Everybody else that had Mill Stream on their ATR Tracker obviously piled on as the price collapsed from 8/1 to 4/1 and it prevailed by a flared nostril in the Duke Of York Stakes on the first day of the Dante meeting. Thursday’s ATR Tracker email has arrived but I already knew the horse was running and I won’t be involved.
The Derby is still quite open if you are not in the camp that believes all the waffle about the Ballydoyle wonder horse’s heart rate. I think it will probably be 100/1 on the Exchanges by Tattenham Corner.
So the last of the big trials at York might be pretty much our last chance to glean any form clues for the big day.
Seven face the starter at 3:45 and some sort of case can be made for most of them. War Rooms will start the outsider of the field as he had a distant view of the favourite’s stablemate in the Sandown Classic Trial and there is no evidence from two juvenile runs to suggest he just wants good ground and a flat track. His easy debut win was on soft ground and he was third in a Listed race under the same conditions (a race won by Poulains runner up Dancing Gemini). Having raced just twice, Economics needs a big step up on his odds-on win in a mile maiden at Newbury but clearly he must be regarded well by connections to be in the line up. Despite having had several entered, Aidan O’Brien has supplemented Cambridge into this having sent Diego Velazquez to Longchamp on Sunday (fourth in the Poulains). The fact that he is rated a 14/1 shot by the bookies is a clear indication that they were not impressed by his more than six length fourth in the Craven but the Poulains third Alcantor was behind him that day. Caviar Heights trailed in last in the Royal Lodge as a two year old, where Al Musmak was runner up. He started his Classic campaign with third in the Feilden, where subsequent Lingfield winner Ambiente Friendly was fourth; and won the Newmarket Stakes, reversing previous placings with Whip Cracker, so he comes here with realistic prospects. He obviously has a fitness edge over Al Musmak, who has not been out of the first two in four starts, winning a Listed race before that Royal Lodge second, finishing ahead of Macduff both times. God’s Window completely fluffed his lines in the Dee Stakes and deserves another chance but he has something to find with Ancient Wisdom, who beat him in the Futurity at Doncaster last October and is clearly the form pick. He won the Autumn Stakes with Ambiente Friendly third and Aidan O’Brien has declined to send runner up Chief Little Rock for a rematch. He seems indifferent to the going and his only reverse was when third in the Pat Eddery, where Al Musmak was second. At the cramped odds, I will just be watching my Tracker horse Ancient Wisdom today. If he turns out to be ring rusty then he would go to Epsom as not the first horse to be beaten in the Dante before going to the Blue Riband.
The Middleton looks like fascinating renewal with Free Wind back to try and start her campaign with a repeat victory. Bluestocking came close to Group 1 glory at the end of last season and Godolphin’s Sapphire Seas was runner up in a Group 2 in Meydan at the start of this year. Placed in the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks as a three year old, Caernarfon will need to improve on her debut effort to trouble the principals today. Infinite Cosmos only has four races on her CV, having finished third to Sapphire Seas when last seen, but she resides with the trainer most known for developing older horses so she could improve past the more seasoned campaigners here.
The last race today might only be a three year old handicap but that old adage about topweights in them might be interesting as that place belongs to London City, a rare handicap foray by Aidan O’Brien with a son of Classic winning filly Winter.
