Betfair Chase
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Be lucky to get placed Cyc - up against Oscar Whiskey, Celestial Halo, King of the Night
The more I think about it, the more I REALLY fancy Weird Al in the Betfair. 7/1 is yummy to me
We all know Denman was the better chaser, and would have won the 2009 Gold Cup, had he lined up fit and well. He was in such a bad way, in the build up to the race, that Nicholls was considering not even running him.*
There was no pace in the 09 Gold Cup, because Denman wasn't fit enough to make the running like in 08, and Sam Thomas was even instructed, to look after him.*
In 2008 a fully fit Denman proved far to good for Kauto Star. KS could not live with Denmans high cruising, and outstanding jumping. Denman took Kauto Star out of his comfort zone, and KS was a tired beaten horse, along way from home, were as in 09 they crawled, because Denman was not capable of making the race a truly run race.*
As for those who believe the condition was minor, think again. Denman could not do any exercise, for almost 8 months, after the treatment. Vets believe the treatment has similar effects on a horse's body as that of Chemotherapy, and Denman had to recieve 3 doses, as he did not respond to the treatment on the first 2 occasions, which left him very sick for almost 8 months.*
Denman was the best horse of his generation prior to the heart problem, he was unbeaten over fences, and had beaten all of his big rivals, including KS. Since the Heart condition he has won 1 race in 3 years, so he is clearly not anywhere near as good.*
As for Long Run and the King George, I do believe Long Run is a better horse around Kempton than KS ever was. KSs win in 2009 was impressive, but it was a freak race, the 2nd Madison De Berlais was beaten 37 lenghs off a mark of 162, only 2 months later at Kempton in the Racing Post Trophy, over course and distance, and had lost to KS by 25 lenghs in the Betfair Chase, he was a horse on the down grade, and was knowere near his best. The only decent horse in the race, was Imperial Commander, and we all know he is a donkey unless fresh.*
Horses don't just improve 10+ pounds for one race, and then decline 10+ pounds, particularly a French bred 9yo. Yes on the bare distances you could argue hd ran to 193, but when you actually analyse the race properly its quite clear it was a freak race, that flattered KS.*
If he was realy capable of running 193, then why has he only ever done it once, it's like a 100m athlete running 9.50, having never broken 10 seconds, and then never breaking it again, these things don't happen. This is the same handicapper who rated Master Minded 186 afterall.*
I have no doubt in my mind that KS in his prime would not have stopped Long Run last season.*
As for KS winning on Saturday, save your money guys, he has absolutely no chance. I warned you all in last years King George that Long Run would beat him, I warned you not to back him in last years Gold Cup, but no one listened. Again im saying he wont win, there is no need to throw your sentimental money, into the bookies back pocket.*
He can't win
*
There was no pace in the 09 Gold Cup, because Denman wasn't fit enough to make the running like in 08, and Sam Thomas was even instructed, to look after him.*
In 2008 a fully fit Denman proved far to good for Kauto Star. KS could not live with Denmans high cruising, and outstanding jumping. Denman took Kauto Star out of his comfort zone, and KS was a tired beaten horse, along way from home, were as in 09 they crawled, because Denman was not capable of making the race a truly run race.*
As for those who believe the condition was minor, think again. Denman could not do any exercise, for almost 8 months, after the treatment. Vets believe the treatment has similar effects on a horse's body as that of Chemotherapy, and Denman had to recieve 3 doses, as he did not respond to the treatment on the first 2 occasions, which left him very sick for almost 8 months.*
Denman was the best horse of his generation prior to the heart problem, he was unbeaten over fences, and had beaten all of his big rivals, including KS. Since the Heart condition he has won 1 race in 3 years, so he is clearly not anywhere near as good.*
As for Long Run and the King George, I do believe Long Run is a better horse around Kempton than KS ever was. KSs win in 2009 was impressive, but it was a freak race, the 2nd Madison De Berlais was beaten 37 lenghs off a mark of 162, only 2 months later at Kempton in the Racing Post Trophy, over course and distance, and had lost to KS by 25 lenghs in the Betfair Chase, he was a horse on the down grade, and was knowere near his best. The only decent horse in the race, was Imperial Commander, and we all know he is a donkey unless fresh.*
Horses don't just improve 10+ pounds for one race, and then decline 10+ pounds, particularly a French bred 9yo. Yes on the bare distances you could argue hd ran to 193, but when you actually analyse the race properly its quite clear it was a freak race, that flattered KS.*
If he was realy capable of running 193, then why has he only ever done it once, it's like a 100m athlete running 9.50, having never broken 10 seconds, and then never breaking it again, these things don't happen. This is the same handicapper who rated Master Minded 186 afterall.*
I have no doubt in my mind that KS in his prime would not have stopped Long Run last season.*
As for KS winning on Saturday, save your money guys, he has absolutely no chance. I warned you all in last years King George that Long Run would beat him, I warned you not to back him in last years Gold Cup, but no one listened. Again im saying he wont win, there is no need to throw your sentimental money, into the bookies back pocket.*
He can't win
*
Shergar, nice to see your Denman-tinted glasses making a reappearance once again. 
