2025 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
- Thread starter Ron
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The layers were hardy running for cover after the Classic weekend at Epsom.
The only significant chances to the Arc market saw Derby winner Lambourn enter the top five in the list at 14/1 while Oaks winner Minnie Hauk is available at 20/1 and runner-up Whirl is 25/1. The Coronation Cup winner Jan Brueghel is also available at 20/1 in a couple of places. Derby fourth New Ground saw his odds half to 33/1.
Derby non runner Ruling Court remains at 25/1 and Oaks third Desert Flower is 33/1.
Next week’s Prix de Diane (French Oaks) at Chantilly will see Zarigana’s odds change. Many layers have her at 16/1 but she is available at 25/1 in places. Interestingly, the Prix de Diane ante post favourite Falakeyah is 40/1 and most of the layers are not offering an Arc price.
Francis-Henri Graffard’s Sunly won the Prix de Royaumont on the Prix Du Jockey Club card (winner Camille Pissarro 33/1) – a race that Aventure won en route to Arc second last term – and has been entered into some lists at 33/1. Most of the 16/1 Aventure has disappeared.
The most obvious recent change to the market is Tattersall Gold Cup winner Los Angeles now vying for favouritism with Sosie, although the O’Brien colt is generally 12/1 whereas the French colt is 10/1 across the board.
So the top ten in the Arc betting features just three members of the Classic generation, the two Epsom winners both new entries, and one Japanese horse, the 2024 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) and 2025 Dubai Sheema Classic winner Danon Decile at 20/1.
The only significant chances to the Arc market saw Derby winner Lambourn enter the top five in the list at 14/1 while Oaks winner Minnie Hauk is available at 20/1 and runner-up Whirl is 25/1. The Coronation Cup winner Jan Brueghel is also available at 20/1 in a couple of places. Derby fourth New Ground saw his odds half to 33/1.
Derby non runner Ruling Court remains at 25/1 and Oaks third Desert Flower is 33/1.
Next week’s Prix de Diane (French Oaks) at Chantilly will see Zarigana’s odds change. Many layers have her at 16/1 but she is available at 25/1 in places. Interestingly, the Prix de Diane ante post favourite Falakeyah is 40/1 and most of the layers are not offering an Arc price.
Francis-Henri Graffard’s Sunly won the Prix de Royaumont on the Prix Du Jockey Club card (winner Camille Pissarro 33/1) – a race that Aventure won en route to Arc second last term – and has been entered into some lists at 33/1. Most of the 16/1 Aventure has disappeared.
The most obvious recent change to the market is Tattersall Gold Cup winner Los Angeles now vying for favouritism with Sosie, although the O’Brien colt is generally 12/1 whereas the French colt is 10/1 across the board.
So the top ten in the Arc betting features just three members of the Classic generation, the two Epsom winners both new entries, and one Japanese horse, the 2024 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) and 2025 Dubai Sheema Classic winner Danon Decile at 20/1.
Nass, could you do a comparison of the performances of the Derby winner and the Coronation Cup winner, using overall and sectional times, taking account of ground conditions, wfa and sectional upgrades please
On top of that, I would imagine that JB will be much better suited to Longchamp than Epsom
On top of that, I would imagine that JB will be much better suited to Longchamp than Epsom
I can't. It's come up with that irritating "Sign in to prove you are a ****ing human" and I can't sign in
I can't. It's come up with that irritating "Sign in to prove you are a ****ing human" and I can't sign in
Weird I've never seen that on any device.
Anyway they were very impressed by Jan Brueghel based on his winning time in the Coronation Cup but thought he would be behind Los Angeles in the Ballydoyle pecking order.
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Shows that Lambourn was quicker by a second through the first furlong or so of the race. he then went through the next furlong faster too, getting 1.65 (7.5 lengths?) seconds up on Jan Brueghel. By a 7 furlongs to hone he had become behind JB by 0.14 second. This maxed at 1.46 seconds 5 furlongs out, before Lambourn put in a quick furlong. He then lost further being 2.6 (12 lengths?) seconds down on JB at the line.
