Champion Hurdle - early thoughts

[Zenyatta]

Thread merged. Original thread originated by Oddog (See post No 7).


On the subject of The Hurricane, did anybody else manage to get the 3/1 offered by Boylesports as part of their 12 Day's of Christmas offer?

I think he's an odds on shot if he turns up from what I have seen so far, and am more than happy with that price.

 

[GGW]

Just heard that nicholls wrote in his betfair column we might not see Zarkandar till Febuary


At the min I'd say the Champ Hurdle is the race that excites me most, as it was last year when I realised we finally were going to see HF. It's imperative he stays fit because what excites me is getting to see just how good he is. The Irish have a tendancy to hype their horses so I took what was being said about him with a pinch of salt, more so after Cue Card's run but HF is the real deal and I want to now see if he's one of the greats. Back to back and even 3 (if he stays fit) Champ Hurdles are a must, and with the zarkanar and spirt son due to line up and also Grandouet it should be a real treat. Anyway we'll save this debate for a later time, but I can't wait


Also excited for the Arkle, looks to be a standout big 3 at the minute.

 

[DanishPastry]

I think he's an odds on shot if he turns up from what I have seen so far, and am more than happy with that price.

Absolutely, I would be too.

I think the Champion Hurdle will be one of the best races of the festival regardless of whether or not Hurricane Fly goes - if he doesn't, then a Zarkandar-Spirit Son-Grandouet-Overturn-Rock on Ruby etc race is still a fantastic prospect, and if he does go, then for me it'll be a case of 'how far will he win by', and 'is he half as good as Istbaraq'. Can't wait.

Between this and the Arkle, Monday of Cheltenham is looking a must-go event.

 

[woolcombe-folly007]

I still havent and wont loose faith in good old Binocular, If back to his champion hurdle form! WIll definately give HF a run but as i said he would have to run to that exact again! If he runs like he did in newcastle (I reckon that was just a warm up, all of NH horses need a run out b4 they 110%) he will get beaten badly!

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[OddDog]

Have to agree with beefy here - not seen anything so far this season that could live with Hurricane Fly. Grandouet beat an over-the-top Overturn in receipt of 4lbs whereas HF murdered him in the CH off level weights. If Zarkander won't be out till February then he has clearly had problems and it already sounds like a race to get him ready. Spirit Son needs to earn the right to line up, his win at Aintree was from Cue Card FFS!!! Rock On Ruby can give weight away but is he a Champion Hurdle horse? I have my doubts. The novice form from last season looks weak when you look at what the beaten horses have done since, and it is a big, big step up to the top table. Binocular not good enough, Oscar Whiskey needs a trip, Overturn not suited by the track. To me HF would be a 4/6 shot if you could trust his fitness. I sincerely hope he makes it to the festival because without him the Champion Hurdle would be a cast of "also rans".

 

[Zenyatta]

To me HF would be a 4/6 shot if you could trust his fitness. I sincerely hope he makes it to the festival because without him the Champion Hurdle would be a cast of "also rans".

This. The Champion will be a non-event if The Hurricane is not there.

 

[OddDog]

I noticed the "spotlight" thread on Master Minded has gone a bit off topic and members are airing first thoughts about the Champion Hurdle, so here is a dedicated thread for early thoughts.

My tuppenceworth:

I've not seen anything so far this season that could live with Hurricane Fly. Grandouet beat an over-the-top Overturn in receipt of 4lbs whereas HF murdered him in the CH off level weights. If Zarkander won't be out till February then he has clearly had problems and it already sounds like a race to get him ready. Spirit Son needs to earn the right to line up, his win at Aintree was from Cue Card FFS!!! Rock On Ruby can give weight away but is he a Champion Hurdle horse? I have my doubts. The novice form from last season looks weak when you look at what the beaten horses have done since, and it is a big, big step up to the top table. Binocular not good enough, Oscar Whiskey needs a trip, Overturn not suited by the track. To me HF would be a 4/6 shot if you could trust his fitness. I sincerely hope he makes it to the festival because without him the Champion Hurdle would be a cast of "also rans".

Let's not forget Hurricane Fly is rated 174. Grandouet has a rating of 166 based solely on his defeat of Overturn in receipt of 4lbs on a track which doesn't suit the McCain runner (and he was arguably over the top for that run). On last season's CH form that still gives him something like 15 lengths to make up on HF. Oscar Whiskey is rated 171 but will surely be going the World Hurdle route - he has already been soundly beaten by HF in the 2011 CH.