Funny that the foot abscess that set Kauto Star back before the 2008 Gold Cup is conveniently ignored . . .
In all seriousness can we please refrain from the Kauto bashing. This is a thread about the Betfair Chase and not the relative merits of two of the finest steeplechasers in history. It would be disappointing if Ron felt the need to close the thread.
Funny that the foot abscess that set Kauto Star back before the 2008 Gold Cup is conveniently ignored . . .
In all seriousness can we please refrain from the Kauto bashing. This is a thread about the Betfair Chase and not the relative merits of two of the finest steeplechasers in history. It would be disappointing if Ron felt the need to close the thread.
Back on track, and analysing Kauto/Long Run form lines in regards to the Betfair chase. I think one thing that made me question the level of the King George last year was that Nacarat had actually got both Kauto Star and Long Run off the bridle. Kauto was within 2 lengths before he hit the second last, and that was despite not really being in any rhythm and also being niggled away at by McCoy. That's the reason why I think at short prices, at least for now, Long Run is worth taking on as a layer, especially with little exposure. I also think he is better at Cheltenham- it seemed to me the further he went the better, and I think if he is vulnerable anywhere this season, it will be at Haydock this weekend and Kempton on Boxing Day. I'd much rather be on him at Cheltenham. He seemed to have a serious amount of stamina when it came down to it. I'd like to think that if the King George lines up as it currently is shaping, it will be a great race and will be one of Long Runs biggest tests, as Captain Chris, Somersby, and Master Minded, if they are ever going to get 3m, would be at Kempton.
My problem this weekend is finding the horse that might beat him in the Betfair. I'm gonna stick with Time For Rupert as I just think there is still an awful lot to come from him and he jumped really impressively in the Charlie Hall. He might also get the run of the race with no Nacarat, and I think if he can get a bit of daylight, Long Run might have a fight on to pick him up as he does seem to take a little while to pick up, but when he does he seems to stay and stay.
My problem this weekend is finding the horse that might beat him in the Betfair. I'm gonna stick with Time For Rupert as I just think there is still an awful lot to come from him and he jumped really impressively in the Charlie Hall. He might also get the run of the race with no Nacarat, and I think if he can get a bit of daylight, Long Run might have a fight on to pick him up as he does seem to take a little while to pick up, but when he does he seems to stay and stay.
Top Class......in the Gold Cup last season, Long Run looked to get better the further they went, because the ground was very lively, hence the course record. At one point in the Gold Cup, he looked beat, and he did brush through the top of a few fences, costing him ground, but like you say he kept on staying on. I believe it is very unlikely that Long Run will ever come across ground that fast at Cheltenham again.
In the KG the ground was soft, and at no point did Long Run look to be in trouble. Kempton is a flatter track, and Long Run doesnt have any problems jumping around there, and put in a much better round than in the Gold Cup.
