Daily Racing Thread Saturday 5th. August 2023

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attivo

attivo

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Jan 23, 2014
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Saturday's Meetings

Glorious Goodwood
Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:20p.m.
Galway Festival
Mixed 8 Races 1:55-5:55p.m.
Newmarket
Flat 6 Races 2:05-5:00p.m.
Doncaster
Flat 6 Races 2:10-5:05p.m.
Thirsk
Flat 6 Races 2:15-5:10p.m.
Lingfield(E)
Flat 6 Races 5:45-8:15p.m.
Hamilton(E)
Flat 6 Races 6:00-8:30p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Sporting Life
Racing Post

Good Luck <ok>
 
In the 16:35 at Deauville today, a Group-3 Stakes over an extended 1m4f, on heavy going, will have a modest punt on the filly, Lastotchka. Form indiicates she will definitely handle the heavy ground, and the distance is no problem for her.
5/1 best price in nearly all places at time of writing.

Now to wade through the UK and Ireland cards! Goodwood seems to be one big trap of a card, not falling for it today! Will go somewhere else for my 'also rans' <whistle> :emoticon-0100-smile
 
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SwanHills said:
In the 16:35 at Deauville today, a Group-3 Stakes over an extended 1m4f, on heavy going, will have a modest punt on the filly, Lastotchka. Form indiicates she will definitely handle the heavy ground, and the distance is no problem for her.
5/1 best price in nearly all places at time of writing.

Now to wade through the UK and Ireland cards! Goodwood seems to be one big trap of a card, not falling for it today! Will go somewhee else for my 'also rans' <whistle> :emoticon-0100-smile
Click to expand...
Exactly what I thought Swanny
 
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Lough Leane has a good favourite's chance in the 19:15 at Lingfield this evening. Hector Crouch on board for the David Simcock yard.

6/4 (Unibet) best price at time of writing.
 
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Steward’s Cup.
Spanish Star. NAP.
In the form of his life at 8 years old.
4 times a winner at Goodwood.
Likes cut in the ground.
Stays 7 furlongs- got to be a plus today in this ground.
What more could I want?<laugh>
PS. Don’t tell me!
 
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SwanHills said:
Now to wade through the UK and Ireland cards! Goodwood seems to be one big trap of a card, not falling for it today! Will go somewhere else for my 'also rans' <whistle> :emoticon-0100-smile
Click to expand...

Wade through them is right. Not So Glorious Goodwood went from bad to farcical on Saturday.

It seems that racing was okay to go ahead on Heavy ground for the first four races, culminating in the Stewards’ Cup – the last ITV race of the week – but then the meeting was abandoned on safety grounds with the authorities not required to reimburse any paying punters on their ticket prices.

I knew on Monday that I would not be having a bet all week as the going was reported as Soft before they even started and the weather forecast was bad. ITV have done their best bullsh*tting job all week talking up Paddington beating a French Group 3 horse winning the Sussex amongst others. Credit to Tom Marquand for winning a couple of the big races with front running tactics and brickbats to Frankie Dettori for his riding of two of his fancied mounts, holding them up at the rear where they had absolutely no chance of winning.

I wonder how much of Sunday’s Haydock card (Heavy ground) they will get through before they decide to abandon it. They should get as far as the 5:15 as the first three races are sprints.
 
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QuarterMoonII said:
Wade through them is right. Not So Glorious Goodwood went from bad to farcical on Saturday.

It seems that racing was okay to go ahead on Heavy ground for the first four races, culminating in the Stewards’ Cup – the last ITV race of the week – but then the meeting was abandoned on safety grounds with the authorities not required to reimburse any paying punters on their ticket prices.

I knew on Monday that I would not be having a bet all week as the going was reported as Soft before they even started and the weather forecast was bad. ITV have done their best bullsh*tting job all week talking up Paddington beating a French Group 3 horse winning the Sussex amongst others. Credit to Tom Marquand for winning a couple of the big races with front running tactics and brickbats to Frankie Dettori for his riding of two of his fancied mounts, holding them up at the rear where they had absolutely no chance of winning.

I wonder how much of Sunday’s Haydock card (Heavy ground) they will get through before they decide to abandon it. They should get as far as the 5:15 as the first three races are sprints.
Click to expand...


Why wouldn’t you take advantage of the heavy ground and bet horses that like the heavy ground? Ok, you don’t always get races run to form when the ground differs, but this week has given plenty of opportunities.
 
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NassauBoard said:
Why wouldn’t you take advantage of the heavy ground and bet horses that like the heavy ground? Ok, you don’t always get races run to form when the ground differs, but this week has given plenty of opportunities.
Click to expand...
I’ve said before the flat isnt my thing, neither is much of the summer jumping either but I still like a bet. From a punting perspective I think flat racing becomes much more straightforward on easy ground. In most races you can rule out half the field at least just on the going.
 
