd but well beaten, and Lyneham 2nd was only workmanlike when winning at Newmarket, its enough to put me off being strong on Pathein for this, although I will have a saver at 12/1 (missed 20/1)

Appleby and Godolphin have farmed the race in recent years and their Al Zanati is the current favourite, he quickened well to beat August George on debut who went on to run second in the Goffs Million, but he appears to have left that form well behind and theres no guarantee that Al Zanati will have improved similarly, hes priced up more on connections record in the race than substance of that debut imo

Straight Up 4/1 is the one to be on I think, when one of Obriens wins like that first time out theyre usually pretty good, and he looked the sort of high class prospect he often runs here, e.g Magna Grecia, Circus Maximus, Delacroix, and I dont think he has a Persian King to beat here, Hankelow for red hot Karl Burke was beaten in a pretty weak listed race so it would be disappointing if the Obrien colt wasnt a class above

if the race is to produce another G1 horse, Straight Up looks the most likely candidate to me

Autumn Stakes
Straight Up 4/1
Pathein 12/1 (saver)

2000 Guineas
Straight Up 33/1
 
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In the 1000 Guineas I thought Legacy Link was worth a punt at 33/1. This seems a bit counter intuitive having backed Precise for the Fillies Mile but she is only 10/1 for the Guineas and with the two Fillies being jt favs for Friday's race it looks a bit skew wiff for the Guineas. Defeat on Friday need not be the end of the world for Legacy Link and even if they are ultimately looking at her as an Oaks filly the Guineas would be as good a place to start her off next season. Dam Chiasma was only modest but did win at 12F in her only success from five starts.

1000 Guineas LEGACY LINK 33/1

A win on Friday would see those odds tumble.
 
Alexei (20/1) is an interesting entry for the Welsh Champion Hurdle this coming Sunday at Chepstow.

Went into my note book after his second victory at Taunton last December and I even had a small e/w bet on him at huge odds for the Supreme Novices Hurdle but he ran disappointingly in a listed race at Exeter thereafter and didn't go to the Supreme. After disappointing again on handicap debut at Newbury in March (travelled really nicely throughout the race but found nothing when asked 2 out) he has not been seen since. I'm not sure whether they found anything wrong with him, or just decided to give him a rest, but I think he could be one to follow this winter. The Sporting Life and Racing Post both show Brendan Powell booked to ride him and I take that as a sign he will run. He goes off a mark of 127 carrying 11-00 and should be fine on good ground.
 
Fillies Mile betting has changed. Precise clear Fav now at an average 11/8 and Legacy Link averaging roughly 4/1. It didn't make sense to me that they were the same price when betting opened.
 
I have done Hankelow in the Autumn Stakes. I think he has the strongest form thus far and while others may improve there is nothing to say he can't come forward himself. I thought he had won last time but he went down by a nose in Listed company which sets the standard here.

Al Zanati has to be respected but has a bit to prove, while the same applies to Straight Up, however he won at Listowel on heavy and I'm not sure he beat much there. This is up in class and on faster ground. On balance I felt Hankelow had a better chance than odds of 3/1 suggest and he was well backed last time.

Autumn Stakes HANKELOW 3/1
 
I have had a go on Legacy Link for the Oaks. She is 33/1 and a good run in the Fillies Mile would see her shorten. Diamond Necklace is a silly price at 8/1 and she won an uninspiring Boussac. There will be staying fillies emerging next spring and Diamond Necklace will have to prove her stamina as well.

The Oaks LEGACY LINK 33/1
 
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Grendel said:
In the Fillies Mile there are jf at present in Precise and Legacy Link. They are a contrast of potential and proven form.

Precise won the Prestige at Goodwood where she beat Moon Target, who has flopped and then beaten again. However Precise went on to win the Moyglare in something of an upset. The Moyglare form has been let down a couple of times, particularly Beautify who was runner up but made no impression in the May Hill at Doncaster.

Legacy Link won on her second start looking useful but it was only a class 3 Novice at Haydock. By Dubawi out of Chiasma, who is a full sister to Frankel, she certainly has the pedigree but for now she is rated 24 lbs behind Precise. Trained by Gosden(s) she may be a longer term prospect. She is proven at the mile but the Group 1 form of Precise at the same odds looks the bet to me.

PRECISE 9/4

All things being equal I would expect the punters to be backing Precise on the day, rather than a filly with 24 lbs to find on the ratings.
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Pisser City for Precise and as expected the jt Favs on Tuesday went in completely different directions on the day.

They could not give Legacy Link away drifting out to four times the odds on 9/1.
She ran a really promising race though, staying on well in 4th and taking the scalps of some far higher rated fillies. I thought it was encouraging for the Oaks if not the Guineas.