The ground is forecast to be good on Saturday, though we all know what Haydocks like, it is arguably the boggiest track in the country. The course is flat like Kempton, so I can see Long Run putting in another good round of jumping like in the KG.
I feel the only way Long Run is voulnerable, is on lively ground in a slowly run race
In the KG the ground was soft, and at no point did Long Run look to be in trouble. Kempton is a flatter track, and Long Run doesnt have any problems jumping around there, and put in a much better round than in the Gold Cup.
The ground is forecast to be good on Saturday, though we all know what Haydocks like, it is arguably the boggiest track in the country. The course is flat like Kempton, so I can see Long Run putting in another good round of jumping like in the KG.
I feel the only way Long Run is voulnerable, is on lively ground in a slowly run race
Diamond harry to run a big race for me in this on saturday!! Came a second within breaking the course record, if repeats that form he will give long run a good run for his money, but still think Long run will win though!
I absolutely agree with what you say Toppy. I have said ever since his Gold Cup triumph that i can see him being vulnerable in the King George. To me he looks every inch the out and out stayer now and just think a horse with a little more pace or a better turn of foot might be good enough to beat him round Kempton. However, it would seem that the Gold Cup, with the emphasis on stamina, is a test for which he is more suited. I am surprised by the available antepost prices but think this is largely down to the 'he doesn't handle Cheltenham' argument, which is rubbish in my opinion. He was over the top in the RSA, and outpaced in the Paddy Power.
I would be keen to take him on this weekend if there were 3 places available for the EW money. As it is, with just the two places, i don't think i can justify getting involved. I think it would have been a terrific betting heat if all 8 had stood their ground, but with just the 6 going to post, i think the value has gone.
The ground could well be a crucial factor (good at the moment and no rain forecast).
Diamond Harry - Would certainly prefer some cut. All his form is on softer and the one time he faced good ground was when pulled up in the RSA (though the ground was unlikely to have been the reason).
Kauto Star - Seems to go on pretty much anything, barring heavy, but will love the good ground and has shown he handles it well.
Long Run - Won the Gold Cup impressively on good but would no doubt prefer a little more ease, given that he looked outpaced at times.
Pure Faith - Has been running on fast ground but surely outclassed here.
Time For Rupert - 2nd in the World Hurdle on good and in the Charlie Hall (but i think it was a bit dead). That said i think he would appreciate a little cut to bring his stamina into play. Analysis on the Spotlight thread by TopClass suggests he is better with cut.
Weird Al - Won the Charlie Hall on good (looked a bit dead) but has generally raced on softer than good with his only previous effort on good when pulled up in the GC.
The ground seems sure to be near good, and i suspect it will be genuine good ground come the day. It is fair to say that most of the horses would be suited by a little more ease in the ground. The one exception is Kauto Star.
If you had asked me a couple of weeks ago if i fancied him for the race i would have said definitely not. However, having analysed the GC and KG form closely, i think he has less ground to make up with Long Run than those races might suggest. Furthermore, conditions seems to be falling in his favour (and against the others). The more i look at it the more i like his chances. I am not for a minute saying he is going to win (it would be utterly brilliant if he could) but i do think conditions are in his favour. If he doesn't run well this weekend then we can safely say that is the end of his glorious career.
Also, read what you like into it but Clive Smith is making the trip to Haydock to watch Kauto, and not going to Ascot to see Master Minded. Might be significant, might not be. I suspect it doesn't mean a lot because Kauto is his undoubted 'horse of a lifetime' and it would be surprising if he wasn't there for what might well be his last race.
I would be keen to take him on this weekend if there were 3 places available for the EW money. As it is, with just the two places, i don't think i can justify getting involved. I think it would have been a terrific betting heat if all 8 had stood their ground, but with just the 6 going to post, i think the value has gone.
The ground could well be a crucial factor (good at the moment and no rain forecast).
