2025 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

I won't be going this year that's for sure

 

Aventure is the latest to inherit the potential curse of being favourite for the Arc now. After Kalpana being the ridiculously short Fav by default last year's runner up now occupies the position of no value. I think if Sosie had won today it would have been pretty close between the two and Minnie Hauk at the head of affairs.

I feel Sosie will be thereabouts with the possibility that he will be cherry ripe on Arc day and I still don't understand why they took him over for the Eclipse.

I am still not convinced by Minnie Hauk and don't really rate anything she has beaten. Twirl certainly blotted her copy book today and is now 33/1 for that Arc after looking an extremely skinny 6/1 coming in today.

Aventure won a fairly poor looking race if you ignore Twirl who stank the place out.

Happy with Sosie at 20/1 and may have a bit more at 12/1 because I can't see him being double figures on the day.

 

There was a good form boost for Danon Decile today Grendel. I expected to see that one go blue but he isn't quoted. Obviously missed something there

 

This is still the most open betting market I can remember for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Naturally I am delighted with my ante post bet now that she is favourite, especially after the way that she won the Prix Vermeille. She has been trained for the race and she has picked up her Group 1 on the way.

The Japanese hand has obviously strengthened with Byzantine Dream’s Prix Foy victory; however, if it comes up much softer than it was today, will that be to the disadvantage of all the Japanese runners that are used to fast ground?

Whilst I backed the winner of the Prix Niel, I do not think that it was a very good race but I can see Caulificar lining up so that Godolphin definitely have a runner as the Newmarket operation does not appear to have a candidate.

Since I can no longer see Whirl lining up (perhaps she will switch to the Prix de l’Opera) the market now seems to revolve around the participation of Minnie Hauk. If she drops out, Aventure’s odds will contract further.

With no decision yet having been made about Kalpana after her weekend disappointment, I wonder whether today’s results will make them decide to still let her take her chance rather than go to Champions’ Day again.

 

Not sure what that boost was Ron. I hadn't backed him for the Arc because I wasn't sure about the ground and was waiting to see nearer the time. I was disappointed by his effort in the Eclipse, where I did back him, but after that I wrote him off. I don't think he is entered.

 

On Sunday, Byzantine Dream was the fastest of the Arc trials (by over a second) and he was beaten 4½L by Danon Decile in Jan. I didn't realise DD had run in that Juddmonte International Stakes. He was "Edgy, keen to post, took keen hold...." and it was over 10f so may not have been his true running. Anyway as you say, looks like he is out and, like Regaleira, might not go on soft ground anyway

 

Is this the year that Japan finally win the Arc?

They have sent a few good horses and tried different approaches. They should have won it with Orfevre but that is horse racing...

This still looks like one of the most open races in recent times at 4/1 the field with most of the trial races now done.

Last year’s runner up Aventure is generally 4/1 after winning the Prix Vermeille with Oaks winner Minnie Hauk also generally 4/1 but available at 9/2 and 5/1 in places. Of course final plans for the Ballydoyle party are not yet known.

The Japanese are third in the betting with best priced 10/1 Croix Du Nord, winner of the Group 3 on the track from local hope Daryz (generally 20/1 but available at 25/1). Also a 10/1 chance is the other Wertheimer probable Sosie whilst the second Japanese possible, Prix Foy winner Byzantine Dream is also generally 10/1 but available at 12/1 in a couple of places.

Favourite a few weeks ago, Kalpana, is now available at 12/1, 14/1 and 16/1. The Prix Niel winner Caulificar trades at 16/1. After that the 20/1 and greater list contains Prix de Diane winner Gezora, Japan’s Alohi Alii, Estrange, Quisisana and Japan’s Masquerade Ball.

It looks possible that this year will not be a maximum field as many of the 33/1 and above are improbable runners.

 

I wish I found it that easy Oddy.
How did you come to that conclusion? She hasn't beaten much

The only one I could consider as obvious is Aventure, in form, goes well on soft, 2nd last year, C&D winner

 

As I understand ORs, even with her 7lbs she's still 3lbs behind Aventure.

 

I am not seeing it with Minnie Hauk. I feel most of her success has been down to a dearth of talent in her sex age group.

She did improve on early season form but very much needed to as she started from a Handicapper's mark. In the Oaks I was convinced Desert Flower was a cert but she flopped in third. The trainer said it was the track she didn't like but we have not seen her again so I think it may be that she didn't train on but managed to get away with it in the Guineas. Whirl went on to win the Nassau and was awarded a rather silly looking rating of 122 for a wide margin win on gutters. She went off odds on and was stone last afterwards when running 12 lbs lower on RPR.

I think the whole ratings picture went wrong when they gave Desert Flower running to 113 in the Oaks. That knocked Minnie Hauk up to 120 and Whirl to 119. The trouble with that RPR for Desert Flower is that it was 1 lb HIGHER than she ran to in the 1000 Guineas. Her Guineas rating was 5 lbs lower than her best 2YO run, again suggesting she won it without training on.

Since then the O'Brien Fillies have been racing older horses like Estrange and Sea The Fire, who I consider overrated and adding to their reputations by default. Yes you can only beat what is put in front of you but you need to be confident that the suggested abilities of the opposition is correct.

It's just as well Aidan isn't rating them. He'd probably have Minnie Hauk on 135 and Whirl on 134

 

Your ratings analysis points to a poor crop of three year olds, and I agree with you.
The four year olds may not be much better but form lines suggest that the best form lines are held by three geldings- Calandagan, Anmaat, and Rebel’s Romance- all ineligible for the Arc De Triomphe.
Yes, you’d have to give Aventure a chance in the Arc, although Calandagan put him in his place earlier in the season in France.
His current price of 4/1 certainly doesn’t appeal to me, so what else has a chance?
Well, after Al Riffa won the Group 1 Irish Leger last week, it was touted he’d have a good chance if sent down under for the Melbourne Cup.
However, his form lines suggest he’d not be without a chance in the Arc.
Although beaten by Rebel’s Romance earlier on, he’s done nothing wrong since. He’d stay every yard of the trip and wouldn’t mind cut in the ground.
I’ve no idea whether his stable will send him there , but I’ve had a flutter on him at an attractive 66/1 - in what looks like a very mediocre field.

 

yes that's it
so even with 7ibs she'll still be 3lbs behind

 

It must do. Otherwise how do you compare generations? How do you explain for example that Brigadier Gerard's 3yo rating was 141 yet his 4yo rating was only 144. The 4yo BG would have beaten the 3yo BG by 10 lengths at level wights in May/June time of the 1972 season. It's the same with different horses. My guess is Aventure's OR hasn't changed much from last year. Of course she's better than last year though.

 

But she has to carry 7lbs more than she did last year, because she has improved.