Cheltenham Antepost thread

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They seem to be talking up a lot of Gavin Cromwell's this year - I don't have an opinion either way but I'm hearing a lot of mentions for a lot of his horses.
 
Not really an ante post and I'm putting it here more to remind myself, but having had a first look at the Fred Winter (will have a more detailed study Wednesday afternoon after the 6 day entries are out) I am keen on the chances of Joseph O'Brien's Beyond Your Dreams. After a fairly moderate flat career this daughter of Fastnet Rock, out of an unraced Galileo mare, ran second twice before winning in her last start just before Christmas. It was a really good win too, as she made a right mess of the second last hurdle before coming home with a wet sail to overhaul Slurricane in the shadow of the post:

https://www.racingtv.com/watch/replays/2024-12-14/fairyhouse/1230

Slurricane has since won a handicap hurdle at Punchestown off 115 (beating another one of Joseph's in Out For A Stroll) and is also entered in the Fred Winter off 126. I think that puts Beyond Your Dream quite well in off a mark of 123 in the Fred Winter - without that mistake at Fairyhouse she would have won very easily and I think she is ahead of her mark. Clearly I'm not the only one as she is around the 10/1 mark and I will definitely wait until the day of the race to back one in this.
 
Triumph
Gibbs Island 20/1 e/w NRNB Lads and Coral three places, 16/1 NRNB three places others
 
OddDog said:
Not really an ante post and I'm putting it here more to remind myself, but having had a first look at the Fred Winter (will have a more detailed study Wednesday afternoon after the 6 day entries are out) I am keen on the chances of Joseph O'Brien's Beyond Your Dreams. After a fairly moderate flat career this daughter of Fastnet Rock, out of an unraced Galileo mare, ran second twice before winning in her last start just before Christmas. It was a really good win too, as she made a right mess of the second last hurdle before coming home with a wet sail to overhaul Slurricane in the shadow of the post:

https://www.racingtv.com/watch/replays/2024-12-14/fairyhouse/1230

Slurricane has since won a handicap hurdle at Punchestown off 115 (beating another one of Joseph's in Out For A Stroll) and is also entered in the Fred Winter off 126. I think that puts Beyond Your Dream quite well in off a mark of 123 in the Fred Winter - without that mistake at Fairyhouse she would have won very easily and I think she is ahead of her mark. Clearly I'm not the only one as she is around the 10/1 mark and I will definitely wait until the day of the race to back one in this.
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Ruby Walsh fancies her too. That's the end of that then <laugh>
 
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SaveTheHumans said:
Could Lossiemouth end up in the Mares hurdle, I wonder? I see she is 4/1 second favourite in the market for it and Brighterdaysahead is a shades off odds on for the event. Look to the Champion Hurdle and Brighterdays is 4/1 second favourite behind Con Hill, where Lossiemouth is third favourite at 5/1. Given there isn't a whole lot between them in the market should they both go to the Champion Hurdle, it makes the Mares betting market seem a bit skewed. After her fall Sunday and with State Man seemingly looking back to himself again, I just wonder if Willie will pop her in there. She is definitely value if so. Brighterdaysahead is extremely talented but I think that win lto is not a true reflection of solid form and I also feel she will be better up a distance so I feel there wouldn't necessarily be a lot between them.

Just a thought to ponder.
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This is going to plan so far, Lossiemouth now 4/7 after strong market support indicate that plans have perhaps been already made. I won't hold my breath yet though until I see her at the starting pole. No foregone conclusion she wins either but the price was worth the risk at the time I felt with it looking like the most obvious outcome.
 
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SaveTheHumans said:
This is going to plan so far, Lossiemouth now 4/7 after strong market support indicate that plans have perhaps been already made. I won't hold my breath yet though until I see her at the starting pole. No foregone conclusion she wins either but the price was worth the risk at the time I felt with it looking like the most obvious outcome.
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I was wondering whether Kargese would be running in the Mares Hurdle but I see she also has an entry in the County Hurdle where she gets a mark of 141. She has 4 wins (including 2 grade 1 juvenile hurdles last season) and five 2nd places (including to Majborough in the Triumph and Sir Gino at Aintree) so I would put her potentially much better than 141. You have to excuse the poor run at Ascot but I wonder whether the County has been the plan all along, given the abundance of good mares around. Mind she is only 9/1 for the County Hurdle so has definitely been found in the market.
 
A few more added to the AP bets...

Busselton in the Cross Country @ 14/1
Jazzy Matty in the Grand Annual @ 10/1
Trelawne in the Ultima @ 20/1
Comfort Zone in the Coral @ 16/1

Not long now...<ok> <cheers>
 
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OddDog said:
I was wondering whether Kargese would be running in the Mares Hurdle but I see she also has an entry in the County Hurdle where she gets a mark of 141. She has 4 wins (including 2 grade 1 juvenile hurdles last season) and five 2nd places (including to Majborough in the Triumph and Sir Gino at Aintree) so I would put her potentially much better than 141. You have to excuse the poor run at Ascot but I wonder whether the County has been the plan all along, given the abundance of good mares around. Mind she is only 9/1 for the County Hurdle so has definitely been found in the market.
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The County is an absolute riddle Oddy. I’ve earmarked Willie’s Tounisvator for that one. No bet yet as he has multiple entries but if he ends up here he’ll be burdened with my dosh.
 
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Sorry had put this is the main thread

Generally only do e/w multiples in the handicaps at the festival. Usually a quick way to the poorhouse and many years it has been with a couple of exceptions that have made up for it.
The ones that I have been including since NRNB are;
Happygolucky in the Ultima (40/1 down to 25/1) also have Broadway boy (20/1 to 12/1) and Malina's Girl in a few but only recently so 14/1
Hot Fuss (20/1 to 12/1) in the Fred Winter - had Wendrock but since the weights have written him off
Gericault Roque (20/1 down to 12/1) in the National Hunt

Others that I have included since NRNB are
Third time lucki (50/1 to 33/1)in the grand annual and delighted that it looks like he will make it
Busselton (20/1 to 8/1) in the cross country
Grozni (50/1 to 33/1) in the Kim Muir but unlikely to get in
Be aware (12/1 to 7/1) Coral cup
Wodhooh (10/1 to 5/1) in the Martin pipe - was happy until Kopek de mee looks to be going here
Elliotts in the bumper
Pied Piper unfortunately in the county but also have Lark in the morning and Absurde but not at fancy prices
Crebilly in the plate (12/1 to 8/1)
There are others but not many - lots of canadian's, yankees, trebles etc's
 
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Grand Annual
An Peann Dearg 12/1 e/w NRNB Lads and Coral four places, 11/1 NRNB bet365 and sky five places
 
Mares Chase
Telepathique 12/1 e/w NRNB Lads and Coral three places, 10/1 NRNB others
 
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