Diamond Harry - Would certainly prefer some cut. All his form is on softer and the one time he faced good ground was when pulled up in the RSA (though the ground was unlikely to have been the reason).
Kauto Star - Seems to go on pretty much anything, barring heavy, but will love the good ground and has shown he handles it well.
Long Run - Won the Gold Cup impressively on good but would no doubt prefer a little more ease, given that he looked outpaced at times.
Pure Faith - Has been running on fast ground but surely outclassed here.
Time For Rupert - 2nd in the World Hurdle on good and in the Charlie Hall (but i think it was a bit dead). That said i think he would appreciate a little cut to bring his stamina into play. Analysis on the Spotlight thread by TopClass suggests he is better with cut.
Weird Al - Won the Charlie Hall on good (looked a bit dead) but has generally raced on softer than good with his only previous effort on good when pulled up in the GC.
The ground seems sure to be near good, and i suspect it will be genuine good ground come the day. It is fair to say that most of the horses would be suited by a little more ease in the ground. The one exception is Kauto Star.
If you had asked me a couple of weeks ago if i fancied him for the race i would have said definitely not. However, having analysed the GC and KG form closely, i think he has less ground to make up with Long Run than those races might suggest. Furthermore, conditions seems to be falling in his favour (and against the others). The more i look at it the more i like his chances. I am not for a minute saying he is going to win (it would be utterly brilliant if he could) but i do think conditions are in his favour. If he doesn't run well this weekend then we can safely say that is the end of his glorious career.
Also, read what you like into it but Clive Smith is making the trip to Haydock to watch Kauto, and not going to Ascot to see Master Minded. Might be significant, might not be. I suspect it doesn't mean a lot because Kauto is his undoubted 'horse of a lifetime' and it would be surprising if he wasn't there for what might well be his last race.
I can't see anything other than Long Run winning this. It is a little bit of a shame that Master Minded isn't running in this race but the plan seems to be to take on Long Run in the King George.
I have a feeling Diamond Harry will give Long Run a hell of a race tomorrow. Granted he could probably do with some rain over night but a small field race, one of his favourite tracks and first time out (where he has excelled the last few seasons) tell me he might be able to push the champ close here. Long Run is unlikely to be fully wound up for this and the form merits of last season Gold Cup and King George's are still in some doubt to me.
Such a strong field and yet there's question marks over everyone of them:
TFR - looks held by Weird Al on all acounts having received weight from him LTO. With a softening of the ground before tomorrow looking unlikely he looks hard to back imho.
Kauto Star - questions remain over how good he still is. Two disappointing runs (by his standards) have lead to people suggesting he's too old. This may or may not be the case. Perhaps best watched, especially given that if he has half a chance going towards the last I'm sure we'll all be yelling him on anyway.
Weird Al - A very good horse of that there is no doubt. But, good enough? Still relatively unexposed he looked good when winning the Charlie Hall. In the Gold Cup and Hennessey he supposedly wasn't in tip top shape and other than those two races he hasn't really raced top, top level opposition (whether TFR is top, top class remains to be seen) so it remains to be seen whether he's in with a decent chance here. Let's hope so. Perhaps another who could do with more cut
Long Run - has to be the stand-out here on last season's form and it's scary to think he may be even better. But he's easily avoidable at evens when you consider this is his first run of the season. Definately the one to beat here, though I've been interested by comments made on this board in recent days that he might not be able to dominate as much as he did at Cheltenham given that this race doesn't require the same ability to stay
Diamond Harry - This is his first run of the season but that shouldn't be a problem. This horse definately divides opinion and tomorrow will perhaps answer our questions though he's another that, if beaten, can play the 'needed more cut card'
Pure Faith - Would be a shock need I say more!
So, for my money, all of these horses have a credible excuse if beaten and that, for me, takes a little bit of the gloss off of the occasion. Still, the strongest field of the season so far is something to get excited about I suppose!!
TFR - looks held by Weird Al on all acounts having received weight from him LTO. With a softening of the ground before tomorrow looking unlikely he looks hard to back imho.