NassauBoard said:
Why wouldn’t you take advantage of the heavy ground and bet horses that like the heavy ground? Ok, you don’t always get races run to form when the ground differs, but this week has given plenty of opportunities.
Click to expand...

Apologies for being an old fossil but generally I have found betting on the flat when the ground is soft to be a loss making experience as there is always something with hooves bigger than dinner plates that comes and wins. I am only interested in recent form – not something that won three years ago when it was hock deep and might do it again today.

When it gets towards the end of the flat season and the ground is soft and the form is worthless I just stop and leave the winter to the slow old plodders.

The way it is going – obviously all climate change – I will pack in betting altogether as the sport will just become a lottery. I only had five bets in the whole of July.
 
QuarterMoonII said:
Apologies for being an old fossil but generally I have found betting on the flat when the ground is soft to be a loss making experience as there is always something with hooves bigger than dinner plates that comes and wins. I am only interested in recent form – not something that won three years ago when it was hock deep and might do it again today.

When it gets towards the end of the flat season and the ground is soft and the form is worthless I just stop and leave the winter to the slow old plodders.

The way it is going – obviously all climate change – I will pack in betting altogether as the sport will just become a lottery. I only had five bets in the whole of July.
Click to expand...
On the other hand QM, If a horse has shown its best form on soft/ heavy and has either:
  • shown it recently or
  • has recently performed well on a sounder surface in a higher grade without getting placed (thereby keeping a handy handicap mark and maybe a decent price
it has to be worth a look. Obviously the other runners have to be assessed in the same way; something I often forget to do. I'm afraid that is down to laziness
 
Ron said:
On the other hand QM, If a horse has shown its best form on soft/ heavy and has either:
  • shown it recently or
  • has recently performed well on a sounder surface in a higher grade without getting placed (thereby keeping a handy handicap mark and maybe a decent price
it has to be worth a look. Obviously the other runners have to be assessed in the same way; something I often forget to do. I'm afraid that is down to laziness
Click to expand...

Ron, the trouble is that there are so few horses that really relish heavy ground so that their ability is massively better.
I remember a classy horse from the sixties called Sovrango, trained by Harry Wragg.
They prayed like hell for rain before the Epsom Derby but it never came, and Sovrango finished fourth.
Ironically Wragg won the race with his outsider, Psidium- a horse Lester Piggott said was useless after riding him in France.
The fact was that Sovrango never lost on soft ground- he hacked up in both the Geoffrey Freer and the Ormonde Stakes two years running for both on soft ground, but the going tends to be good to firm for most prestigious races in England.
 
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Ron said:
On the other hand QM, If a horse has shown its best form on soft/ heavy and has either:
  • shown it recently or
  • has recently performed well on a sounder surface in a higher grade without getting placed (thereby keeping a handy handicap mark and maybe a decent price
it has to be worth a look. Obviously the other runners have to be assessed in the same way; something I often forget to do. I'm afraid that is down to laziness
Click to expand...

There are lots of famous examples of horses that were best on soft ground but amazingly the bookies can see that as well so when the ground was soft those horses were favourites; and they did not always win.

As we get towards the end of the flat season and the ground has gone soft you will find lots of horses manage to win just one race because the horse is of limited ability so the trainer will get it as fit as he can for just the one run and it will plough through the mud and win as the fast horses are slowed down. Getting it as fit as possible and trying the same trick on fast ground does not work because the fastest horses win.

My laziness is down to simple statistical analysis. I have always kept a record of my bets and at the end of the year added it up to see what I have won/lost. Then look at the losing streaks and what did they have in common. Plus I have learned over the years to stop giving horses another chance to get back what I lost on them last time. Most of the horses in my tracker got in it before they had run four times but they are hardly ever backable prices again if they are with top yards.
 
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Tamerlo said:
Ron, the trouble is that there are so few horses that really relish heavy ground so that their ability is massively better.
I remember a classy horse from the sixties called Sovrango, trained by Harry Wragg.
They prayed like hell for rain before the Epsom Derby but it never came, and Sovrango finished fourth.
Ironically Wragg won the race with his outsider, Psidium- a horse Lester Piggott said was useless after riding him in France.
The fact was that Sovrango never lost on soft ground- he hacked up in both the Geoffrey Freer and the Ormonde Stakes two years running for both on soft ground, but the going tends to be good to firm for most prestigious races in England.
Click to expand...
Hi Tam, when Psidium won the Derby it was like a road
 
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