If HF turns up at Cheltenham he is rock solid banker material - by backing him ante post you are gambling on his fitness and it is worrying that he missed his intended seasonal debut. Let's hope he's seen out soon for without him I fear the Champion Hurdle will live in the shadow of the horse that wasn't there.

Thoughts??

 

[woolcombe-folly007]

I dont agree with that one bit and is abit dis respectful! Yes HF is top class hurdler but there are plenty of great hurdlers- Grandouet (will be) Binocular, oscar whiskey, Zarkander and more. To me Hf has not earned that respect yet, He has run once in england won the the champion hurdle once!He has not 100% proved himself!nif you were saying it about Kauto I completly agree, it will take time for when he retires to get used to seeing a GC or KG without him. Willie Mullins obviously needs to change something in his training if he keeps getting lame!

 

[TopClass]

Grandouet is not Champion Hurdle material for me, but every chance he will be next season. Overturn is admirable and loveable but Grandouet should be dealing with him comfortably if he is to threaten someone like Hurricane Fly. Spirit Son will be the best Henderson hurdler IMO.

Zarkandar might be the one to surprise. Just to clarify Nicholls' comments- he has maintained from the word go that Zarkandar would not be rushed and in fact he had no plans whatsoever for him in October. He has also had a breathing operation- Nicholls said he had some issues last season that made him very difficult to get right. He was never expected to run well in the Triumph trial as Nicholls had him nowhere near ready.

I suspect you will see a more improved horse this season and I think his raw flat speed might make him Hurricane Fly's nearest challenger this season. Nicholls has hinted two or three times already this season that he wants to win the Champion Hurdle more than anything. I just think he is quietly confident.

 

[OddDog]

WF the hurricane is 9 out of 10 in Grade 1 races and took on the very best in last season's Champion Hurdle. With the exception of Peddler's Cross (who is a very, very good horse) he destroyed them. Yes he is a fragile horse (some just are, nothing to do with training methods, in fact keeping a horse like that on the go is an additional challenge for a trainer) but last season's novices need to step up (remember this time last year Peddlers Cross - novice champ from the previous year - had already won the G1 Fighting Fifth from Starluck and Binocular) to even be mentioned in the same breath.

HF has also already humiliated Binocular by 9 lengths in the Rabobank Champion, beating him 9 lengths on the bridle. Just watch him - absolutely laughs at them:

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=PUN_2011_05_06_04_1730

HF is the true champ - if he turns up he wins. If he doesn't it's a non-event.

 

[ROTO]

Woolcombe how on earth hasn't Hurricane Fly proved himself, especially if you think that Grandouet and Zarkander have earned that respect. Ridiculous statement if I am reading that right. Since coming back from injury, Hurricane Fly has remained unbeaten and has smashed every obstacle in his way. He has proven, by far, that he is the best hurdler at the moment with the only debate potentially being that Binocular (and this is a huge IF considering he has gone completely off the ball) is up near him. Also to suggest that Willie Mullins, one of the best trainers around, needs to change his training methods is beyond ridiculous. Its clearly something to do with the horse, not the trainer. Put it in the context of footballers. Some players have dodgy knees and backs that they are born with and perhaps its the case with HF.

If winning 6 consecutive Group 1s doesn't earn respect then I don't know what does

 

[woolcombe-folly007]

Yes proved in Ireland but not on this side of the Irish sea, and your arent reading that right ROTO I didnt say anything aboout the others having that respect, imo no Hurdler (exceptbig bucks) has the right for that respect. Im not denying he is not a very good horse, he is and probably be the one of the best, but to say a race with out him is no rac that is a ridiculous statment!! Again not denying WM is not a great trainer but He musnt be doing something right if the horse keeps becoming lame! And yes footballers have dodgy knees, dodgy hamstring but they deal with it differntly e.g. Ledley King. So winning 6 Group ones earns a bit of respect! but not as much as everyone is giving him, with only one of those over here!

Im not trying argue, im just having a friendly discussion but putting my point across!!

 

[GGW]

I stand guilty as charged for dragging the Masterminded thread way off course. I was desperately trying to bring up any sort of debate that would put an end to the Kauto v Denman one that was threatening to flare up like a petrol soaked cigarette!


