Sunday's Meetings Gowran Flat 8 Races 1:25-5:25p.m. Downpatrick N/H 7 Races 1:45-5:15p.m. Doncaster Flat 7 Races 2:05-5:35p.m. Salisbury Flat 7 Races 2:15-5:45p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
In terms of admission prices, it is the second most expensive day in French racing. Why does it cost more for the Prix De Diane (French Oaks) than the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby)? Simple: on the infield at Chantilly racecourse today there is a large fashion fair and a stage with French artistes performing. Having been a couple of times, I can confirm that there will be more women not watching the racing there than racing punters in the grandstand. The British bookies’ betting on the big race at 3:05 bears no resemblance to what it will look like on the PMU as the Gosden filly will not be shorter than the French Pouliches winner; and the other two key local runners will attract more support than their British odds suggest. Depending on the pedigree of the winner, there might be a new Arc favourite by 3:10. The going report from Chantilly is 3.4 on the penetrometer, which equates to Good to Soft. The sole runner for Aidan O’Brien is Never Ending Story, who won the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial but was fifth behind Blue Rose Cen in the Pouliches and does not seem likely to make up the five lengths over the extra two furlongs; and was more than five lengths third to the same filly in the Marcel Boussac last year. Son Joseph sends over Caroline Street, who won a Group 3 over this distance at Naas, is having only her sixth start and could go well at a big price. Karl Burke’s Novakai is having a bout of seconditis but in good races: the Group 2 May Hill and Group 1 Fillies’ Mile last term and four lengths second to Oaks winner Soul Sister in the Group 3 Musidora at this distance. So she should do better than her odds suggest but she has a tendency to be keen and will being one of the front runners be good here? It looks like Wise Girl may be in to make the running for stablemate Blue Rose Cen. Running Lion left her previous three wins on the kitty litter well behind to slam her rivals easily in the Pretty Polly on soft ground at this trip, so she is clearly the best of the raiders crossing the Channel. She played up in the stalls at Epsom and was withdrawn, so it has to be a worry that there is going to be a huge Rule 4 on bets today. German raider Lady Ewelina is unbeaten in three starts at home, the daughter of Mukhadram having won a Group 3 over a mile at Cologne on her only 2023 start, under today’s jockey. She should stay but whether that form is good enough I cannot say; however, she does appear to be a hold-up horse so do not expect to see her early. A number of the home defence are lightly raced and either have form below pattern level or they are held by fancied runners. Lindy was runner up to Blue Rose Cen in both the Prix de la Grotte and the Pouliches after winning two races in the provinces at two. Australia filly Tasmania won a five runner conditions race over course and distance last time but that surely is not good enough. Frankel filly Left Sea won a Listed race at this trip by three lengths last time but prior to that had been eighth in the Prix Saint Alary won by Jannah Rose from Elusive Princess in pretty much a blanket finish. That is the top Diane trial in France and Carlos Laffon-Parias’s filly arrives unbeaten in three starts. Andre Fabre’s Pensee Du Jour has won all of her three career starts this year, most recently the Group 3 Prix Penelope at Saint Cloud, where she was 2/5 on the PMU to follow up her previous victory on the same track. She won on her debut on the Chantilly kitty litter, beating Crown Princesse by four lengths and that one went on to finish third in the Prix Saint Alary. So a form line through the Fabrice Chappet filly (that I backed in the Group 1) makes the Fabre filly the real deal – if we are prepared to accept that the kitty litter form translates to turf. Can Diane Wildenstein win the Prix De Diane? Blue Rose Cen is the form pick here but she goes beyond a mile for the first time. Running Lion may well be the best of the raiders, which is why she is vying for favouritism with the Pouliches winner. I liked the way Jannah Rose won the Saint Alary but as form it looks suspicious as it was a typical French race where they ended up in a heap at the line. So my thought for the day is that the form line from that race through Crown Princesse is valid and Andre Fabre’s PENSEE DU JOUR will collect this and become favourite for the Arc as her pedigree suggests she will stay a mile and a half. The each way play would be Karl Burke’s Novakai as he has won this before with Laurens.
Chantilly 15,05 Novakai 16/1 e/w four places, 14/1 sky five places Downpatrick 13,45 Dylan's Day 5/1 bet365 and PP 14,20 Now Is The Hour 6/1 14,55 Presenting Doyen 13/2 e/w four places
Excellent analyses, QMII, but, man oh man, Chantilly is a tough nut today.. Favourite rider of mine is Mickaël Barzalona, but I think he'll find it pretty tough going today to get a winner? Think I will just watch it all. Good luck with Pensee Du Jour.
The Nathaniel filly, Malka, has a decent chance in the Class-5 Stakes event at Salisbury (16:35). Main rival appears to be Mistral Star who still has something to prove? Daniel Muscutt rides for the Kevin Phillppart De Foy stable. 10/3 best price in most places at time of writing.
No complaints there, Malka tried hard but the winner, Mistral Star, has now shown why she is so highly-regarded by her connections. Good race.
No luck with mine... Thank you for the compliment, but I was clearly wrong in my assessment of the winner Blue Rose Cen. I was worried that she was just a miler, on pedigree. Now my concern is that they will take their chance in the Arc but the bookies seem to take my view as there are colts at shorter prices.
