The 2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

[Ron]

On July 10th this year I started a thread for the 2022 Arc (on FB) and the only bet I recommended was "the tasty 16/1 ew Alpinista

I started the 2023 version early (11th Oct) and am replicating the main bits here, if any non FB members are interested

VADENI ew 14/1 is my only recommended bet at this stage but, as for 2022 I've added "With a run" choices
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2023 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe ante post Preview
I can't see the lovely Alpinista being in training next year, so not sure why she is ante post fav
First on the list is Vadeni
Vadeni being kept in training for a second tilt at the Arc. As far as I am concerned, he's proved the distance is no problem and handles any ground; so, must have a good chance next year.
Vadeni 14/1 ew

Next is Luxembourg
Ran a great race considering not the best of preps, and having pulled a muscle in the race. Ante post fav for this year's Derby prior to injury. Bit of a risk of recurring injury, so
Luxembourg 33/1 ew with a run (guessing 20/1)

Next is Desert Crown
Clear fav for this year before injury. Impressive winner of Derby and not risked since. Should be fully recovered and could be clear fav if he comes back sound. Slight risk so
Desert Crown 20/1 ew with a run (guessing 10/1)

Finally, at this stage, is Francesco Clemente
Fancied this one as a dark horse for this year. Romped home in a Newmarket handicap in July and installed fav for the Great Voltigeur but hasn't been seen since. No idea what the problem is but this is clearly a progressive type. By Dubawi out of a Galileo mare he has the pedigree for the job. Obviously a risk and no odds yet available so,
Francesco Clemente ew with a run

 

[Ron]

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Didn't run in any of them

 

[Ron]

So, apparently, many in the Stoute yard think Bay Bridge is a better horse than Desert Crown, though at this stage he needs the right ground. I'm not sure what that says about Desert Crown. Is he not the super horse he was hyped up to be? I see Bay Bridge has been put in at 20s (backed into 16s) for the Arc, but I wouldn't be interested given what we know at present. Adayar had a poor prep for the race and Baaeed just didn't have the speed on the ground and ran well below his best. Interestingly the winner averaged 12.946 secs per furlong over 10f but, two races earlier, Emily Upjohn averaged 12.81 secs per furlong over 12f. I think I would prefer the filly over 12f of the Arc. She isn't on my short list for the Arc but maybe she should be

 

[Ron]

I will be looking for a dark horse and I'm keeping an eye on the unraced with nice pedigrees. Quite a few entered for the Derby and one might just pop out on the AW in the coming months

 

[QuarterMoonII]

At the initial entry stage for the Longchamp showpiece – on 1st October this year – there were just 74 entries. I think that reflects the fact that for the bigger operations, entering a dozen horses and having to pay more at each declaration stage is not cost effective when they can simply supplement any horse that suddenly turns out to be better than they expected.

It will cost €120,000 to supplement a horse on 27th September. The initial forfeit date is 25th September and the second forfeit date is the following day. The final declaration date is 28th September and the maximum field is 24.

Looking at the 74 entries, the obvious standouts amongst the older horses are Vadeni (Jean-Claude Rouget), Adayar and Hurricane Lane (both Charlie Appleby), Bay Bridge and Desert Crown (both Sir Michael Stoute), Westover (Ralph Beckett), Pyledriver (William Muir/Chris Grassick), Luxembourg and Point Lonsdale (both Aidan O’Brien) and Emily Upjohn, Nashwa and Free Wind (all John and Thady Gosden).

The three year old part of the entry does consist of many names that we have seen in the Classic trials and the Epsom Classic betting, such as Dubai Mile and Dear My Friend (both Charlie Johnston), Flying Honours and Military Order (both Charlie Appleby), Arrest and Running Lion (both John and Thady Gosden), Jannah Rose (Carlos Laffon-Parias), Never Ending Story and Savethelastdance (both Aidan O’Brien).

Japanese trainers are notable by their scarcity this year after entering half a dozen in 2022. Through Seven Seas (Tomohito Ozeki), Saliera (Sakae Kunieda) and Dura Erede (Manabu Ikezoe) were the only three I could spot, all of which are Japanese bred; however, I know that Coolmore have partnerships with a couple of Japanese breeders that may be part owners of O’Brien runners.

In terms of numbers of entries these are the top trainers:

9 Aidan O’Brien
7 John and Thady Gosden
6 Charlie Appleby
6 Jean-Claude Rouget
5 Andre Fabre

Interesting that the Aga Khan only has two initial entries (both with Jean-Claude Rouget and none for Francis-Henri Graffard, who replaced retired Alain de Royer-Dupré) and there are none from Godolphin’s French operation.

So there has to be some chance that we could end up with an Arc featuring two Derby winners and an Oaks winner.

 

[Ron]

I think the Gosden's best chance might be the 100/1 outsider Francesco Clemente. But he must have been entered in at least 8 group races since his last race. He is either a slow developer, or difficult to train

I laid out Vadeni, Desert Crown, Luxembourg and Francesco Clemente as my shortlist straight after last year's Arc. I would also fancy Adayar but the trainer stated that he would be aimed at the 10f races (to enhance his stud value, apparently) but if he picks up a couple of G1 10f races, he could switch to 12, I suppose, which would put him firmly in the picture

 

[Ron]

At the initial entry stage for the Longchamp showpiece – on 1st October this year – there were just 74 entries. I think that reflects the fact that for the bigger operations, entering a dozen horses and having to pay more at each declaration stage is not cost effective when they can simply supplement any horse that suddenly turns out to be better than they expected.

It will cost €120,000 to supplement a horse on 27th September. The initial forfeit date is 25th September and the second forfeit date is the following day. The final declaration date is 28th September and the maximum field is 24.