I am already drooling at the prospect of this race. My personal opinion is that most of the more seasoned hurdlers are well held and I'm not sure Rock on Ruby has been impressive enough. I think Nicholls knows his best chance, and for me the second likeliest winner of the race, is Zarkandar. The turn of foot he showed last year was impressive and he not only beat Grandouet 5L at Chelters but debatably had him as well held at Aintree. To win there as well shows he has plenty of speed - a must in the Champ hurdle. Im not worried that he won't be seen till Feb, I think that indicates that Nicholls has been aiming him at the Champ Hurdle. It's a race PN has never won and so I'd imagine he'd dearly, dearly love to win it (he's said he'd take it over the Grand NationaL). That he's happy to let his 2nd string fool around in the somewhat lesser hurdles indicates to me that he feels this is a live, live chance worth keeping fit and fresh. What's scary is he's been quoted as saying that Zarkandar has improved markedly for his wind op. Lets hope so


For me if the Fly doesn't turn up the race loses all of its gloss. Yes we'd love to know who's the top hurdler from last season's novices but what excites me more is that I think we've got 3 or 4 really good hurdlers coming through, including winners from last years festival (impressive ones at that) and so to win again HF will have to be a real champion. Last year PC was good but I feel this year is much more of a challenge in terms of raw speed and number of quality hurdlers. The Irish hyped this horse up more than anything and he delivered (providing a great atmosphere). Let's see if he really is one of the greats. It's imperative he stays fit.

Then we've got Grandouet, who comfortably held Menorah and a fully fit Overturn. I see nothing that would make me want to back either of those for the win especially if the fly makes it. I can't be having Binocular (but what a prospect if he did turn up on form!!). For me Grandouet didn't win in the style of a champion but possibly has more improvement in him, this season and next. All eyes on Zarkandar and of course Spirit Son,2nd at last years festival. I've heard people suggesting the Supreme was quicker that the CH last year. Obviously not too much should be read into this as HF looked to have plenty in hand and the supreme probably had a quicker pace but it does suggest Spirit Son has real ability. If, as has also been suggested on not606, he is Henderson's 1st choice for this race then, given the form of Grandouet, that also suggests SS has real ability.

My optimistic prediction is that if HF wins this easy we will be able to start to mention him in the same breath as the likes of Istabraq and co. If he turns up, runs his race and gets beat then we have a potential superstar on our hands



This race and the Arkle are the ones that excite me at the minute as you can tell after you've been forced to endure my longest post on not606







EDIT

Perhaps I'm thinking too much into this but I wonder if the decsion to send Al Ferof chasing rather than having a crack at the CH had anything to do with PN knowing that Zarkandar had him well held over 2m hurdles?

 

[greatpilsudski]

i think rock on ruby could turn out to be a serious contender come march.there bypassing the handicap hurdle at ascot on saturday to go for the xmas hurdle so we will all now by then if hes upto it.i hope so.

as for zarkander , if he runs in feb then he will go to the champion hurdle as a 5yo with probably 1 run that season and only 7 career starts and surely will not be experienced enough for it this year?i know he ran once before in feb)last year before taking the triumph but this is a lot tougher!!

 

[DanishPastry]

Then we've got Grandouet, who comfortably held Menorah and a fully fit Overturn.

Surely it could be argued that Overturn has had a pretty busy month? But I'll definitely agree re Menorah.

I can't be having Binocular (but what a prospect if he did turn up on form!!).

I'd argue that Binocular's last few runs have been 'on form' - by definition of 'on form' he's just not as good as we originally thought. His Champion Hurdle was impressive, but then he got put in his place by Peddlers Cross, who in my opinion is a much better horse.... who still isn't as good as Hurricane Fly (at Hurdling - let's not take this as a slander on Peddlers Cross, who is very exciting).

Perhaps I'm thinking too much into this but I wonder if the decsion to send Al Ferof chasing rather than having a crack at the CH had anything to do with PN knowing that Zarkandar had him well held over 2m hurdles?

I think Paul Nicholls was saying from the beginning that Al Ferof was a chasing recruit, but it's an interesting line of thought, given Nicholls clearly wants the Champion Hurdle - sounds quite exciting.

In summary, for me, the only horse who might live with Hurricane Fly that we've seen so far is Grandouet, and then only with a sizable improvement - which could happen.

However Spirit Son and Zarkandar should be right up there amongst the best hurdlers of this year - certainly I'm expecting to rate them over Binocular, Thousand Stars etc.