Precise was cut for the Guineas to 6/1 and lower with Corals going an eye watering 5/2. Winning jockey Christophe Soumillion was asked how today's winner Precise compared to Boussac winner Diamond Necklace the Belgian seemed to indicate a preference for the French race winner.

Aidan came on and gave the usual speil you would expect and highlighted the progress that Precise has made with each race, indicating that he feels she will get a mile and a half.

Time will tell, the question mark might be the big prices in second and third. Venetian Lace had looked pretty exposed coming in and at 40/1 ran well beyond expectations in 2nd. Composing was disappointing along with Dance To The Music. Some fillies will need serious upgrading to make the numbers fit and that always worries me.

Whoever was framing the original odds must have been on the wacky back. Group one winner and novice winner at the same price.
 
Poor Moon Target, after the trainer saying she was done for the season and probably needed more time he shoves her in a Group 2 and then a Group 1. She ran OK in the Rockfel but was poor today. That's one way to sicken a horse in a hurry and I think it was poor training. Why not just admit that the filly isn't as good as first thought and be patient with her? Instead you try every aid in the book to prove a point.

I don't know what it is with Luke Morris but I think he could have made Frankel look like a cripple. He's an ungainly sight on a horse and it looks like he is trying to beat a snake to death in the jubgle rather than encouraging a horse to give their best I am glad he wasn't my teacher at school as he would probably been dishing out the belt from atop a desk to get more welly into it. Six of the best for Sir Mark for the way he has run the guts out of Moon Target this year. Breeders Cup still an option for her?
 
Gewan caused a bit of a boil over at 25/1 reversing form with Oxagon from their last run.
Gstaad ran another solid race after being keen.

Distant Storm had every chance but just couldn't pick up. William Buick said he needs more time to mature and it is early days yet for the Guineas.

Hankelow won well enough earlier but they were in a heap in behind. Interestingly connections felt that he would be better with juice in the ground and he looks a decent prospect.
 
Bow Echo is 7/1 Fav for the 2000 Guineas and I can't have that. He is quite a small colt and I don't think the Royal Lodge was a strong renewal. I would question the 114 official rating he holds.

Gewan won the Dewhurst today but he wasn't so good when there was cut in the ground at Doncaster. Oxagon was ahead of him there but the Gosden runner closed up on the winner notably in the closing stages, so perhaps faster conditions didn't suit the son of Frankel today.

One thing is sure, the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, won by Puerto Rico has seen the winner, third and fourth all winning since. Not only that two of them were in Group 1s.

Puerto Rico failed to win on his first two starts in modest company but was then thrown into group races. He earned some places but didn't manage to get his head in front. His fortunes seemed to change with softer ground and is now officially rated 118, which is four pounds higher than Bow Echo but he is nearly twice his odds for the Guineas. Yes he has had more races than Bow Echo but he was tried at 6F for most of them and has improved by at least a stone for stepping up to 7F and juice in the ground.
 
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OddDog said:
Alexei (20/1) is an interesting entry for the Welsh Champion Hurdle this coming Sunday at Chepstow.

Went into my note book after his second victory at Taunton last December and I even had a small e/w bet on him at huge odds for the Supreme Novices Hurdle but he ran disappointingly in a listed race at Exeter thereafter and didn't go to the Supreme. After disappointing again on handicap debut at Newbury in March (travelled really nicely throughout the race but found nothing when asked 2 out) he has not been seen since. I'm not sure whether they found anything wrong with him, or just decided to give him a rest, but I think he could be one to follow this winter. The Sporting Life and Racing Post both show Brendan Powell booked to ride him and I take that as a sign he will run. He goes off a mark of 127 carrying 11-00 and should be fine on good ground.
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Close but no cigar - 2nd at SP 10/1.
 
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Puerto Rico is 9/1 for the French 2000 Guineas and if the race were tomorrow, on ground with some cut in it, I would be jumping and lumping on.

Two factors though, I don't see Aidan having many he would put ahead of this colt for Newmarket. Gstaad maybe and there are some with potential but they are not there yet. I am basing the chances of Puerto Rico on France being the most likely place to get his ground and the fact the Albert Einstein may return as the "Best in the yard" colt that he appeared to be touted as in May this year. Benvenuto Cellini could also emerge from the Futurity with a victory and the usual comment about Epsom being the long term target but "We'll start him off in the Guineas"

Benvenuto Cellini will usurp Bow Echo with a win at Doncaster and that may push Puerto Rico down the pecking order and give him a better chance of heading elsewhere as I a certain they will be aiming to sweep the Guineas' in 2026.

All of this is complicated by the only firm offering odds is Unibet. I don't think much of the outfit and once again they have a horse in the race who shouldn't be there. Zelzal is quoted but he won't win it because he will be THIRTEEN years old on Jan 1st. A good horse for Jean-Claude Rouget back in the day but been at stud for a while now.

I'll be keeping an eye on the betting for Puerto Rico for the French Guineas.
 
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