Just out of interest, has anyone tried using AI to get a handle on the handicaps this year? I just asked ChatGPT to give me the most likely winner of the Fred Winter based on historical trends and here is what it answered: Based on historical trends and current insights, several horses stand out as strong contenders for the 2025 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Stencil Paul Nicholls' Stencil is currently leading the betting markets, priced at 6/1. After an impressive performance behind East India Dock on Trials Day, Stencil has garnered attention. Notably, French-bred horses like Stencil have historically performed well in this race. Total Look Trained by Gavin Cromwell, Total Look has shown promise in his three hurdle runs in Ireland. With a background of a 79 rating on the flat, he currently holds odds of 7/1. Willy De Houelle Despite Willie Mullins not having secured a win in this race yet, his entrant Willy De Houelle is noteworthy. Initially considered for the Triumph Hurdle, Willy De Houelle has adjusted his course and is now a contender here, with odds around 8/1. Puturhandstogether A supercomputer analysis predicts that Puturhandstogether will win the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, indicating a strong chance for this horse. Historical Trends Recent trends indicate that Irish trainers have dominated this race, winning the last seven renewals. Additionally, horses making their handicap debut and those carrying 11-00 or more have been successful. Considering these factors, Stencil and Total Look emerge as leading contenders for this year's Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. However, the race's competitive nature means that other entrants, such as Willy De Houelle and Puturhandstogether, also warrant attention.
Load of old bollocks ChatGPT - for a start Stencil isn't trained by Paul Nicholls. Also one of the most important stats rules out Willy De Houelle and Stencil: "Rating – 9/12 winners were rated between 122 and 134"
With final decs not until Sunday, here are my 4 against the field after studying the Fred Winter entries, their form and historical stats. I've taken the weights band of 10-06 to 11-05 as this has provided 9 of the last 12 winners. Also looking for at least 1 seasonal victory over hurdles. Beyond Your Dreams 7/1 - I was very impressed by his victory at Fairyhouse mid-December (came home with a wet sail to collar Slurricane who is himself a decent yardstick in this). I can't help thinking he's been put away for this. Hot Fuss 14/1 - won a 2m flat handicap off 88 as a warm-up for this and certainly not disgraced in the Finale at Chepstow prior to that. If it comes up testing he has a chance. Liam Swagger 25/1 - a huge price as he would be completely chucked in off a mark of 124 in my opinion (also holds Triumph Entry). He lost his unbeaten hurdles record in rather unsatisfactory fashion at Newbury (got bogged down on soft ground carrying a double penalty) but he is surely much better than 124 on good spring ground. Won his prep race on the flat at Southwell. Solar Drive 50/1 - he will likely try and do it the hard way from the front but he ran a belter under those tactics at Musselburgh when just going down to St Pancras (subsequently 2nd in the Adonis) and his Irish form ties in with the likes of Slurricane. Could grab a place at nice odds.
Any idea why FOB didn't declare Kaylan in the Bumper..Woods was gushing all week about him and wouldn't be out of the 1st 3..
Beyond excited I have an interest in a Cheltenham runner. General Medrano in the Grand Annual. Realistically unlikely to win, but still.
Salubrious. How easy was that. Given the way the Champion Hurdle fell to pieces she would have won that hard held after State Man fell.
Finished 8th, but for fluffing his lines at the last he would have been closer. Still great to have a runner at the festival (even if I only own a couple of hairs)
Majborough 6/1 for next years Champion Chase. Jesus I do hope Willie has the phone number of the Irish version of Laura Collett. If he doesnt massively improve his jumping he’ll be back over hurdles.
