Transfer Rumours Transfer Rumours thread

[InBiscanWeTrust]

I think you’re both right tbh.

Brighton have a very data driven approach and almost have to scout far and wide and pick players up at 18-21 in South America or European lower leagues because they just can’t compete financially with big clubs on highly known and rated players. Even their big money signings have been relatively unknowns, Cucurella, estupinian both from Spain but mid table and lower clubs.

Because they’ve been mid-lower table they can obviously take a few more risks because they aren’t challenging for titles/cups in regular bases and don’t need the players to hit ground running. So instead of spending 50m on 1 or 2 players who must delivery, they buy 4/5 of them, give them a few years out on loan (have few link ups, especially with club in Belgium that bloom also owns) then either get them into first team or try move them on at either cost or above to make a small profit.

To do that, they’ve had to use 1 or 2 big sales to fund those 4/5 20 year olds.

It’s essentially what chelsea did at start of ffp but at a more targeted approach.

Could say they’ve got lucky that they’ve sold players and managed to have a replacement lined up internally to replace. Or could say it’s fantastic forward planning. No doubt it’s somewhere in the middle.

Bissouma goes. Caicedo already there to replace.
white goes, lamptey/Veltman to replace.
Cucurella goes, they go and use 17m of that 60m to bring in estupinian.
Trossard goes, Ferguson gets promoted to lead the line with Mitoma used more on the wing.

They have a hell of a lot of players out on loan. Lots of South Americans and polish players. A lot of them won’t get near the first team and you wont hear about. But they’ll move them on for 5-10m each and use that to invest in the next batch. It’s smart work for a team that can’t compete for 30/40m signings in 150k a week

 

[Solid Air]

You love telling me how I get my opinions and basically how gullible I must be, based on the fact that you don't happen to agree.

Brighton's owner has made his fortune from gambling. He's a maths graduate and uses his love of both maths and gambling to come up with a unique way of scouting which no other club is doing. The man is proud of his achievements and how he's done it. Look at how he uses his analytics company to pick players and look at how those players have performed for him. It's self evident that his method is working. Will it work 100% all the time? No. No gambler is 100% successful with every gamble. But when looking at how and why Brighton have risen up a division and kept on improving and then finding the owner waxing lyrical about how he's done it, why should we question it?

Heard an interview with him iirc prior to Potter leaving though the rumours were circulating saying they kept a number of managers under watch constantly to be ready if their existing manager left .De Zerbi naturally was one of them and despite his outbursts he has been a great success so far .

 

[InBiscanWeTrust]

Heard an interview with him iirc prior to Potter leaving though the rumours were circulating saying they kept a number of managers under watch constantly to be ready if their existing manager left .De Zerbi naturally was one of them and despite his outbursts he has been a great success so far .

Think it was probably Paul Barber as remember seeing him interviewed about it all. Esscctly as you say, not only do they have background on players but on numerous managers and styles so will have w replacement who can slot in with the style and structure in place.

Does make a bit of a mockery out of some of the clubs who sack a manager and then have no idea who to replace

 

[THE FOOL]

I think you’re both right tbh.

Brighton have a very data driven approach and almost have to scout far and wide and pick players up at 18-21 in South America or European lower leagues because they just can’t compete financially with big clubs on highly known and rated players. Even their big money signings have been relatively unknowns, Cucurella, estupinian both from Spain but mid table and lower clubs.

Because they’ve been mid-lower table they can obviously take a few more risks because they aren’t challenging for titles/cups in regular bases and don’t need the players to hit ground running. So instead of spending 50m on 1 or 2 players who must delivery, they buy 4/5 of them, give them a few years out on loan (have few link ups, especially with club in Belgium that bloom also owns) then either get them into first team or try move them on at either cost or above to make a small profit.

To do that, they’ve had to use 1 or 2 big sales to fund those 4/5 20 year olds.

It’s essentially what chelsea did at start of ffp but at a more targeted approach.

Could say they’ve got lucky that they’ve sold players and managed to have a replacement lined up internally to replace. Or could say it’s fantastic forward planning. No doubt it’s somewhere in the middle.

Bissouma goes. Caicedo already there to replace.
white goes, lamptey/Veltman to replace.
Cucurella goes, they go and use 17m of that 60m to bring in estupinian.
Trossard goes, Ferguson gets promoted to lead the line with Mitoma used more on the wing.

They have a hell of a lot of players out on loan. Lots of South Americans and polish players. A lot of them won’t get near the first team and you wont hear about. But they’ll move them on for 5-10m each and use that to invest in the next batch. It’s smart work for a team that can’t compete for 30/40m signings in 150k a week

It's a good strategy but very risk.

