The Queen’s Vase (3.05) is a nightmare: a three year old race where none of them have run over this far previously and almost impossible to determine how it will be run. Ratings may not be much help as something rated 80 that has been running over ten furlongs may suddenly improve for the extra half mile! So I will start by eliminating those whose collateral form simply does not make them look good enough even if they ran in the Derby. Scratch Al Wasl Storm, Furthur, Hallelujah U, Titanium Emperor and Too Soon. In reality Justify colt Scandinavia should be in that list as his Navan maiden win amounts to nothing and he might be the pacemaker for the yard’s Camelot colt Shackleton (fourth when favourite for the Gallinule), who has much more of a stayers’ profile. Devil’s Advocate was a close fourth in the Dante after running off like he was loose in a field and it is hard to tell if he wants this trip. There are two Frankel colts lining up and Pinhole was a long way behind the Derby winner in the Chester Vase whilst Rahiebb was second in a York handicap, his third such finish after winning a mile novice on the Newcastle kitty litter. Of the two I would probably prefer the Varian colt today. Spinning Wheel has done nothing wrong in winning both his starts and winning on the nod at Yarmouth last time the third was seven lengths behind; however, he set out to make all there and might need to find a lot more improvement in this much tougher event. French raider Asmarani, a son of Sottsass, won a twelve furlong maiden easily at his second attempt before coming up second best in the Prix Hocquart to subsequent Group 3 winner Rafale Design. He is now being asked to go further but I am more bothered about this being his first race on quick ground and this may not be run at a married man’s gallop. Other than the ubiquitous Ballydoyle raiders, the other Irish contender is CARMERS. He won on debut from off the pace at Ballinrobe and followed up in a Navan Listed race ridden nearer to the pace. The extra furlong will be no problem, he seems tactically flexible and he is a live contender for Paddy Twomey.
When Running Lion won the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (3.40) last year, the joint top rated horses were on 110 (previous year’s winner Rogue Millennium, favourite, ran fifth; second favourite Laurel ran second) and she was allowed to make most of the running. The Gosden’s grey mare warmed up for this with a fair second in a Haydock Listed race over ten furlongs but had been stone last behind two of today’s rivals in the Dahlia Stakes at HQ. I cannot see any grounds for her reversing that running; and second that day, 2024 1000 Guineas winner Elmalka, did nothing to advertise the form when fourth in the Prix d’Ispahan in her first run on soft ground. Obviously the drop back to a mile should help the Varian filly but the three pounds that she receives today from Cinderella’s Dream won’t bridge the four and a half length gap. Soprano won a Listed race on the Kempton kitty litter but that defeat of Crimson Advocate does not look good enough to trouble the Appleby filly, even though the Gosden filly subsequently won at Goodwood. One Look started her season in a Group 3 at The Curragh (where subsequent Oaks runner-up Whirl was unplaced favourite) but she followed up with a half length second to Porta Fortuna (gave 3lb) and that definitely puts her in with a solid chance here. French raider Start Of Day has never encountered ground this quick and her best effort was in last year’s Prix de l’Opera over ten furlongs when fifth, with Running Lion (second) and Fallen Angel (fourth) ahead. Last year’s Irish 1000 Guineas winner FALLEN ANGEL was subsequently beaten a length by Porta Fortuna in the Matron Stakes at levels (Soprano third) and made her seasonal bow in the Lockinge when Kieran Shoemark tried to make all on her and finished sixth. In receipt of 3lb from the Godolphin filly she is (just) the pick to continue Appleby’s Royal Ascot drought.
The betting on the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (4.20) is no reflection of the quality of the race. A good case can be made for at least five of the runners depending on how the race is run. Clearly Continuous is here as the pacemaker for the favourite: how quick will he go? Royal Champion won the Winter Derby on the Southwell kitty litter and was second in the 2023 Canadian International at Woodbine after winning the Wolferton Stakes over course and distance. His fourth in the Gordon Richards does not look good enough here, even though he finished ahead of See The Fire (fifth) that day. The third in the Gordon Richards, Almaqam, subsequently won the Brigadier Gerard claiming the scalp of previously unbeaten Ombudsman. That was an improved effort by the Godolphin colt, albeit in defeat, and he will have the services of William Buick today, who was last on him when he beat Start Of Day in a Longchamp Group 3. Can he make the necessary extra progress to be involved at the business end here? The two French raiders appear to have differing prospects. Facteur Cheval is making his first venture at this trip but was second in the Sussex Stakes and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in 2023. He was a well beaten third on dirt in Meydan before running sixth in the nine furlong Dubai Turf, a race he won in 2024. I do not see him improving his 0-3 Ascot record today. See The Fire has been added to this undoubtedly on the back of her impressive York win over the unreliable Beautiful Love; however, she has only beaten the boys once (a Group 3 at York) in three attempts. Anmaat opened his Group 1 account in a messy Champion Stakes over course and distance last October (See The Fire a never dangerous fifth, Los Angeles ninth and front running Continuous tenth). He started his 2025 campaign in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, where Continuous missed the kick and two other runners set the fractions. Race fit favourite Los Angeles prevailed that day by half a length after fighting back when headed by Owen Burrows gelding. Those two will be closely matched today and hopefully there won’t be too much scrimmaging in a field of eight! Lightly-raced MAP OF STARS (having only his eighth start today, five wins) was beaten a neck in the Group 1 Prix Ganay by Sosie and comes here in search of a first Group 1 success. Other than Ombudsman, he has the most scope to progress so the nearly £600k first prize might be getting converted to Euros.