Kauto Star - questions remain over how good he still is. Two disappointing runs (by his standards) have lead to people suggesting he's too old. This may or may not be the case. Perhaps best watched, especially given that if he has half a chance going towards the last I'm sure we'll all be yelling him on anyway.
Weird Al - A very good horse of that there is no doubt. But, good enough? Still relatively unexposed he looked good when winning the Charlie Hall. In the Gold Cup and Hennessey he supposedly wasn't in tip top shape and other than those two races he hasn't really raced top, top level opposition (whether TFR is top, top class remains to be seen) so it remains to be seen whether he's in with a decent chance here. Let's hope so. Perhaps another who could do with more cut
Long Run - has to be the stand-out here on last season's form and it's scary to think he may be even better. But he's easily avoidable at evens when you consider this is his first run of the season. Definately the one to beat here, though I've been interested by comments made on this board in recent days that he might not be able to dominate as much as he did at Cheltenham given that this race doesn't require the same ability to stay
Diamond Harry - This is his first run of the season but that shouldn't be a problem. This horse definately divides opinion and tomorrow will perhaps answer our questions though he's another that, if beaten, can play the 'needed more cut card'
Pure Faith - Would be a shock need I say more!
So, for my money, all of these horses have a credible excuse if beaten and that, for me, takes a little bit of the gloss off of the occasion. Still, the strongest field of the season so far is something to get excited about I suppose!!
Nicky Henderson had 3 winners at Ascot and 2 at Haydock today, and the bookies are pushing Long Run out to Evens.
So I'm starting to think he is good value at Evens, probably worth a good bet
So I'm starting to think he is good value at Evens, probably worth a good bet
Long Run is the only logical choice.
His best form will be more than good enough to win this,whether he has improved or not.
Always interesting to see how these French horses progress and how much improvement they actually achieve,given they are often battle hardened from an early age.Master minded had his finest moment,ratings wise,as a 5-y-o.
Long Run has already had 18 races.Interesting to see how this season pans out for him.
His best form will be more than good enough to win this,whether he has improved or not.
Always interesting to see how these French horses progress and how much improvement they actually achieve,given they are often battle hardened from an early age.Master minded had his finest moment,ratings wise,as a 5-y-o.
Long Run has already had 18 races.Interesting to see how this season pans out for him.
Nicky Henderson had 3 winners at Ascot and 2 at Haydock today, and the bookies are pushing Long Run out to Evens.
So I'm starting to think he is good value at Evens, probably worth a good bet
As big as 11/10 with William Hill.
Absolutely agree that is starting to look like a very big price. I was a little worried by the ground for him but all reports seems to suggest it is riding a lot slower than good, and the official description has now been changed to g/s. He must surely win this race more than 50% of the time . . .
I wasn't with him at odds on but at odds against he is looking tempting. I will probably hold fire until the morning. It might be that the big firms want to take him on and the Saturday morning price war might push him out a bit. Hard to see him going bigger than 11/10 I suppose.
Zen.....Haydock is a mudlarks track, it generally rides slow, it certainly won't be anywhere near as lively as the Gold Cup.
11/10 is to good to be true, particularly with the Henderson form. He was the best horse last year, and he's still only 6, so I don't see any reason to think he will be slowing up, if anything he should be still improving
11/10 is to good to be true, particularly with the Henderson form. He was the best horse last year, and he's still only 6, so I don't see any reason to think he will be slowing up, if anything he should be still improving
Zen.....Haydock is a mudlarks track, it generally rides slow, it certainly won't be anywhere near as lively as the Gold Cup.
11/10 is to good to be true, particularly with the Henderson form. He was the best horse last year, and he's still only 6, so I don't see any reason to think he will be slowing up, if anything he should be still improving
Is he a 'Shergar Shoe-In' tomorrow Shergs?
Also 11/10 with Paddy Power now.
That's why I'm pondering about taking the 11/10. The old saying is if something looks too good to be true then it usually is... Maybe he needs the run pretty badly.