The Champion Hurdler must therefore come from the group Hurricane Fly, Spirit Son, Zarkandar, Grandouet, Overturn. I'll be disappointed if none of those middle three turn out better than Overturn (reserving judgement on Overturns fitness vs Grandouet, but I suspect he may have been a little overdone - not to say Grandouet wouldn't have beaten him anyway...).

If I were a trends man, which I'm not really, I'd say that Triumph Hurdle winners historically don't shape into much - Katchit the only winner of both the Triumph and the Champion in the last 20 or so years I think, which would count against Zarkandar, and therefore Grandouet... But I think that the strong form of last years Triumph suggests that Zarkandar could be a really impressive horse going into February or whenever he finally shows up.

Based on the comparison with Grandouet, Henderson still rates Spirit Son, so I think between Spirit Son and Zarkandar there may well be a challenger to Hurricane Fly.

But doesn't the fact that the two biggest challengers haven't raced yet point out Hurricane Fly's strengths? Nothing I've seen so far looks a problem. Whether he turns up or not, it'll be a great race – either for seeing a close heat between the other good hurdlers, or for seeing him laugh at them as he travels alone up the hill.

 

[NassauBoard]

Surely this all revolves around whether HF will turn up fit and well with a good prep. If he does then he wins for me, and easily too.

If he doesn't I wouldn't be surprised to see a big priced winner. Average crop for me.

 

[DanishPastry]

Surely this all revolves around whether HF will turn up fit and well with a good prep. If he does then he wins for me, and easily too.

If he doesn't I wouldn't be surprised to see a big priced winner. Average crop for me.

Do you rate Peddlers Cross? Because he makes an interesting comparison.

After the Champion Hurdle last year Peddlers Cross was rated 170.

At their peaks, Binocular, Grandouet and Overturn have been rated 172, 166 and 168. All around Peddlers Cross's level.

After his novice season, Peddlers Cross was rated 151.

Zarkandar and Spirit Son are both rated 154.

If you think Peddlers Cross was an exceptional hurdler - which I think most people do, then it's difficult to argue that the current crop are average.

 

[Deleted 1]

Surely this all revolves around whether HF will turn up fit and well with a good prep. If he does then he wins for me, and easily too.

If he doesn't I wouldn't be surprised to see a big priced winner. Average crop for me.

Can't argue with that. I like some of last season's novices - Zarkander in particular - but don't see them getting near the Fly if he runs anywhere close to his best.

 

[NassauBoard]

PC wasn't an exceptional hurdler, he was very good but not exceptional.

I also think comparing ratings for novices from different seasons is very dangerous, I think the handicapper gives 'hype' horses (Henderson, Nicholls) higher novice ratings than I think he should.

 

[beeforsalmon]

WF the hurricane is 9 out of 10 in Grade 1 races and took on the very best in last season's Champion Hurdle. With the exception of Peddler's Cross (who is a very, very good horse) he destroyed them. Yes he is a fragile horse (some just are, nothing to do with training methods, in fact keeping a horse like that on the go is an additional challenge for a trainer) but last season's novices need to step up (remember this time last year Peddlers Cross - novice champ from the previous year - had already won the G1 Fighting Fifth from Starluck and Binocular) to even be mentioned in the same breath.

HF has also already humiliated Binocular by 9 lengths in the Rabobank Champion, beating him 9 lengths on the bridle. Just watch him - absolutely laughs at them:

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=PUN_2011_05_06_04_1730

HF is the true champ - if he turns up he wins. If he doesn't it's a non-event.

This Oddy has pretty much summed up my thoughts on it. I've followed this animal since he arrived from Ireland and have re-watched all his races many times looking for chinks. There simply are none. We all know about his class, his cruising speed, his rapier-like jumping (this previously was his 'weakest' link but he's now as good as there is in this department). But what I really love about him is his will to win. Watch his novice hurdle at Punchestown 2009,the way he barged through a gap and he's only a little 'un...Look at the way he picked up Solwit at Punchestown 2010 after the last, the day Willie said 'he lost his head a little'. He wasn't settling for second. Recall how he eyeballed, the much bigger, warrier-like Peddlers Cross, one of National Hunts bravest and toughest and classiest horses around for the last couple of season. That day the Hurricane had to battle and battle his heart out he did. With a lot of these classy ex-flat horses you sometimes question their resolve, looking for weaknesses, there's no doubt about the Hurricanes, there's no soft underbelly with this one. If there's a horse good enough to get into a battle with him up that Cheltenham hill (I doubt there is tbh) there's only going to be one winner.