There's a number if clubs that do it, not just Brighton.

Brighton are going through a purple patch of finding gems that can be sold for mega money and then seem to have a better replacement ready anyway.

But purple patches don't last. I seem to recall I think it was Leicester doing similar, sold people for ridiculous amounts but had their replacements lined up that cost a fraction, it may have been Southampton thinking about it.

Actually it may have been both. Little patches if finding absolute gems, but you can use all the analytics in the world, there's also a fair slice of luck involved.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

This is a bit like when you were telling me that city's success hasn't been because of financial doping.

Btw where do you get your information from on various topics? You don't read like the rest of us by any chance .......

Well I apply critical thinking to all things offered up.

City's success is not down to financial doping solely. You simply don't deliver what they have year in year out without ALSO securing the best possible players and manager for the money you dope with. Cheslea and utd are an example of how not to do it.

City have locked in on certain players and played them til they drop. David silva, sergio aguero, KDB. theres no hunting the shiny new toy there. They know what they got, the ensured what they got would never want to go (there's under the table going on 100%) and they secured the best of barc'as senior staff and former manager.

City have high standards applied by the same people year on year. Its that simple. when you do that with the financial ability to buy a kack grealish or a haaland on 900k a week then inevitbale you'll have success.

 

[johnsonsbaby]

Heard an interview with him iirc prior to Potter leaving though the rumours were circulating saying they kept a number of managers under watch constantly to be ready if their existing manager left .De Zerbi naturally was one of them and despite his outbursts he has been a great success so far .

Bloom is the ultimate professional gambler. He's very astute and looks like he's always one step ahead focusing on the next move and the next ......

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

Think it was probably Paul Barber as remember seeing him interviewed about it all. Esscctly as you say, not only do they have background on players but on numerous managers and styles so will have w replacement who can slot in with the style and structure in place.

Does make a bit of a mockery out of some of the clubs who sack a manager and then have no idea who to replace

yes it does.

The point on Brighton being a huge amount of the players could be grouped in a similar type of stature and technique so there's a clear underlying strategy at play.

I've no doubt they did the same with managers and such. compare and contrast to the cheslea shortlist that looks like it was made after drinks in a posh strip club on a saturday night given the vast contrast in styles and approaches in those 4 names.

 

[InBiscanWeTrust]

It's a good strategy but very risk.

There's a number if clubs that do it, not just Brighton.

Brighton are going through a purple patch of finding gems that can be sold for mega money and then seem to have a better replacement ready anyway.

But purple patches don't last. I seem to recall I think it was Leicester doing similar, sold people for ridiculous amounts but had their replacements lined up that cost a fraction, it may have been Southampton thinking about it.

Actually it may have been both. Little patches if finding absolute gems, but you can use all the analytics in the world, there's also a fair slice of luck involved.

I think it’s a strategy for a lot of those mid table clubs that can’t afford to spend big money on one player. Sell 1 player for big money. Use that to reinvest in 4/5 in hope that squad improves or you find a couple of gems and repeat. Saints did it well but not seen many do it consistently for 5/6/7/8 years and be successful. As you say eventually the bubble bursts.

However, it does make it a lot easier when the club have a style. Managers brought in are keeping the same style (with personal tweaks) so that if when manager moves or players move, you’ve not got load of players who aren’t familiar with the system.

 

[johnsonsbaby]

It's a good strategy but very risk.

There's a number if clubs that do it, not just Brighton.

Brighton are going through a purple patch of finding gems that can be sold for mega money and then seem to have a better replacement ready anyway.

But purple patches don't last. I seem to recall I think it was Leicester doing similar, sold people for ridiculous amounts but had their replacements lined up that cost a fraction, it may have been Southampton thinking about it.

Actually it may have been both. Little patches if finding absolute gems, but you can use all the analytics in the world, there's also a fair slice of luck involved.

You're right all clubs will be using data analysts, we have, or had, our own very good ones. The difference is Brighton have taken it a step further. And yes, you're right again, luck plays a big part. You can scout the perfect player who then gets injured or can't settle in the new country, on and off the pitch. It's all a gamble and Brighton are the only club owned by a professional gambler. He's very good at what he does.

 

[saintanton]

Bloom is the ultimate professional gambler. He's very astute and looks like he's always one step ahead focusing on the next move and the next ......

I know nothing about him, what does he gamble at?

