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Daily Racing Thread Sunday 17th. August 2025

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Aug 16, 2025 at 8:42 AM.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    Sunday's Meetings

    Southwell
    A/W 8 Races 1:22-4:52p.m.
    Pontefract
    Flat 7 Races 2:12-5:12p.m.
    Tramore
    N/H 7 Races 2:30-5:30p.m

    Racecards
    At The Races
    Sporting Life
    Racing Post


    Good Luck <ok>
     
    #1
  2. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Morning, all. Hope everyone on the well side of well.

    I see that old boy Shakem Up’Arry has been retired. Hope the 11YO enjoys a long and happy retirement.

    But does this mean that we will never again get to hear the story about why Shakem Up’Arry was monikered Shakem Up’Arry?!?. If I had a pound and all that...
     
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  3. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    5.00 Tramore-Katzoff

    Each Way @ 22-1 (Bet 365)

    For the upset
     
    #3
  4. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    There is no Rosallion in the Prix Jacques leMarois (2.50 BST) this afternoon, officially because of a bruised foot. The reality of the situation here is that he has been diverted to York next week but connections want to avoid the withdrawal penalty at Deauville so they have conjured up a vet’s certificate.

    The field of ten that remains throws up quite a few issues. I think that I can safely say that Group 3 Prix de la Porte Maillot winner King Gold is way out of his depth here as a small blanket would have covered the first seven in that race two months ago and there were only eight runners! Go To First is a Japanese five year old that last ran at Nakayama in April finishing well down the field in a Group 3 race. Two of his four career wins have been at 1600m, neither of them pattern races, which will explain the 66/1 odds with the British bookies. Is he an intended pacemaker? The Queen Anne form is heavily represented here with winner Docklands back to a straight mile after failing to get involved at all in the Sussex Stakes, while Ascot fourth Notable Speech arrives having disappointed dropped to sprinting in the July Cup, eighth Dancing Gemini has not been seen since Ascot and ninth Diego Velazquez did come out and win a substandard Group 2 over seven furlongs at The Curragh. It is hard to make a case for any of them. Of the local hopes, Francis-Henri Graffard’s Zabiari arrives unbeaten this year trying to retain the sponsors’ prize money but two of his wins were conditions races against moderate opposition and his most recent was the Group 3 Prix Betrand du Breuil, where he did enough to beat the 2023 Poulains winner that had not won since the corresponding race in 2024. So the main hope for keeping the prize in France appears to be my old wallet-emptier Ridari. He was an ‘unlucky’ fifth in the Poulains, an ‘unlucky’ sixth in the Prix du Jockey Club and was then only third in a Chantilly Group 3. I have definitely given up on him so watch him hose up today! The ‘other’ Japanese horse today is the filly Ascoli Piceno (running in the Orfevre colours), winner of the Victoria Mile in Tokyo when last seen in May. The one she has to beat is the tarnished Ballydoyle wonder horse The Lion In Winter, yet to trouble the judge in three 2025 starts having flopped in the Dante, flopped in The Derby and finished third in the Prix Jean Prat. At the available prices I think I will give this a miss but would not be surprised to see Christophe Lemaire completing a great weekend by the sea for the Japanese.

    The card opens with the Group 3 Prix Lady O’Reilly (12.58) featuring three British raiders. Charlie Johnston’s Caspi Star has blinkers fitted and could be given a chance on her third in the Cheshire Oaks (won by Minnie Hauk) but she was stone last in the Ribblesdale and third last in a Listed race so she would be a surprise today. Supporters of Sir Mark Prescott’s Content are backing her on potential, winner of a ten furlong novice when last seen and stepping up two furlongs here. It would be no surprise to see her go close for her shrewd trainer. The form of the home defence is closely tied up. Zia Agnese was third in the Prix de Psyche last time as being second last in the Prix de Diane. Before that she won the Prix Cleopatre and the third Indalimos subsequently ran second in the Prix de Royaumont where Ginalyah was fourth and Rabbit’s Foot fifth. So Christophe Soumillon’s mount looks the best chance of keeping the loot in France as Pinatique was last in a Vichy Listed race in July, Galene has blinkers put on after finishing second in a conditions race; and Kiamba was last seen in June winning a Longchamp Listed race where a short-priced Fabre filly flopped. I think the Euros will be heading back to the Gosden yard thanks to Ribblesdale runner up UNDERSTUDY. She disappointed last time finishing fifth in the Listed race where Caspi Star was eighth and she was second favourite but I hope that Oisin Murphy will get it right today.