Proform had the ground at -0.9 on Saturday at Derby time and +0.3 for the Coronation Cup, suggesting that comparing the two like for like misses out that the ground could have been slower for the Derby than the Coronation.
Cheers Nass. That is surprising as the ground was decribed as good to soft for the Coronation Cup and good/good to soft in places for the Derby. I think JB will be more suited to a flat track
But you'd expect JB to be faster wouldn't you, he's older? If they raced each other tomorrow wouldn't JB carry 12lb more than Lambourn? If that equates to 12 lengths then Lambourn surely would be very close to Jan Brueghel at w.f.a.. On the same ground wouldn't he be expected to beat JB with wfa?
Or does the comparison take into account wfa?
Or does the comparison take into account wfa?
I doubt it; it's strictly time based I think. Although JB is a 4yo, he is still a big baby and will surely be better on a flat track. He also stays 14f. I would be backing JB to beat both the classic winners in the Arc, even if Moore doesn't ride
Very true. I’ve not even bothered to look at that element, because to be honest I think both horses aren’t Arc winner quality.
In the two races at Epsom, both horses carried 9st 2lb. It they could meet in an all-aged race today, Jan Brueghel would have to give Lambourn 15lb of weight for age on the Northern Hemisphere WFA scale that the BHA uses. In a week from now that would drop to 14lb and in the first half of July it drops to 12lb. If by some miracle they met in the Eclipse it would be 10lb over ten furlongs.
In the Derby, Lambourn pretty much set off to do 13 second furlongs and continued to do that for the whole race, a relentless galloper. In the Coronation Cup, Continuous (under the subsequent Derby winning jockey) set out to make the fractions and was passed by his stablemate with a quarter of a mile to go and he then fought off Calandagan in the rise to the finish. Surely if you put Lambourn and Jan Brueghel in the same race, the three year old would set out to make the fractions and the older horse would try to sit behind him and pick him off at the business end of the race? Could he give him the weight and a beating?
I believe he would, over 12f on a flat track. I doubt extra weight would deter JB much and it remains to be seen whether less weight would make much difference to Lambourne. Hopefully they will both turn up at Longchamp and we will find out
No I don't think so based on the figures for these two races.. Weight is weight and I'm surprised Ron thinks it wouldn't slow down Jan Brueghel if he carried 10stone and Lambourn carried 9-2. I think both races were truly run, as Continuous made sure it was and Lambourn certainly did. Lambourn will improve more than Jan Brueghel over time which is why his weight allowance diminishes over time. This is all based on the times of 2 races run over the same course with the same weights.
If Jan Brueghel is a big baby then it's about time he got on with growing up and I don't think you can say he will improve more than Lambourn.
I agree with Nassau that neither on these performances are good enough to win an Arc: they'd have to show more.
I hope that we get to find out whether Jan Brueghel can give WFA and a beating to Lambourn (although I suspect they might be kept apart as they both come from Ballydoyle). I am minded to think that he can because I think that the merit of the Coronation Cup is greater than the Derby. I wonder which one Ryan Moore would choose in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes: Jan Brueghel 9st 9lb or Lambourn 8st 12lb.
I have seen that some are comparing Lambourn’s victory to that of Serpentine, who won the Covid Derby having been allowed to steal the race. I think that is an unfair comparison as Lambourn did not steal victory by jumping to a lead, setting a crawl and then taking a breather before going again. Lambourn ran almost the whole race at an even pace and it is not the jockey’s fault if his main opponents never laid down a challenge. As well as everything going wrong for the first two in the betting, the French horse New Ground that finished fourth hardly helped his cause by getting in a muck sweat before the race and a more experienced jockey might have got going sooner and possibly even finished second.
Obviously the Coronation Cup was the fastest of the three Group 1s run at Epsom (thanks to Continuous pacemaking) but if one starts from the premise that Calandagan ran close to his official rating then that makes it easiest to justify Jan Brueghel’s new rating (and possibly a couple of pounds more) whereas it looks too easy to pick holes in the two Classics, especially the fillies’ one.
If Lambourn goes to the Irish Derby, how many of those that were vanquished at Epsom will re-oppose? Why do I have the feeling that it will be a single figure field and most of the ‘opposition’ will come from Ballydoyle?