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

@moreinjuredthanowen

I've already given the stats for game including games against the bottom half teams where goals against were 0.68 gpg In a situation like that and given we threw one in v leeds and threw two in v forest i'd actually say the statistics tell us we didn't do all that great at the back v forest and leeds.

statistically speaking of course.

but i'll help you out.

here is the update after block 8 (fulham game was pp but they are top half just baout)

bottom half
Games played 17/20
Goals scored 29
Goal conceded 12
Games won 8
Games drawn 5
Games lost 4
Win ratio 48%
Draw ratio 29%
Loss ratio 24%
Goals per game 1.71
Goals conceded per game 0.71

We've managed to increase the GPG both for and against with these results. I'd contend forgotten man jota has as much to do wit hthis as anyone but the stats don't tell me we were rock solid against these opponents.

think on those goals.

leeds, konate caught out dawdling on ball. no out ball on.
Forest. team all crabbed over to one side. konate making his man in the RB slot and ball is long thown over trents head. not picking anyone up. konate really should be in side and leaving that to the RB (who seemingly doesn't now exist)

Whats going on. is konate ****?
Should he be the latest scape goat?
Or is he getting shafted by this system? (not trent mind, the system)

 

[johnsonsbaby]

Well I apply critical thinking to all things offered up.

City's success is not down to financial doping solely. You simply don't deliver what they have year in year out without ALSO securing the best possible players and manager for the money you dope with. Cheslea and utd are an example of how not to do it.

City have locked in on certain players and played them til they drop. David silva, sergio aguero, KDB. theres no hunting the shiny new toy there. They know what they got, the ensured what they got would never want to go (there's under the table going on 100%) and they secured the best of barc'as senior staff and former manager.

City have high standards applied by the same people year on year. Its that simple. when you do that with the financial ability to buy a kack grealish or a haaland on 900k a week then inevitbale you'll have success.

I too apply critical thinking. I just don't write all my thoughts down.

The only critical thinking you need when looking at city is how they did before the money and how they've done after. You can list players and managers till your heart is content but the money is the crucial factor. You don't hit the jackpot and employ Roy Hodgson.

 

[johnsonsbaby]

I know nothing about him, what does he gamble at?

He made his money in the Asian gambling market and became a professional poker player winning major tournaments around the world.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

I too apply critical thinking. I just don't write all my thoughts down.

The only critical thinking you need when looking at city is how they did before the money and how they've done after. You can list players and managers till your heart is content but the money is the crucial factor. You don't hit the jackpot and employ Roy Hodgson.

yet Chelsea hit the jackpot with 600mil on players and appointed Potter and then lampard

 

[Zanjinho]

only you. only you.

 

[johnsonsbaby]

yet Chelsea hit the jackpot with 600mil on players and appointed Potter and then lampard

I didn't know they hired Potter in 2003

 

[saintanton]

He made his money in the Asian gambling market and became a professional poker player winning major tournaments around the world.

Ok. People will probably argue with me on this, but I don't class poker as gambling. I think of it as a game of skill with an element of luck thrown in. The luck factor means anyone can win occasionally, but in the long term those who know the game best win most often.
I've played a fair bit of poker - I'm distinctly average at it, btw - and it's always the better players who consistently come out on top.
Bad players win occasionally, good players lose occasionally.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

I didn't know they hired Potter in 2003

they hit the Todd jackpot of course!

the putin stooge jackpot was only a few hundred million.

 

[johnsonsbaby]

Ok. People will probably argue with me on this, but I don't class poker as gambling. I think of it as a game of skill with an element of luck thrown in. The luck factor means anyone can win occasionally, but in the long term those who know the game best win most often.
I've played a fair bit of poker - I'm distinctly average at it, btw - and it's always the better players who consistently come out on top.
Bad players win occasionally, good players lose occasionally.

You've probably just described Brighton in the transfer market.

I probably didn't answer your question fully or correctly, thinking about it. Bloom is a gambler turned sports bettor. He is the head of a private betting syndicate called Starlizard, the biggest in Britain. One business site says "Starlizard's employees use complex statistical models to generate football odds that are more accurate than those offered by bookmakers. They take into account things like the weather forecast and the overall morale of the team."

I didn't ever intend writing this much about Brighton's owner. I just find his approach to be novel and interesting.

 

[Solid Air]

they hit the Todd jackpot of course!

the putin stooge jackpot was only a few hundred million.

err £1.5 bn was the amount that"the Putin stooge" had injected into his club asloans which he then to get round ffp turned into "equity" ,
kept telling Tobes that they were not living within their means but he wouldn't have it but that was how it was done .