Looking at the 74 entries, the obvious standouts amongst the older horses are Vadeni (Jean-Claude Rouget), Adayar and Hurricane Lane (both Charlie Appleby), Bay Bridge and Desert Crown (both Sir Michael Stoute), Westover (Ralph Beckett), Pyledriver (William Muir/Chris Grassick), Luxembourg and Point Lonsdale (both Aidan O’Brien) and Emily Upjohn, Nashwa and Free Wind (all John and Thady Gosden).

The three year old part of the entry does consist of many names that we have seen in the Classic trials and the Epsom Classic betting, such as Dubai Mile and Dear My Friend (both Charlie Johnston), Flying Honours and Military Order (both Charlie Appleby), Arrest and Running Lion (both John and Thady Gosden), Jannah Rose (Carlos Laffon-Parias), Never Ending Story and Savethelastdance (both Aidan O’Brien).

Japanese trainers are notable by their scarcity this year after entering half a dozen in 2022. Through Seven Seas (Tomohito Ozeki), Saliera (Sakae Kunieda) and Dura Erede (Manabu Ikezoe) were the only three I could spot, all of which are Japanese bred; however, I know that Coolmore have partnerships with a couple of Japanese breeders that may be part owners of O’Brien runners.

In terms of numbers of entries these are the top trainers:

9 Aidan O’Brien
7 John and Thady Gosden
6 Charlie Appleby
6 Jean-Claude Rouget
5 Andre Fabre

Interesting that the Aga Khan only has two initial entries (both with Jean-Claude Rouget and none for Francis-Henri Graffard, who replaced retired Alain de Royer-Dupré) and there are none from Godolphin’s French operation.

So there has to be some chance that we could end up with an Arc featuring two Derby winners and an Oaks winner.

.... or 3 Derby winners even

 

[Ron]

The Oaks fav is 12/1, Derby fav 50/1. St Leger betting has Derby fav at 8/1 fav, Oaks fav at 14s

Seems a bit odd to me

 

[Ron]

Could someone get a quote for Francesco Clemente for the Arc with a run ew 5 places please

 

[gillamandango]

Pulled from the Brigadier Gerard tomorrow, Frankie was jocked up. Wonder will he take up the Listed Goodwood engagement at the weekend under Rab, arguably a race he should win by half the track if an Arc contender. Ground would have been ideal tomorrow too.

I think the Gosden's best chance might be the 100/1 outsider Francesco Clemente. But he must have been entered in at least 8 group races since his last race. He is either a slow developer, or difficult to train

 

[Ron]

Pulled from the Brigadier Gerard tomorrow, Frankie was jocked up. Wonder will he take up the Listed Goodwood engagement at the weekend under Rab, arguably a race he should win by half the track if an Arc contender. Ground would have been ideal tomorrow too.

Not surprised at that. Keeps being entered for major races and then pulled out. I expect he'll go for the listed race and hope he can win that without too much effort; even though he isn't fav

 

[QuarterMoonII]

Could someone get a quote for Francesco Clemente for the Arc with a run ew 5 places please

Four months before the race you have little chance of getting NRNB and imagine the Rule 4 on the 50 entries that must pull out or be balloted out. You won’t get five places on the day unless it is 1/6 the odds and half the field are single figure prices. People have no idea what a rip off each way betting has become since the standard place terms were mandated.

What about just backing the Gosdens to win the race or Frankie to win the race?

The thing is that I reckon it is more likely that Frankie will be on Arrest, Emily Upjohn, Free Wind or Nashwa if one of those three makes it to post. At this moment, I would like Free Wind after her comeback win.

 

[Ron]

Four months before the race you have little chance of getting NRNB and imagine the Rule 4 on the 50 entries that must pull out or be balloted out. You won’t get five places on the day unless it is 1/6 the odds and half the field are single figure prices. People have no idea what a rip off each way betting has become since the standard place terms were mandated.

What about just backing the Gosdens to win the race or Frankie to win the race?

The thing is that I reckon it is more likely that Frankie will be on Arrest, Emily Upjohn, Free Wind or Nashwa if one of those three makes it to post. At this moment, I would like Free Wind after her comeback win.

Thanks QM

 

[Ron]

If FC doesn't run, the only definite ante post bet I would have is Vadeni at 14/1

Desert Crown I am watching to see how he has progressed
Luxembourg I am watching to see how well he has recovered
Adayar I am watching to see if the trainer decides to go for it
Emily Upjohn is interesting. I remember posting at some stage that, at the then odds, I would rather back her than some other fancied runner but can't remember who that other runner was

 

[Ron]

Found it
https://www.not606.com/threads/the-2023-prix-de-larc-de-triomphe.404268/#post-16361218

Forgot I had already started an Arc thread for 2023

I'll merge the 2 threads QM

 

[Ron]

I see that, apart from the G2 Hardwick at Ascot and the Arc, all DC's entries are G1s over 10f. Interesting considering he won the Derby. Same reason as Adayar?

 

[Ron]

So we are looking at the Hardwick Stakes (separate thread) for better clues re the Arc

 

[Ron]

The Brigadier Gerrard Stakes yesterday was just under a quarter of a second faster than the Class 5 handicap 90 mins earlier, the winner of that race carrying 4lb more than Hukum. Hukum shortened to 12s and 14s for the Arc as a result

Vadeni's odds all over the place, all prices from 8/1 to14/1 now

 

[Ron]

Equinox and Savethelastdance first and second favs. Punters must be hoping the Arc is run in a bog

 

[Ron]

Francesco Clemente runs tomorrow. If he sluices up, that 100/1 will disappear. Amanda wants to back him at 100/1 but I can't place bets. Any offers?