    The second race on the card, the Listed Prix Nureyev (1.33), could have an impact on the Arc betting as several of the field are on the fringes of the Arc betting, five of the eight being overseas raiders. Mister Rizz has not been seen since coming home second last in the Dante and Sea Scout was last seen coming sixth in the Hampton Court at Ascot. Of the locals, Instant Fragile was last seen winning a Toulouse Listed race on heavy ground back in April and Thordis has a case of seconditis, most recently a Vichy Listed race following one at Bordeaux. The Gosdens send over Damysus, most recently last in The Derby but second in the Dante before that so clearly good enough for this level. He would be preferable to the British bookies’ favourite Jackknife, not seen since finishing third in the Heron Stakes in May. Andre Fabre’s well related Nitoi won the Prix de Suresnes (beating subsequent Grand Prix de Paris winner Leffard) but has not been out since flopping in the Prix Du Jockey Club. Is he using this as a stepping stone to Arc trials day? Dermot Weld’s Purview was second in the Leopardstown Derby Trial in May to Delacroix and was then not seen until going down by a short head in the Meld Stakes a month ago; and is my idea of the likely winner but I am not playing at 5/2 as this looks like turning into a sprint in the straight with so many hold up horses.
     
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  5. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Andre Fabre is on fire at the moment and Nitoi can prove better than he showed last time. This looks a winnable race with no outstanding candidate.

    1.33 Deau Nitoi 4/1
     
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  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Damysus left his Derby run well behind quickening really well to win comfortably. Nitoi also left his French Derby disappointment in the rear view mirror but could not match the Gosden colt's finishing burst. Something was amiss with Jackknife and Purview was never involved.

    In the big race there seemed more negatives than positives. I find it hard to weigh up Japanese contenders so passed on Ascoli Piceno at the price. Docklands won the Queen Anne in a mini upset but you have to go back more than two years for his previous win. Charlie Appleby says he remains hopeful that Notable Speech can land another Group 1 but Time form say that his best run this year was 108 and his official rating has subsided this year. Usually when trainers start messing about with a horse's trip it is because they are not performing to their best and running Notable Speech in the July Cup seemed a clutching at straws decision. Amazing that he went off a shortish Fav for that race but less surprising that he wasn't able to win in the new division and plenty to prove back at a mile in the upward cycle of the Yo-Yo.

    Dancing Gemini started the season on a good run but I am not sure how good that form has panned out and he maybe reached his limit.

    Zabiari is unbeaten this season but he won by a neck and the same last time up and has much more on his plate today.

    More or less by process of elimination I arrived at The Lion In Winter. He patently wasn't fit for the Guineas and was then sent on a fool's errand at Epsom. Under the circumstances I thought he ran a belter in the Prix Jean Prat when finishing well for third. The first two home that day were quite speedy types and today's trip should suit The Lion In Winter. The winner last time went on to be third in the Prix Maurice De Gheest behind Sajjir and Lazzat. O'brien also has Diego Valasquez but hopefully he is there for The Lion In Winter to chase down.

    2.50 Deauville The Lion In Winter 3/1

    Still lightly raced and can hopefully score after being badly placed in the early part of the season.
     
    #6
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2025 at 2:49 PM
  7. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    That was woeful from The Lion In Winter, never went a yard, running with his head clocked to one side all the way. Can't wait for Aidan's excuse. O'Brien must have a golden ring piece as whenever disaster strikes he still comes up trumps.
    After summoning all the speed of Red Rum in the July Cup, Notable Speech finished like a rat up a drain pipe and was unlucky not to win. His best run of the year by not far off a stone and he was gambled from about 8/1 last night to 10/3.

    Overall it's a division with no real star and surely Rosallion could have landed this if not for an alleged stone bruise that won't stop him running at Yoek next week. Must have stood on a grain of sand.

    In the next Daytona Beach seems an unusual runner for O'Brien. The son of Wootton Bassett is 2/2,with his first run nothing special but he won well next time and the runner up landed a Group 3 next time out. The Ballydoyle runner won over a mile last time but steps back to 7f today. Interesting but no odds today. One for next year's classics perhaps.
     
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  8. Janabelle13

    Janabelle13 Well-Known Member

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    Sam Sangster must be counting his lucky stars that he got the deal done prior to today's race for Diego Velazquez
     
    #8
  9. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Unplaced
     
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